I had an e-mail today from a friend who has been predicting Obama to win with over 350 EVs. I had had my doubts even about 270, having wondered if maybe WI, PA, and MI were in play as recently as two weeks ago.
Now I am beginning to wonder if he is underestimating things, and recalling a recent diary by "TeacherKen" called "Going out on a Limb". See link below. At the time of that diary, I was in Kansas hiding out from Hurricane Ike and had recently volunteered to work for Obama in MO, but looking at the polls then, I started thinking that NM or CO would be more likely targets, as MO was probably hopeless and that NM, CO, IA, and all the Kerry states were the way to go.
Now, CNN and the media have reported not only that McCain is pulling out of MI, but that the GOP "battleground" states are not those "purple" states that we think of (states that went for Gore in 2000, Bush in 2004 like IA,NM, or vice versa as in NH or states that were close in both of those elections like WI). Now, the new GOP "battleground" states are OH, FL, VA, MO, IN, and NC.
"Holy you-know-what!"
Missouri, the "show-me state" is well-known as having been on the winning side in every modern election except 1956 (when it went, somewhat surprisingly, for Stevenson; though MO is traditionally a Democratic state, that was still surprising until you recall that Stevenson hailed from next-door IL).
You have no doubt heard some states, like PA and OH, described as "Alabama" when you get outside the major urban areas. Senator McCaskil desribes MO as a microcosm of the nation as a whole, with St. Louis comparable to the Northeast, Kansas City comparable to the West Coast, Columbia (site of the University of Missouri and comparable to many "college towns") kind of like the upper Midwest around Chicago, and the rest of the state resembling rural America and the Deep South.
So what is going on? For one thing, three states that went for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 look out of reach for the Democrats once again, TN, LA and AR. All three of those states have stronger Democratic traditions than five of the six new GOP "battleground" states of FL, OH, VA, IN, and NC.
A couple of weeks ago, we enjoyed a diary from TeacherKen predicting a landslide. And that was before the Wall Street catastrophe. Read that here: http://www.dailykos.com/...
http://www.dailykos.com/...
I had my doubts, and people I know who are also political junkies were talking about how it was going to be all about OH again. So now what is it about? Well, maybe it's about a few states that have not gone to the Democratic candidate in decades.
IN is perhaps second only to KS when it comes to traditionally Republican states, though it has had some Democratic senators. And IN seems to be in play. Same with NC. Both IN and NC have had somewhat liberal Democratic U.S. Senators in the recent past. KS has never had a liberal Democratic U.S. Senator or any Democratic U.S. Senator in the recent past, though KS has had some moderate Republicans like Nancy Kassebaum. The two current KS Republican senators, Roberts and Brownback, are pretty far right, but not exactly Jesse Helms. Nobody is predicting that Obama will win KS or that KS Senator Roberts will be defeated.
But look at what is going on in IN and in NC and what has gone on in VA. In NC, Dole is struggling; in VA, Warner is way ahead. Who could have predicted that three states, two of them confederate states and one, NC, having a history of race-baiting campaigns, would be in play whereas three states that have voted for a Democratic ticket as recently as 1996 are out of reach?
Other reports today had pundits wondering what McCain is doing campaigning in IA, even as he is pulling out of MI. But the GOP is having to defend three solid "red states" in VA, NC, and IN. What's more, when you think about it, is that McCain's campaign is having to spend money in relatively expensive markets that could ordinarily be taken for granted. I would be interested in knowing where their ads are playing in VA, NC, and IN.
Anyway, some may think that if Obama wins any one of these states, or particularly one that has not been close before--like IN, VA, or NC, it's going to be an Obama landslide.
I follow with a poll on which of these new "battleground" states are the best bets to go to Barack Obama and Joe Biden.