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Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 51-40. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

Today's trackers will have Mon-Wed data.

                 Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV
Research 2000:  51 (51)    40 (41)    3         LV

Rasmussen:      51 (51)    45 (45)    2         LV
Diageo/Hotline: 47 (47)    42 (41)    3.2       RV  
Gallup:         48 (49)    44 (43)    2         RV

TIME:           50 (46)    43 (41)    3         LV (data in parentheses from 7/31 - 8/4)
Pew:            49 (46)    43 (46)    3         LV (data in parentheses from 9/9 - 9/14)
AP:             48 (44)    43 (48)    3.4       LV (data in parentheses from 9/5 - 9/10)
D Corps (D):    49 (47)    45 (44)    3         LV (data in parentheses from 9/22 - 9/24)
CBS:            50 (46)    41 (42)    3         LV (data in parentheses from 9/21 - 9/24)

Added: Today's GWU/Battleground is Obama 49-44.

On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +11 Mon, +9 Tues and +11 Wed (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.) The internals show the 60+ demographic at only +3 McCain (when we started the tracker, it was +15.) Sarah Palin's fav/unfav is now 40/53 (- 13, a new low) and McCain is now -3.

For those concerned about an 11 point Obama lead, please see CBS (+9). The Obama numbers for all the listed polls are 47-51 and McCain is 40-45 (45 is a number McCain has trouble breaking these days, whereas Obama hits 50 in several of the polls.)  The range is Obama +4 (D Corps and Gallup) to +11 (R2K.) What is most important is the steady lead, the internals, and the environment (see yesterday's CBS poll discussion with Bush at an all time low of 22, and ABC/WaPo with Bush's unfav at a record 70.)

Meanwhile IEM is 69.6 - 30.1 Obama and Intrade is 65.1 - 35.0 Obama over McCain. Just 8 - 10 days ago, it was closer to 52-48.

We discussed many of these polls here (Polls Swing To Obama), but the AP poll came out late, with grousing GOP strategists mirroring the remarks we made yesterday.

Several GOP strategists close to McCain's campaign privately fret that his chances for victory are starting to slip away.

These Republicans, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid angering the campaign, point to several factors: Obama's gains nationally and in traditionally GOP states, no McCain gain from the first debate, McCain's struggles with economic issues as the financial crisis has unfolded and deepening public skepticism about his running mate, Sarah Palin.

They said McCain's options for shaking up the race are essentially limited to game-changing performances in the final presidential debates or in Palin's vice presidential debate with Joe Biden Thursday night. Short of that, they said, McCain can do little but hope Obama stumbles or an outside event breaks the GOP nominee's way.

Also, more from a recent ABC/WaPo poll:

But it is the experience question that may prove [Sarah Palin's] highest hurdle, particularly when paired with widespread public concern about McCain's age. About half of all voters said they were uncomfortable with the idea of McCain taking office at age 72, and 85 percent of those voters said Palin does not have the requisite experience to be president.

The 60 percent who now see Palin as insufficiently experienced to step into the presidency is steeply higher than in a Post-ABC poll after her nomination early last month. Democrats and Republicans alike are now more apt to doubt her qualifications, but the biggest shift has come among independents.

In early September, independents offered a divided verdict on Palin's experience; now they take the negative view by about 2 to 1. Nearly two-thirds of both independent men and women in the new poll said Palin has insufficient experience to run the White House.

Tonight's debate is not likely to be a game changer in the polls

There was much criticism of Quayle after the campaign's televised vice-presidential debate, in which he compared his amount of Congressional experience to that of John F. Kennedy when he was running for president. Democratic candidate Lloyd Bentsen said in rebuttal, "Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy," to which a noticeably surprised and unprepared Quayle replied, "That was really uncalled for, Senator," as both applause and boos were heard from the debate audience. Bentsen replied that it was Quayle who had made the initial comparison. Quayle's reaction to Bentsen's comment was played and replayed by the Democrats in their subsequent television ads as an announcer intoned: "Quayle: just a heartbeat away." Comedians exploited the exchange, and an increasing number of editorial cartoons depicted Quayle as an infant or child. Though the controversy generated much press, public opinion polls did not significantly change [bolded mine], and the Republicans maintained a solid lead.

but it will be a great infotainment event, and a key factor in Palin's political future should her ticket lose the election. Bring the popcorn and reflect on the judgment of the top of the ticket.

Still, Palin or no Palin, it's all about McCain v Obama. From CBS poll:

The CBS News poll suggested one sharp contrast in the view of voters of Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain that might have been fed by the different ways the two men responded to the crisis. Forty-five percent said Mr. McCain acted too quickly when he made a decision, compared with 29 percent who said he did not act quickly enough. For Mr. Obama, 23 percent said he acted too quickly, compared with 41 percent who said he did not act quickly enough.

Finally, here's pollster Mark Blumenthal's Thursday National Journal column discussing the youth vote (here, and more here).

The bottom line is that no pollster knows exactly what the "right" answer is when it comes to the age of likely voters. Setting aside the wonky mechanics of the age of voters four years ago, we can only guess at the likely demographics on Nov. 4.

The Obama campaign has invested a small fortune toward boosting turnout among younger voters. Given the increased youth turnout in the primaries (as measured by exit polls), many Democratic partisans are convinced that the turnout among young voters will increase again in November.

R2K figures 18-29 at 18%; other pollsters (via Mark Blumenthal) are listed here. The 2004 exit poll had 17%, so that seems reasonable, and maybe a bit conservative.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:36 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  5-day averages (12+ / 0-)

    Here are the five day averages for the Kos poll:

    Date  M%__  O%__  O-M_
    9/12  46.2  46.6   0.4
    9/13  45.8  47.0   1.2
    9/14  45.6  47.2   1.6
    9/15  45.4  47.2   1.8
    9/16  44.8  47.6   2.8
    9/17  43.8  48.4   4.6
    9/18  43.2  48.8   5.6
    9/19  42.6  49.0   6.4
    9/20  42.4  49.2   6.8
    9/21  42.6  49.2   6.6
    9/22  42.8  49.0   6.2
    9/23  43.2  48.6   5.4
    9/24  43.2  48.6   5.4
    9/25  43.2  48.4   5.2
    9/26  43.0  48.8   5.8
    9/27  42.8  49.2   6.4
    9/28  42.2  50.0   7.8
    9/29  41.8  50.4   8.6
    10/1  41.4  50.8   9.4
    10/2  40.8  51.0  10.2

    These numbers are derived using the daily percentages and sample size for five days going back from the listed day on each line.  The total sample size ends up being around 1800, which should have a margin of error below the 3% for the three day rounded numbers (2.3% if the formula I was given is correct).  The earliest numbers will be slightly stale, but this five day average helps to show more general trend movements by smoothing out noise present in shorter samplings.

    •  This is the time to get out (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, Rich in PA, pico3

      the Palin's wichcraft prayer video. Republicans don't like it.

    •  As a kind of public service announcement......... (11+ / 0-) newbie voters.

      Registration in most states closes on the 6th of October.

      And check to make sure your registration is still valid, if you have been registered before.

      Check even if you voted in the primary---------really, check. Particularly if you are black or live in a black area. The cleaner bees have been hard at work cleaning up all those voter rolls, whole swaths of people have been cleared from voter rolls this election the thousands. You have time to correct it NOW, but not for much longer.

      Call your county registrar, don't rely on the sites online, i have found them unreliable.

      You can get registration forms at post offices, court houses, state tax collectors, many many city, county, state agencies have them available, even some stores have them on their counters.  

    •  Headlines, Deadlines, Redlines: (0+ / 0-)
      1. The Past Angry Man
      2. Putin In The Sky
      3. Calm Calm Calm, Calm Calm I Ran
      4. Guidelines From The Sidelines
      5. Fleece Is At Hand
      6. I Have Been To Wasillastan
      7. My Friends, And The Rest Of You
      8. Teddy Roosevelt Was Bully Too
      9. The Best Woman For The Mob
      10.Where Nowhere Has Gone Before
      (I'm alarmed by the stupid Senate burying the whole government in more disgraceful ineptitude because they haven't the brains or guts to cure the mortgages. Joe Biden should talk family and the 20th of January, look at Gwen, then Palin, then us. That's it.)
    •  FOX would call this neck and neck! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      delphil, Chris Coleridge

      A real horse race even! As Obama's margin increases, the chance of some eventual tightening of the race looms!

  •  The Poll Dances are becoming more erotic everyday (16+ / 0-)

    Dudehisattva... <div style="color: #0000a0;">"Generosity, Ethics, Patience, Effort, Concentration, and Wisdom"&l

    by Dood Abides on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:40:54 AM PDT

  •  This might just be too satisfying (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, uciguy30, renzo capetti

    11 points is fantastic.  Great job Sen. Obama - you have us all donating and volunteering and praying for you every day!

    John McCain "Get Off My Lawns!!"

    by FORUS50 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:41:33 AM PDT

    •  I wouldn't be surprised if (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, uciguy30, renzo capetti

      even the athiests here are praying for you lol!

      John McCain "Get Off My Lawns!!"

      by FORUS50 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:43:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  FSM (6+ / 0-)

        The FSM is smiling down on Obama with his meatball eyes.

      •  I am! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Be not discouraged. There is a future for you. The resistance encountered now predicates hope. Frederick Douglass

        by French Guy on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:49:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Not on your life... Time for action... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        raincrow, bear83, aggie98

        Now's the time for action!

        If you like, offer a prayer of thanks when we're done.  Now that I'm on the topic, could anybody here help out with a little green for Rick Noriega down in Texas?

        He's fighting John Cornyn who:

        Since arriving in the Senate, Cornyn has supported Bush more consistently than has anyone else. He voted with the White House 96 percent of the time during his first four years in the Senate, according to Congressional Quarterly. In 2007, his support of Bush fell all the way to 90 percent. He’s backed the president on every major vote concerning the war in Iraq. In 2004, he used his seat on the Armed Services Committee to try to block an investigation of abuse at Abu Ghraib. In 2005, Cornyn was one of just nine senators, all Republicans, who stood with the White House and voted against Sen. John McCain’s amendment to ban cruel and inhumane treatment of terrorism suspects. The anti-torture amendment passed 90-9.

        He's gaining ground in this new environment, and time is running out.  Let's turn the Texas delegation's purple a deeper shade of blue!

        我們做得到! 歐巴馬加油! wǒmen zuò de dào! ōubāmǎ jiā yóu!

        by LwPhD on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:13:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Praise Jeebus! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Sarah Palin - Lipstick on a Pygmalion

        by kitebro on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:55:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  "REV Wright" It ain't over yet. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Repubs are plastering attack ads across battleground States today linking Obama to Wright and other sordid characters and then linking them with Bin Laden.  The "dumbed down" will believe them.  It ain't over yet folks.

      •  won`t work this time (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mentaldebris, raincrow

        People have heard all the slime already and it hasn`t destroyed Obama. It will just diminish McCain and drive independents to Obama.
        McCain should just lose like a man and maintain some dignity. Unless the phantom whitey tape shows up none of the attacks will work, people are more worried about their finances than Rev Wright.
        The people that care about Wright and Ayers   will be voting for McCain anyway.

        •  Actually - you have a good point (0+ / 0-)

          After reading everything this morning - I think the only thing that might really have legs are the repubs blaming the meltdown on Dems and minority loans.  I'm hearing it talked at work a lot now.  It's starting to catch hold.

          This probably needs to be countered "bigtime".  People need to be told that only 5% of these loans were given to minorities, and the dumbed down need to be told over and over and over.

        •  Chuck Todd (0+ / 0-)

          Noted yesterday the Wright stuff is probably played out (unless they bring something new) and the Ayres thing never stuck beyond the fringes. He also astutely said that if this were a peace and prosperity election, the personality stuff with those guys and Palin might play better, but the country knows how important this is and they want to get it right.

    •  Meat's not meat till it's in the pan. (0+ / 0-)


      (apologies to C. Russell)

      Premature chicken counting invites Murphy.

  •  "white" vote changes (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duha, bear83, uciguy30, beltane

    The other major change is 10 point difference in the "white vote" from the start of the tracker. It's gone from a high difference of +21 (on 9/11) to + 11 today for McCain.

  •  McCain only 1 point ahead with (5+ / 0-)

    men..  I think he need at least 5-10% margin with men to be anywhere near a chance, because Obama will win women with a solid margin. Bush won men with a double-digit margin...

  •  I really wish we weren't the strongest O poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    It might be right, and I understand the methodological differences, and I appreciate the transparency... but the one-liner is still 'DailyKos presidential tracking poll shows strongest D lean'.

    Makes us look bad, I think. Nobody wants to see an interest group (hard to argue we're anything else) presenting data that supports its side more than any other set of data.

    •  no it doesn't (6+ / 0-)

      people get caught up in the wrong things. every day we have a good lead (and remember we are a day ahead of everyone else), someone catches up. we've been matched by Gallup, we've been matched by non-trackers on various days.

      For example, there are 4 polls showing Obama 50-51.

      we happen to pick up that McCain is dropping, but guess what?

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:46:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  meh. no matter what the results are (0+ / 0-)

      we would be considered a Dem lean poll and therefore would still get knocked off a few no matter what the poll says.  So today the other side looks at this and says, "shit, Obama is up by at least 7"  :)

      John McCain "Get Off My Lawns!!"

      by FORUS50 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:46:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What's the alternative? (0+ / 0-)

      If we're the reality-based community, then our transparent method is what it is, regardless of how the wind blows...or, for that matter, how it might look to someone too distracted by our political identity to appreciate the merits of a legitimate (if not superior) polling method.

      "You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound

      by machopicasso on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:50:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Too many other polls weighted to the right. n/t (0+ / 0-)
  •  O +3 in Rasmussen NC poll (15+ / 0-)

    and at 50%!

    D.C. Legal Establishment.

    by MD Blue Crab on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:45:55 AM PDT

  •  Homer tries to vote Obama (6+ / 0-)

    In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act. ~George Orwell

    by ElizabethAM on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:46:10 AM PDT

  •  DemFromCT, you didn't bold enough. (0+ / 0-)

    Though the controversy generated much press, public opinion polls did not significantly change, and the Republicans maintained a solid lead.

    Isn't it possible that the VP debate that year didn't matter because it was overshadowed by whatever allowed the Republicans to maintain their lead?

    I think tonight's debate is different. If Palin can perform like she did in some of her Alaska debates, some of her negative numbers might change. In short, since her tanking numbers have been such a drag on McCain, I suspect there's more at stake tonight. I'm not sure Quayle was ever that kind of drag on Bush (though you may have the numbers to prove me wrong).

    "You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound

    by machopicasso on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:47:49 AM PDT

    •  Bush at 22, wrong track at 80%, economy sucks (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLKRR, bear83, spookthesunset

      Republicans in power for 8 years, Iraq war a mistake... and your point is...?

      Palin is an anchor, but it's the captain that is sinking the ship.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:52:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My point was just that Palin seems more capable (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        of hurting McCain than Quayle was of hurting Bush, Sr., and, because of that difference, that tonight's debate could be more significant than you implied in your post.  

        I assume "the captain" whom you referred to is Bush. Still, the disparity between Palin's and McCain's unfavorables is astounding:

        Sarah Palin's fav/unfav is now 40/53 (- 13, a new low) and McCain is now -3.

        You just don't pick a running-mate who can hurt you that badly. The day I saw Palin had been picked, I thought, "McCain's just given away the election." But I didn't imagine it'd materialize this dramatically. And tonight's debate is an opportunity to see whether the Palin train wreck continues.  

        "You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound

        by machopicasso on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:05:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  GWU Battleground is joining reality (7+ / 0-)

    Today's GWU/Battleground tracking poll:

    Obama 49
    McCain 44  

    It was 48-46 yesterday.

  •  Obama up by five today in GW/Battlground Tracking (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Glic, duha, beltane

    Obama 49
    McCain 44

    Previously O+2.

    That poll was the last of the daily trackers to show McCain in the lead.

    Sarah Palin: Don't Ask, Don't Know

    by smunker on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:49:33 AM PDT

  •  Looks too good to be true. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    No, I actually mean it. Are we overweighting party ID? Is Obama actually up 11 points over McSame?

    Pass the Bailout. Our future is at stake.

    by OReillysNightmare on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:51:20 AM PDT

    •  Doubtful about it, too. Gotta average all the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      tracking polls. But the good news is that when you do that, it's still a 6-7 pt Obama lead. :-)

    •  bitch bitch bitch ;-) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Shelbyville Manhattan

      no we are not. People didn't complain on 9/13 when it was 47-47.

      see the table on party weighting for 9/25:

      Pollster        D     R     I     (Dem-Rep)
      Research 2000:  35    26    30    +9
      Diageo/Hotline: 41    36    19    +5  
      Rasmussen:      39    33.5  27.5  +5.5
      Gallup:         35    26    33    +9
      ABC:            38    28    29    +10
      NBC/WSJ:        43    36    16    +7 (text says +8, but this is what adds up)
      Fox:            41    34    21    +7

      Check 9/25 and see who we match and who we didn't.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:58:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Re: the debate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pletzs, beltane, spookthesunset

    If I recall correctly, Quayle wasn't a catastrophic failure in interviews prior to the debate -- kind of dopey, yes, but not close on the whackjob meter as Palin.  The Bentson jab was good, but also evoked some sympathy for Quayle.

    I don't remember in my lifetime any politician with such a string of incoherent interviews coupled with complete isolation from a non-controlled press environment.

    Many times McCain pulled the same shit during the debate -- non-answers as he segued into his historical anecdotes -- he got a pass because there was an assumption he knew something.  There is no such assumption with Palin.

    Even though she will get some positive grades just for showing up and putting one coherent sentence together, what people are looking for is -- can she possibly get any worse.

  •  Fav/Unfav chart? (0+ / 0-)

    What's up with the Fav/Unfav chart on the trendlines page?  It only goes up to 9/30.  Also, the current internals isn't linked at the top.

  •  SV Wisconsin: O- 49 M - 40 On Wisconsin! (7+ / 0-)

    Strategic Vision - Wisconsin
    Obama/Biden 49%
    McCain/Palin 40%
    Other 2%
    Undecided 9%

    Barack Obama
    Favorable 53%
    Unfavorable 38%
    Undecided 9%

    Joseph Biden
    Favorable 44%
    Unfavorable 37%
    Undecided 19%

    John McCain
    Favorable 48%
    Unfavorable 41%
    Undecided 11%

    Sarah Palin
    Favorable 49%
    Unfavorable 34%
    Undecided 17%

    Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
    Approve 15%
    Disapprove 74%
    Undecided 11%

    Once in awhile you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right...

    by Glic on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:54:42 AM PDT

  •  DemFromCT, I think if Palin bombs tonight, it (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Toes, duha

    will have an impact on the race, if she does ok or does well, it won't be a game changer, but if she bombs, then, watch out!

  •  I want the 30s!!!! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mentaldebris, Drew J Jones, leney

    Perfect time of the year to see a candidate (McCain/Palin) match the morning temperature (in Alaska!!)

  •  Men Are Nearly Evenly Split Now (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Shelbyville Manhattan

    McCain has lost his once-substantial lead among men, with the split now 46-45.
    And old folks favor their own by only a three-point margin, 45-42.
    I guess that shows when the wheels come off of your campaign, everybody notices.
    Maybe we can close the gap among white people by election day. It's the last group that is breaking significantly McCain's way.

  •  I agree, a good debate for Sarah, might (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    stop the hemorrhaging, but it won't be a game changer.  People don't want vague answers from Sarah.  They know she plays the game well, people want real leadership right now, not petty one liners.  They want a leader they can trust.  The McCain/Palin campaign has been a series of lies, smears, tricks and attacks, and little real policy.  People are very skeptical of the McCain/Palin ticket and they aren't willing to trust them, unless they earn it back.  That would mean running a clean campaign, and frankly, they are running out of time for that.

  •  Although I bow to your superior experience Dem, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I still feel that tonight's debate will indeed determine the game narrative going forward. McCain is no Bush senior, and Bush was not coming off a disastrous 8 year republican administration.
    Bush senior, as I recall, had the confidence of the American people as a Reaganite incumbent and former CIA chief and VP, McCain does not.

    Palin speaks to McCain's judgement, a judgement already in doubt in the mins of many republicans.

    So, will tonight's debate be a game changer?

    IMHO, Yes.

    John McCain "Beware the terrible simplifiers" Jacob Burckhardt, Historian

    by notquitedelilah on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:08:56 AM PDT

  •  Couple of thoughts (0+ / 0-)

    *** The debate is happening about seven miles from my house in St. Louis. We all know that what happens on the stage at Wash U. is meaningless, it's the interpretation by the pundits afterwards that counts. Our goal should be to win that battle instead of clobbering Palin on the stage. Unfortunately, the majority of viewers won't know what to think until the pundits tell them.

    *** The polls are encouraging but I see signs of complacency and celebration sneaking into the discussion. We need to keep working like we were down by five points and ignore the polls, friends and neighbors. Plenty of time to celebrate in early November. For now, talk up the candidates, knock on doors, make phone calls, work on GOTV projects, register voters, make sure that your own family is lined up for Obama/Biden, etc. This is not the time to let up; it's the time to pour it on.

    As I sail against the tide, for what I believe is right.

    by Toes on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:17:22 AM PDT

    •  All pudits thought (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, bwintx, leney

      McCain had narrowly won the Friday debate. That was the general consensus for about 75 minutes before polls/focus groups feedbacks started trickling in favor of Obama.

      •  spilt decision, actually (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        close decision, with some thinking Obama won and some McCain won. All thought it was narrow either way, and many called it a tie. Partisans called it for their guy.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:27:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe different reactions depending on source (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DemFromCT, Delilah

        I watched on CNN, and each pundit had his/her on-screen "box" with which they "scored" the debate in real time. Four said Obama won, one (John King) had it tied, and one (Bill Bennett) had a slight win for McCain. During the post-debate chatter, no one said McCain had accomplished much, but many of the commentators said Obama had "reassured" Americans that it was OK to vote for a "new kind of candidate" (i.e., a black guy), and that he'd therefore accomplished exactly what he'd needed to and won the debate.

        When Jesus said, "Love your enemies," he probably didn't mean kill them.

        by porktacos on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:49:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  we chronicled it pretty well (0+ / 0-)

          in the abbreviated pundit the next few days after the debate.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:53:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  yeah (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          CNN actually had a fair assessment by the pundits.. on MSNBC, they were all slam dunking McCain's big win until the polling data came in and shut down the BS.

          No way. No how. No McCain. -- Hillary Clinton, Aug. 26, 2008

          by Delilah on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 08:09:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I don't see that (0+ / 0-)

      I do see a post (appropriately, like yours) exhorting us to guard against complacency, but the news is the news. If it's good news, so be it.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:29:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lagging Morale (0+ / 0-)

        On the Republican side is now one of the greatest advantages the Dems have. Reagan not only energized Republicans, but he so demoralized Dems that many just gave up. We're at the point now where the good news for the Dems is going to start really taking the wind out of a lot of Repub sails (especially coupled with the Wall Street situation). This is the stuff that landslides are made.

    •  As Jon Stewart has so wisely said: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Newspundits are the Dopplerless weathermen of our time.

      If the pundits truly had that much power we would be voting for the inevitable Clinton instead of Obama.  They have been more wrong than right this election year for the simple reason that they are no longer the only game in town.  People are exposed to many more news sources and as a result have a tendency to make up their own minds instead of being told what to think.  

      Look at the last debate - Pundits split or think it's a tie, more voters say Obama kicked ass. Forget about the influence these blowhards have anymore.  They blew it in 2006 and they have been blowing it so far this year.  Very few are trusting them anymore in the decision making process and that's a good thing.

      Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right? - Robert Orben

      by mentaldebris on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 09:10:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Can someone help? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    A diary from yesterday has rung a bell with half a dozen folks who would never have admitted they were for Obama:  "Roosevelt with a Suntan!" Now, most were old enough to remember Roosevelt. But the real point is that the phrase admits and minimizes the race issue, emphasizing the real crisis we are in.

    Bumper sticker, someone? Put my order in for half a dozen.

    •  I don't think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I don't think we want to go the suntan route, even if it is to our "benefit." I remember it was not long ago when Grover Norquist said Obama was Kerry with a suntan. We don't want to validate potentially racist epithets no matter how benign they seem.

      "Scandals don't stay underground like cassava: they always come out" -- Ewe Proverb

      by zizi on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:29:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Compliance Fund (0+ / 0-)

    I see from clicking over on Rasmussen that Mavericky McCain is still skirting his own campaign finance reform by actively soliciting donations to their "Compliance Fund."  That is to say, he is essentially still raising money even though he's not supposed to be, under what is now a gaping loophole in the law.

    -- Stu

  •  Did anyone check out the youth representation (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bwintx, kaspian, Colonial82

    in the link provided?  All pollsters except dKos/R2K are representing 18-29s at under the 17% mark set in 2004!

    That means the R2K numbers could even be a little low.

    •  bingo (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      the lead here is from the represented demos being more Obama than other polls.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:26:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That struck me also (0+ / 0-)

      How could anybody weight their poll to assume a LOWER youth vote than four years ago? That doesn't make any kind of sense at all.

      •  well, notoriously erratic, this demo (0+ / 0-)

        as far as showing up. But they showed in 2004.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:52:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We're Showing Up This Year Even More (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          We're a lot more excited about Obama than we were about Kerry, and being an Obama supporter on college campuses, bars, parties, football games, etc. is actually considered cool (Kerry was many things, but never particularly cool).  

          Wearing Obama gear is a pretty surefire way to get yourself some positive attention on campus these days.  

          You can have your "Under God" back when I get my "Liberty and Justice For All" back.

          by karateexplosions on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 07:00:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  The backlash against Obama for voting... (0+ / 0-)

    ...against the bailout will not turn up for a day or two yet.

    I expect Paul, Nader, and McKinney to be leading, in that order, come Saurday, followed by McCain, and then Obama.

    Either that, or people really aren't as principled as they say.

    "The country we carry in our hearts is waiting." Bruce Springsteen

    by Davis X Machina on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:24:35 AM PDT

    •  read... (0+ / 0-)

      ...against his email, and for the bailout....

      (Preview is your friend, and hand-rolled HTML tags aren't...)

      "The country we carry in our hearts is waiting." Bruce Springsteen

      by Davis X Machina on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:26:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  uh... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slinkerwink, MadEye, bwintx, duha

      I expect Paul, Nader, and McKinney to be leading, in that order, come Saurday, followed by McCain, and then Obama.

      Yeah. Sure.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:34:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  hahaha (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bwintx, duha

      I can't tell if you're joking or not. Nonetheless, this is a joke.

      If there are going to be defections to the third-party fringe over this issue, it will be from the ranks of McCain supporters -- specifically the "libertarian" wing of the GOP and far-right types who have never really warmed to him, even after Palin.

    •  you aren't serious right? This is snark (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      1. Ron Paul isn't running anymore
      1. Bob Barr and Ron Paul hate each other right now.
      1. Nader might get a boost to 4%.  Leading Obama and McCain?  That's absurd.
      1. McCain and Obama both voted for the bailout bill.  It will be a wash, the backlash.  The protests against the bailout are actually louder from the right, so it's more likely conservatives treat this as the last straw for McCain than liberals treat this as the last straw for Obama.
      1. No one knows who McKinney is on a national level.  She may bounce to 2% from this.  Cynthia McKinney ahead of McCain and Obama would never, ever happen.

      Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

      by duha on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:37:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's no HTML 4.0 or XTML-compliant (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        porktacos, bwintx, Rich in PA

        ...code for 'snark' yet.

        That's the problem.

        That and a complete lack of consistency from many of the people here decrying the bailout.

        If it's that bad, why aren't you voting to punish a Senator who voted to pass it?

        "The country we carry in our hearts is waiting." Bruce Springsteen

        by Davis X Machina on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:41:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  because only 2 people have a chance to (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Rich in PA

          be president, and there's no difference between them on this issue.

          Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

          by duha on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:55:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Your Presidential ballot... (0+ / 0-)

            ..depending on the state, will have from two to six other choices.

            Voting for one of them is only principled thing to do.

            After all, Obama just voted for the worst bill ever. For the last step in the Fascist takeover. For selling our children and grandchildren in perpetuity down the river.

            You have to punish someone for a vote like that, don't you?

            Or are we no better that the GOP? We know they'll sacrifice any and every principle to electoral expediency.

            Bailout opponents have to either put their ballots where your mouths are -- or admit that there was a case for a pro-bailout vote.

            "The country we carry in our hearts is waiting." Bruce Springsteen

            by Davis X Machina on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:02:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  um, no. There's nothing about using one vote (0+ / 0-)

              as a litmus test that makes any sense.  You can be outraged by a vote, that doesn't mean you are required not to support anyone who voted a certain way.

              Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

              by duha on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:45:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Awww...the last Kucinich voter speaketh n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty ::Thomas Jefferson::

      by Jeremy10036 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:37:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Look when Palin gaffes and waffles on camera (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eXtina, Colonial82

    Just look uncomfortable and slightly dismayed. Glance at the camera only ever so subtly.  Maybe ask for some clarification or specifics, but only once.  Don't badger her.  

    Take a cue from the way Katie Couric did it -- she was brilliant. Utterly brilliant.  

    No further calling attention to it by the candidate will be necessary, because WE'LL all notice, and she just won't be able to get away from her own lack of substance.

    It will need to be a slow burn.  

    •  She has a history as a very good debater (0+ / 0-)

      Don't count this chickie out. She's so far been a survivor. Unless all the exposure, deservedly bad press, and calls for withdrawal have shaken her up too badly, I think tonight's fairly scripted and orderly debate could create a P/McC bounce. Upthread (or maybe on another of this morning's threads?) I predicted she will contradict McC on the bailout as a way to blow fresh kisses at the conservative base that (along with leftie me) despises the current bailout plan, in an effort to keep them fired up despite McC's tanking numbers.

  •  Only 18 percent youth vote? (0+ / 0-)

    I'm struck by this from the end of the post:

    "R2K figures 18-29 at 18%.... The 2004 exit poll had 17%, so that seems reasonable, and maybe a bit conservative."

    I'd say this is way conservative -- which is good, because if youth turnout really does increase dramatically over 2004, that's GREAT news for Obama, and his actual lead may be wider than the current numbers suggest.

    Now I feel a bit more reassured about the "non-wishful-thinking" character of the DKos/R2K poll.

    •  it's done by a very reliable professional (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      pollster. i don't get why the other polls are so low.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:35:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I never really doubted this (0+ / 0-)

        but it's a bit unsettling that this poll seems to show a more pronounced tilt toward Obama than the others -- sometimes even the extent of looking like an outlier.

        I don't think it's an outlier, and I'm quite willing to believe that the other polls are ... I don't know ... maybe operating on a set of outdated assumptions about the electorate and voting patterns and all that stuff.

        In that sense (and others), the CBS poll is certainly reassuring.

        •  as noted today (0+ / 0-)

          we have Obama 51 and there are three other polls that have Obama 50-51.

          CBS had 9 yesterday while we had 11.

          We picked up the palin fav/unfav slide as early as anyone.

          if there's a discrepancy, it's not in Obama's numbers, it's McCain's. Perhaps our 18-29's just don't like him (62-30 Obama, matched by NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll.)

          But go here and click any day to compare our poll to others.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:50:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  We haven't even reached the real October surprise (0+ / 0-)

    which is the Troopergate findings.

    Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty ::Thomas Jefferson::

    by Jeremy10036 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:36:32 AM PDT

  •  Anvil time (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow, duha, Chris Coleridge

    It looks like we're off to another day of avalanches of polls good for Obama and brutal for Johnny Mac:

    R2K O+11 (gain of 1 for Obama since yesterday)
    Ras North Carolina: O+3 (unchanged since last week)
    GW/BG: O+5 (gain of 3 for Obama since yesterday)
    SV Wisconsin: O+9

    And all this before 9:00 AM. Time to throw 'em that anvil.

    When Jesus said, "Love your enemies," he probably didn't mean kill them.

    by porktacos on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:45:41 AM PDT

  •  I'm watching McCain on CNN... (0+ / 0-)'s really a sad sight; to watch as this man just lies and bullshits his way through the interview.

    A "normal Joe Sixpack" is a drunkard, and I don't want him--or her--driving the course of the nation.

    by vcthree on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:47:50 AM PDT

  •  Wow, Obama is just inching up, finally (0+ / 0-)

    broke 50, but McCain keeps dropping like a stone!

    Love It!

  •  I am getting better (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    This morning instead of hanging around Daily Kos trying to get my "fix" with poll numbers, I actually worked.

    I also had lunch and a half pint, so I am now eating food instead of feeding myself poll numbers. Polls give you a good high but they do not have the calories.

    This afternoon, I am sending in my federal absentee ballot for Obama.


    I am an ex pat lifelong Republican voting for Obama, dual nat member of New Labour, that works in The City.

    by Libertarian Friend on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:53:33 AM PDT

  •  GW Battleground (0+ / 0-)

    which has been in the tank for McCain, has Obama ahead by seven percent now.

  •  fantastic summary - thank you DemFromCT n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Not Ideas about the Thing but the Thing Itself - Wallace Stevens

    by catchlightning on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:04:07 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen tracking: Obama 51% McCain 44% (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    McCain lost a point.

    No link yet, it's info from a premium member.

    Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty ::Thomas Jefferson::

    by Jeremy10036 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:08:14 AM PDT

  •  I remember the Bentson/Quale debate (0+ / 0-)

    And I remember that 'you're no Jack Kennedy' line (it was indeed a wonderful moment). It was surprising that it didn't budget the Bush Sr. numbers in the slightest.

    But I think it'll be different this time. Much of the Palin story is about McCain. This is his 'hail mary pass' and his judgment on display. Her readiness and his age will be in people's minds.

    None of this was part of the Bentson/Quayle debate. Quayle was seen as an idiot for sure, but - and in retrospect I can't fully explain why - it seemed isolated from Bush's 'judgment'. For one thing, Quayle very rarely campaigned with Bush - Quayle was kept at a distance, while Palin and McCain have been joined at the hip.

    Whatever the reasons, Bush wasn't tied to Quayle's fate the way McCain seems to be tied to Palin's.

    •  I also think that the Bentsen zinger, while (0+ / 0-)

      adored by the media and Dem partisans, it came across as incredibly patronizing, mean, petty and condescending, which is how I'm sure the swing voters saw it.

      In hindsight it completely backfired.

      Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty ::Thomas Jefferson::

      by Jeremy10036 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:27:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, it made no difference (0+ / 0-)

        It didn't backfire at all, it did brand Quayle as inept and inexperienced, but it wasn't enough to change the dynamic of the campaign.

        •  It Was a Case of Narrative Replacement (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          The tank "incident" and the Willy Horton ad overwhelmed it. There may have been an effect but it was swamped by other things. There may have been a positive or negative effect from the first debate but the market meltdown narrative has replaced it. (It seems so long ago hasn't it?)  Even if Sarah Palin acquits herself well tonight -- which I think she will given the format -- it won't make any difference.

          Experience is a proxy for stability and sound judgment. When I have done hiring I often toss the resume and look for so-called soft skills. Oftentimes you don't have an exact match for the experience part. Yet, if the job candidate has the sound judgment you can overcome ignorance with education and surrounding yourself with good counselors. The reason you want experience is so that you have enough of a track record to make a judgment on the candidate's character and ability, but the experience per se is not enough, cf. Dole in '96.

          Long story, short. Even if Palin goes from a negative to a neutral (which I believe is her best case scenario) it's not enough. A fatal defect at the top of ticket dooms you as shown in '88. What Quayle also taught us is that she is political toast. Look for Romney and Huckabee in 2012. The social conservatives will not be tolerant of another bubblehead next time. They will take Martin Luther's quote to heart: "Better to be ruled by wise Turk than a foolish Christian."

  •  Get McCain down into the 30s when it's all over. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I'd like him to be way, way below McGovern, who is a decent and wonderful guy and doesn't deserve to be the "lowest percentage in modern times" standard-bearer.

    -5.38/-3.74 I've suffered for my country. Now it's your turn! --John McCain with apologies to Monty Python's "Protest Song"

    by Rich in PA on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:25:22 AM PDT

  •  Debate Notes.... bring popcorn and booze! (0+ / 0-)

    Well the 40 percent for McCain is a welcome surprise. I didn't expect him to drop past 42.

    Tonight, will be a popcorn and beer night in most households as we wait to see what tactic the McCain campaign has taken with Ms. Palin.

    Have they tried to make her into Wilma Flintstone? A simple backwoods housewife with a strong decisive mind, but no experience whatsoever.

    Or will they train her to be an innocent woman to Biden's aggressive, sexist, insider? It's hard to say, but the main concept that Biden has to put forward quickly in the debate is what are the "required" qualities and experience for any VP candidate. Once that bar is set in everyone's mind, Palin will fall back defeated.

    To get to that point, the first thing that should be brought up is a description of the Job of Vice President. What do these bozos do anyways?

    Unlike the First Lady who picks out the China patterns, the Vice President is the side-kick of the President. They need to be able to step in and take over at a moments notice. And usually during a crisis or medical condition which both are up for grabs at the moment. We have two wars and a few possible given the wrong diplomatic push. We have a financial 9/11 so you best know how to balance more than your checkbook. And we have a housing crisis that threatens every household in America. No Realtor experience required, just Banking and Loan experience needed.

    All of these areas the next Vice President will likely be called upon to make a decision. Even if the President doesn't go under the knife, have a heartattack, stroke, nervous breakdown, or die of cancer there will be times when the President may need the Vice President to back him up politically in Congress as the President of the Senate.

    Oh, I can see that as a hilarity coming to Congress. Sarah Palin sitting up high in the Senate doing her nails and reading Cosmo as she is bored out of her mind. This is not what we need.

    Make the horror end in November!

    "Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job." - Hitchhiker's Guide

    by Wynter on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:27:08 AM PDT

  •  Palin's Political Future (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The last losing VP candidate to later win the presidency was FDR.

    Most VP candidates who lose have very little national political future (though there's some exception for those who are in the Senate and continue their careers there). And Ed Muskie did became Secretary of State.

    At any rate, there's little reason to think that Palin will have much of a political future outside of Alaska if she loses, however tonight's debate goes.

    This nicely summarizes what's wrong with American political life today. (Source)

    by GreenSooner on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:34:37 AM PDT

  •  Ras shows Biggest lead yet in daily Tracking (0+ / 0-)

    Who was Bush_Horror2004, anyway?

    by Dartagnan on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:35:50 AM PDT

  •  Recession (0+ / 0-)

    It's obvious were now in for some really hard times ahead and the public is very wise in picking a team they know will be more sympathetic to their needs then the GOP. It's a Demo. yr. A declining economy a disasterous war and our nat'l brand at historic lows Int'll all add up to CHANGE. Mcsame/palin is just exactly what we don't need and the polls are reflecting that.

    "It's better to die on your feet then live on your knees" E. Zapata

    by Blutodog on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 07:00:25 AM PDT

  •  The Vice-Presidential Debate Could Matter Now (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I understand why vice debates weren't that important in the past, but I think that McSame's health makes her more front-and-center as a vice candidate than is usual.

  •  Fix the labels on the trendline graph! (0+ / 0-)

    The graph is incorrectly labeled as going from 10/1 to 9/30 instead of 9/11 to 10/2.

  •  Game changer (0+ / 0-)

    Tonight's debate is not likely to be a game changer in the polls

    Basing this conclusion on the Quayle experience is very misleading. Analogies are fine but never perfect and this is an unprecedented situation - 72-year old, cancerous McCain and the previously complete unknown and obviously inexperienced Palin. Quayle may have been a doofus, but he was no Palin.

    No, if Palin really blows it tonight, and, depending on the questions she is asked by Ifill, she very well could, it could very well be a game changer. A LOT more people will be watching then have watched the various Couric interviews.

    Eli Stephens
    Left I on the News

    by elishastephens on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 07:30:54 AM PDT

    •  IF Palin blows it... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      all bets are off, of course. but that's a very big IF.

      Also, McCain is tanking, already. Do you think the Republican base will tank?

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 07:38:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Question for Palin (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elishastephens, raincrow

    I would like the first question to Palin to be the following:

    John McCain, along with Senators Obama and Biden, voted for the Wall Street bailout/rescue plan.  Can you tell us, specifically, how this plan will help American families?

    Very fair and timely question - not a gotcha.  Palin will fail miserably with the soundbites they have undoubtedly put in her head.  Biden will knock it out of the park.

  •  Kos - use 1992 and 2004 as baseline for turnout (0+ / 0-)

    This election is more similar to 1992 for young voters. According to Pew, the demographic was 20.7% of voters that year.

    In '92 young voters were inspired by Clinton like they are with Obama now.

    2004 had great turnout, but it was more anti-war, anti-Bush and less pro-Kerry. Now it's anti-war, anti-Bush and pro-Obama. Especially among AA voters.

    I think even the Dkos poll is too conservative with the 18-29 numbers, especially considering the enormous investment in the Obama ground game.

  •  New Rasmussen #s 51 Obama 44 McCain (0+ / 0-)

    New Hotline #s 47 Obama 42 McCain

    Just look at the composite national chart its a thing of beauty (for Obama, a nightmare for McCain):


  •  I presage a Palin bounce (0+ / 0-)

    I almost don't think it matters what Biden says, unless he makes a final gambit that breaks her composure. Short of that, I do not expect her to come completely undone tonight. This is hers to lose. She will have glib, pre-packaged answers, and something tells me that -- even though McCain has voted YES on this insane bailout stampede that screws distressed American homeowners and rewards every level of the financial sector overlords -- Palin will say something negative about the bailout just to catch the ear and heart of conservatives who despise the bailout as much as I do and as much as I wish Obama did. Everyone will go bonkers pointing out that McCain supports the bailout, but Palin supporters will mentally pave that under and remain fired up to vote for Palin (oh yeah, and McCain) anyway.

    •  I think she also said the bailout was necessary (0+ / 0-)
      •  Ouch, bad move on her part. (0+ / 0-)

        But it covers Obama's and Biden's asses for a piss-poor cave-in decision to their finance overlords. I still desperately want O/B to win because we need Dems to pick the next 1-3 Supremes. That's all I want (and expect) from them because they are just more plain old Democratic, corporate-whore politicians. We'll still need "better Democrats" unless Obama transforms into a genuine progressive.

  •  Come on (0+ / 0-)

    39! Mama needs a competent guy in the White House (instead of a new pair of shoes).

    Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right? - Robert Orben

    by mentaldebris on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 08:52:15 AM PDT

  •  Just hope Joe is ready for anything (0+ / 0-)

    You don't know if the retard from the Couric interview shows up, or the snarky, belittler at the RNC. I get a feeling that she rises to the occasion when she has an opponent (as opposed to a journalist) to wrestle with. She seemed to be showing some deference to Couric's position as an interviewer. I guess Ifill will play that role, but the McCain camp successfully id'd that and have put her on the spot. She'll probably go easy on Scary Sarah. That leaves her to try and eviscerate Biden on things like his insider status, his experience, and his voting record. I hope he's ready for it.

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