Wow.
What a difference a day makes.
After a Tuesday where the numbers (particularly on a state-to-state level) did not seem to reflect the national surge that everyone expected, Wednesday brought with it a flood of polling that almost seemed too good to be true. Mississippi, Texas, and ARIZONA within single digits? Big leads in Florida and Virginia? Leads in Nevada and Missouri?
It was, to put it mildly, one hell of a good polling day for the Democrats, across the board. 30 polls released, and hardly a disappointment among all of them. Follow me for the details.
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
For the first day in a week, the average of the "big four" national tracking polls actually moved in John McCain's direction today, although it could easily be attributed to float within the margin of error. The Diageo/Hotline poll gave back a point, Gallup gave back two, and the other two trackers stayed steady. The net result was an average Obama lead of 6.25%, a modest drop from the previous day (7.00%).
The big news today was the flood of national stand-alone polls, almost all of which showed a solid lead for the Democratic nominee:
PEW RESEARCH: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
TIME MAGAZINE: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
AP/GfK: Obama 48%, McCain 41%
DEMOCRACY CORPS (D): Obama 49%, McCain 45%
IPSOS/MCCLATCHY: Obama 46%, McCain 42%
CBS NEWS **NEW!!**: Obama 50%, McCain 41%
Also, and this could be huge, a NBC survey of first-time voters and "lapsed voters" shows that this new bloc of voters is going incredibly heavily for Obama. How heavy? Would you believe an Obama lead of 61%-30%??
PRESIDENTIAL STATE-BY-STATE POLLS
This is where the real "holy shit" factor kicks in. Quinnipiac got the ball rolling earlier today, showing both pre-debate and post-debate polling in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. The result? Huge Obama leads. The McCain campaign was so flustered by the polls that they actually called the press in to bash the polls publicly.
Hopefully, they have those reporters on speed dial.
Because this afternoon brought confirmation, courtesy of CNN/Opinion Research. Big leads in Florida, Virginia, and Minnesota. A respectable lead in Nevada. Perhaps most amazing of all, a one-point edge in Missouri.
Add to that, two university polls: one confirming the Obama lead in Florida, the other making Arizona a lot closer than the McCain team is comfortable with.
All in all, compared to the Pollster composite trends, this was an Obama day from pillar to post. With new polls in a total of seventeen states, the momentum only went to McCain in ONE of them, the deep-blue state of Rhode Island.
ARIZONA--Arizona State U.: McCain 45%, Obama 38%, Others 1% (Obama)
FLORIDA #1--Quinnipiac: Obama 51%, McCain 43% (Obama)
FLORIDA #2--CNN: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, Others 5%
FLORIDA #3--Suffolk U.: Obama 46%, McCain 42%
FLORIDA #4--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 49%, McCain 46%
INDIANA--Research 2000: McCain 46%, Obama 45%, Others 3% (Obama)
IOWA--Research 2000: Obama 55%, McCain 39% (Obama)
MINNESOTA--CNN: Obama 53%, McCain 41%, Others 3% (Obama)
MISSISSIPPI--Rasmussen: McCain 52%, Obama 44%, Others 1% (Obama)
MISSOURI--CNN: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, Others 4% (Obama)
NEVADA #1--CNN: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, Others 5% (Obama)
NEVADA #2--Insider Advantage: Obama 48%, McCain 47%
NEW JERSEY--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 48%, McCain 39%, Others 3% (Obama)
OHIO--Quinnipiac: Obama 50%, McCain 42% (Obama)
OKLAHOMA--SurveyUSA: McCain 64%, Obama 34%, Others 1% (Obama, Amazingly)
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Quinnipiac: Obama 54%, McCain 39% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--Franklin & Marshall: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, Others 2%
PENNSYLVANIA #3--Muhlenberg College: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, Others 3%
RHODE ISLAND--Rhode Island College: Obama 45%, McCain 31% (McCain)
TENNESSEE--Rasmussen: McCain 58%, Obama 39%, Others 3% (Obama)
TEXAS--Rasmussen: McCain 52%, Obama 43%, Others 3% (Obama)
VIRGINIA--CNN: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, Others 4% (Obama)
WISCONSIN--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 49%, McCain 40%, Others 2% (Obama)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
Nine polls hit the books from outside of the Presidential race, and these are almost uniformly positive for the Democrats, as well. Aside from one GOP internal, most show at least SOME positive direction for the Democratic candidate. Included: two GOP-held House districts where the Democrat is ahead (and only one of the two is an internal poll!).
CA-04--Val Smith (R): Tom McClintock (R) 47%, Charlie Brown (D) 39%
IN-GOV--Research 2000: Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) 46%, Jill Long Thompson (D) 44%
MS-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 49%, Ronnie Musgrove (D) 47%
NJ-SEN--Strategic Vision (R): Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 48%, Dick Zimmer (R) 41%
NM-02--Hamilton Research (D): Harry Teague (D) 46%, Ed Tinsley (R) 41%
OK-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) 53%, Andrew Rice (D) 37%
PA-03--SurveyUSA: Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 49%, Rep. Phil English (R) 45%
TN-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) 56%, Bob Tuke (D) 32%
TX-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. John Cornyn (R) 50%, Rick Noriega (D) 43%
And that wraps up a very interesting day on the polling front. I'd expect another deluge of polling tomorrow in advance of the VP debate. Hopefully for loyal Democrats, tomorrow will look a lot like today...