I don't mean to freak anybody out or anything but:
An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life and health expectancy has run the numbers for McCain, 72, and Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of the candidates dying in office, adjusted for their known health problems.
McCain would be the oldest president to begin a first term in office. By the end of a second term, Jan. 20, 2017, he would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates.
This is not the first time I've heard this number (or others) tossed around, but it is the first time I've seen them published credibly.
It gets worse:
Illness is another issue...
The firm estimates that McCain has a health expectancy of 8.4 years, while Obama can expect another 21.9 years of good health. The calculations are from January, 2009, covering two terms in office for either candidate. McCain, if he's like others in his age group, would have a cushion of just about five months.
Read another way, there's about a 50% chance that McCain will develop a debilitating illness by the end of a second term, should he serve one.
I know that some of you find this discussion morbid, and would rather we not talk about it.
I myself shy away from poking fun at McCain for his age and the symptoms that accompany it.
But this isn't about picking on McCain for being old, and it's certainly not about picking on Sarah Palin for being a woman. It's about acknowledging a major risk that this candidate has created by naming as his successor someone without the firepower or credibility to serve as president.
In my own family, I know conservatives and Republicans who think Sarah Palin is a joke, but who intend to vote for McCain because they are in denial about his age and his health. This article is going straight to those people as soon as I post this diary.
I sincerely believe that even most loyal Republicans -- once they stop to imagine it -- will find themselves unable to fathom the idea of President Sarah Palin. We need to help them understand that a vote for John McCain is akin to playing Russian Roulette with our country's future.
1 in 4? I hate those odds.