While driving today, I heard an interview with the Gallup organization's chief pollster. He had been invited on to talk about the poll showing Kerry up 10.
The interviewer ended the interview by suggesting that the poll was meaningless, and that Clinton and Reagan were in trouble at this time in '96 and '84. The answer had to surprise him. The pollster noted there had been 8 elections involving incumbants since 1948. In each instance in which the incumbant was easily re-elected they NEVER trailed in the year of the election. Specifically, in no Gallup poll were the following ever shown to trail their challener:
- : Eisenhower
- : Johnson
- : Nixon
- : Reagan
- : Clinton
In the three races where the incumbant trailed in one poll, only one won:
- : Truman
- : Carter
- : Bush
His view was that Bush was looking at a tough re-election fight.
The signs of Bush's trouble extend beyond these national polls. In State polling he is showing weakness as well. For example, as one diary noted today, Bush is down 5 to Kerry in Pennsylvania. Another shows him only up 6 in Indiana, where he should be ahead by 15.
Larger picture, these early polls are the signs of a country that is increasingly looking for change. From a detached historical perspective, this is a weak incumbant.