I trust Princeton Election Consortium more than any polling outfit out there. Sam Wang is entirely right that FiveThirtyEight.com is not as great as the hype it gets. Nate Silver is about as good as trusting Jim Cramer to pick your investments.
A real way to guage who will win this thing is to trust a tried and true algorithm for measuring all types of natural phenomena, from physics to medicine. Take the median of your measurements to prevent outliers, run a probability plot extracted from all 2.3 quadrillion possible election cases, and display the 95% confidence interval. The results make you feel all warm inside when you get some great data:
Obama 2008 (so far)
Kerry 2004
Almost 340 EV. But:
1.) This can't last. I warned people Palin's not that bad at debating and for some reason was accused of being a concern troll. Thanks witch hunters, at least some Democrats know preparing for the worst case scenario is the way to win elections. Now Huffington Post is pointing out the obvious.
2.) This bailout is going to be hung around someone's neck, and right now it seems like Republicans are already running this thing against us. Even though Krugman, Buffet, and Obama all seem to agree this thing is necessary, politically, it's bound to get someone mad.
3.) This election has been a tea party. Just wait till the rest of the Republicans start freaking out - this thing is going to get much uglier.
Anyway, I'd just like to say I was pro-Obama since before the primaries, but I never thought he'd get anywhere what with it seemingly being Clinton's year. I'd just like to point out there's this strange pattern with black people where even though we're sort of pushed to the bottom of the society heap, stuffed in ghettos and psychologically attacked from all sides, we tend to somehow spit out these fireworks every once in a while who represent all of the pent up potential of 400 years of slavery and discrimination. Jackie Robinson, Thurgood Marshall, Tiger Woods, the Williams sisters, Martin Luther KING, and even David Patterson (blind!). In order to get to these positions you can't just happen to work as hard as your white peers - you have to be TWICE as good, with little to no room for error.
Congratulations man. Even if you somehow lose by 300 EV in the end, right now, you are some kind of hero.