I just sent in my mail-in ballot today. It felt good to vote for Obama (Kleeb also) Maybe even better than it did to vote against bush and for Kerry in 2004. I don't have a lot of work to do today because I have been preparing for the Seminar I have to give tomorrow all week and did not set up too many experiments. So with nothing else to do I thought I'd share the fact that I voted today and make some predictions for the final tally of the vote.
I have not seen any polling broken down by district or county out of NE so I don't know what Obama's chances are for picking up 1 0r 2 of NE 5 EVs. I do know that Obama is pretty popular in Omaha and I would guess Lincoln. Also there were a lot of new, independent, and some republican voters registering as Democrats to vote for Obama in the NE caucus. So Obama might have a small chance to pick up and EV or two out of NE.
Here are some predictions for the final tally. I think Obama is teetering on landslide territory with this outcome becoming more and more likely as it gets closer to Nov 4th. McCain is in a really tough spot, there are very few chances for him to get enough EVs to win the election. Recent polling has shown Obama pulling away in MI and PA; almost putting these two states in non battle ground territory. Those were probably McCain's best chance of picking off a Kerry state (other than NH's 4 EVs). The polling showing Obama ahead in VA, CO, and close if not tied in IN and NC is even worst news for McCain. He is running out of states to play offense (CO, FL, OH, FL and maybe NH) and there are a lot of traditionally red states where he is going to have to play a lot of defense (VA, IN, NC, MO). Things are looking pretty bleak for McCain (Nate's model at 538 .com gives McCain less than 15% chance of victory) but thats great news for everyone else in the country.
So here what I think is the best case Scenario for obama (well I can not embed my EV map. So I will explain it (thought the picture was a lot prettier with all the blue). Obama with all Kerry states, plus, IA, VA, NC, IN, OH, FL, CO, NM, NV, and MO. Obama could also possibly pick up WV too (though that may be a long shot). This would give Obama 375 EVs. I think of those MO, NV, OH, IN and NC will be the hardest pick ups for Obama. So if I had to place I would probably put MO and NV red and maybe NC red which would give Obama 344 EVs and I'd guess a 52% to 47% victory in the popular vote.