Mississippi, which over the last decade or so has easily been the sleepiest state for Congressional elections (closest race: 13 points), wakes up for 2008, as a competitive Senate race and a pair of open-seat House races highlight the field as the state's Congressional filing deadline passed on Friday.
For reasons I will get when we go past the jump, there is cause for celebration, cause for a little disappointment, and a couple of brutal primaries in the offing.
Follow me....
First, let's kick things off with the raw list:
MS SENATE "A": Sen. Thad Cochran (R), 2006 Nominee Eric Fleming (D), Perennial Candidate Shawn O’Hara (D)
MS SENATE "B": Sen. Roger Wicker (R), Former Governor Ronnie Musgrave (D), Former Congressman Ronnie Shows (D)
MS 01 (GOP): Former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough, Southhaven Mayor Greg Davis, Randy Russell
MS 01 (DEMS): Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers, State Rep. Steve Holland, 2006 Nominee Ken Hurt, Attorney Brian Neely, Marshall Coleman
MS 02 (GOP): Richard Cook
MS 02 (DEMS): U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson, Dorothy Benford
MS 03 (GOP): Former State Senator Charlie Ross, Former USDA Official/Pickering Staffer John Rounsaville, Minister and Teacher James Broadwater, 2000 GOP Nominee Hardy Caraway, Attorney/Rankin County GOP Chair Gregg Harper, Businessman Gregory Hatcher, Businessman and Army Veteran David Landrum, Former Police Officer Bill Marcy
MS 03 (DEMS): Attorney (almost) Randy Eads, Cattle Broker Joel Gill
MS 04 (GOP): John McCay III
MS 04 (DEMS): U.S. Rep. Gene Taylor
PRIMARY ELECTION ANALYSIS
I count no less than four major primaries coming to Mississippi voters when they head to the polls on March 11th.
The Democratic Senate primary (for the "B" seat held by newly-minted U.S. Senator Roger Wicker) promises to be a bit of a showdown.
While the primary to challenge incumbent Thad Cochran is a battle of two perennial candidates (neither of whom have broken 40% in statewide elections, IIRC), the showdown to take on Senate rookie Roger Wicker pairs former Governor (1999-2003) Ronnie Musgrove with former U.S. Congressman (also 1999-2003) Ronnie Shows. Musgrove's candidacy had been rumored since Trent Lott's retirement a few months back. Shows, at one point, had been rumored to make a run at his old (but reconfigured) House district. Instead, he elected to pursue this Senate seat. Give the early edge to Musgrove, although Shows could be a formidable foe.
The hot early contest, on both sides, can be found in Mississippi's 1st district. The former home of Roger Wicker, this Northeastern Mississippi district is reliably, but not overwhelmingly conservative. According to the Cook PVI, it proves to be nearly as Democratic (R+10) than either Ohio-05 (R+10) or Virginia-01 (R+9), contested last month.
On the Republican side, the consensus seems to be forming around former Tupelo mayor Glenn McCullough Jr. Indeed, this week one of his potential rivals, state senator Alan Nunnelee, demurred from the race and also endorsed McCullough. The GOP does have two other candidates, however, and Southhaven Mayor Greg Davis may prove to be a legitimate candidate. Randy Russell rounds out the field for the GOP.
On the Democratic side, there is real potential in the candidate field. Arguably the biggest name in the field is state representative Steve Holland, but the one making the earliest splash may well be Prentiss County chancery clerk Travis Childers. Childers made some waves this week when he announced that he had already raised north of $100,000 for the race in a matter of days. Also in the race, 2006 nominee Ken Hurt and a pair of political rookies: Brian Neely and Marshall Coleman (presumably not the one from the 1994 VA Senate race).
Meanwhile, the open 3rd district will also see a very competitive GOP field go to battle. The seat, left open by Chip Pickering's decision to retire, sees no less than eight Republican contenders. Former state senator Charlie Ross has been a state-level representative from this region for a long time. Meanwhile, former USDA official John Rounsaville is well connected, having served as a staffer for both the outgoing Pickering and Governor Haley Barbour. Gregg Harper is a prosecuting attorney and a county-level GOP chairman, which might help with organization. And businessman David Landrum served notice in this district with his announcement that he raised a half-million dollars in the fourth quarter of the year. Also running is 2000 GOP nominee (in MS-02) Hardy Caraway, minister and teacher James Broadwater, businessman Gregory Hatcher, and retired police officer Bill Marcy. For the Democrats, the choices are between 30 year-old lawyer to be (bar exam pending) Randy Eads, and fifty-something cattleman Joel Gill.
GENERAL ELECTION ANALYSIS
In a state where the only whiff of excitement since 1998 came from an unexpectedly close (55-42) win for Bennie Thompson against Clinton LeSueur in 2002, this is practically a breathtaking election, given that at least two of the races threaten to be competitive.
First, let's dispense with the races that are likely to be uncompetitive. In the Senate "A" race, Thad Cochran is likely to crush either O'Hara (who he defeated 85-15 just six years ago, when O'Hara ran as a Reform Party candidate) or Fleming (who is fresh off a 64-35 defeat at the hands of Trent Lott). Both Democratic incumbents (Bennie Thompson in MS-02 and Gene Taylor in MS-04) appear to be facing novice competition that had not filed with the FEC as of the last filing period in October.
I also suspect that MS-03 will be decided in the primary. If quasi-incumbent Ronnie Shows could not hold this district (indeed, he got thumped 64-35 by Chip Pickering here in 2002), I fail to see how two political rookies are going to get it done. There just seems to be too much horsepower in the GOP primary.
As for MS-01, I see the potential for competitiveness there. Both Holland and Childers look to be respectable candidates, and the district is a bit more competitive than the 3rd district.
The marquee race, of course, is the U.S. Senate race. Either Shows or Musgrave would be a formidable opponent for Roger Wicker, who has never had to run statewide in his political career. Wicker will benefit from running in a red state in a presidential year.
One wild card--an Obama nomination could drive A-A turnout in the 2nd district. The 2nd district offered 15,000 fewer votes than any other district in the state for President back in 2004. Could that make a difference in a close election? Time...and circumstance...will tell.