As IN's self-described "mad canvasser" ... this is my assessment, mind you - from the ground.
Everyone keeps saying "and even (maybe) IN" ... IDK if I agree w/ that.
We've done an amazing job in this state w/ voter reg., and canvassing.
Nevertheless ... among the red toss-up states (NC, MO, and IN), I fear we are in a tough spot. We have a huge proportion of single-issue pro-life voters. We have gobs of "knee-jerk" Republicans, and (believe me), we've chipped away, at a lot of them. But there are many such voters between 40-65 (who are too busy to pay attn.), plus those over 65 (who cannot be moved by anything), whom we'll lose. Our committed non-voters may outnumber those from any state.
Plus there are the undecideds ... they'll be "Bradley effected." (I don't believe the analysis on fivethirtyeight.com - the undecideds who went for us in the primary were simply anti-HRC, according to my canvasser's intuition.)
Speaking of being "effected" - the more ignorant (and more "street smart") Palin appears, the more votes she's gonna get in this state, among HS-educated female voters in rural areas and/or those who think like that.
We also have a tradition in this (as in many states) of "not discussing politics with strangers." Many of our voters won't even take policy lit. They just think they should "make up their own minds." (In tandem with Fox News, Rush, and the last, worst, most negative lies and rumors they hear from their friends.)
I've canvassed virtually non-stop in Lafayette since early June ... I have little more to give. I have three more precincts to knock until election day, and I'll be well over 12K since early June (or 15K since prior to the 5/6 primary.)
The truth is, that I'm gonna drag my sorry @ss over the finish line, when we go to GOTV. I'm exhausted in every sense of the word.
The best I can say at this point, is that I'll be happy if we do better than '96 (Clinton lost by 5).
If we win this state, it will be a miracle. And if there's a higher power out there that's expecting more from me, all I can say is that I'm not worthy.
But I'm still grateful that I don't live in Idaho, Wyoming, or Kentucky. (Heaven help those Obama canvassers, out there.)
Please Indy, save us!
Please Gary, pull it out in the end!!
MoveOn ... where are you??