Yesterday, doing my best impersonation of ESPN's Sunday Countdown, I laid out my biggest concerns going into the VP debates. This morning, I return to those concerns and offer an assessment.
The Trojan Horse - It is not out of the realm of possibility that an astute political operative (i.e. Karl Rove) would see that McCain stands no chance of winning without at least one game changing debate. Knowing that this is not likely from McCain, that operative would see the opportunity with Sarah Palin. Thus, beyond just setting the expectations low through typical punditry, this time they would show the public an uncertain candidate with questionable intelligence and questionable ability to handle the press. This is not done on the campaign trail, but exclusively through interviews with the main stream press. Then, when she gives a rousing, intelligent and pithy debate performance, all goals are accomplished. Media gloats over her splendid performance. The base is reignited. Worriers over McCain's age are reassured and, best of all worlds, right wingers get to go on the attack that the only reason Palin seemed so bad these last two weeks is because of media bias.
It wasn't a set-up. She really is in over her head. Her recent media gaffes come from not an intentional strategy but from the free-wheeling unpredictable format of an actual interview. The first hint that she was in over her head was when she said in substance in response to the first question "I know the moderator is going to ask me questions, but I have certain answers in my head, so I am just going to give those. Now they might not actually respond to the question asked, but they are straight talk." When you have to preface an entire debate by apologizing in advance for your inability to answer the actual questions asked, you are all but ackowledging that you have a series of memorized answers that you are just going to spew out.
The Format - I have always said that the problem with the Democratic party is that we are a party of policy while the Republicans are a party of soundbites. Our positions are complex to match the complexity of the times we live in. Our views on abortion take sentences to explain. They retort "choose life." The importance (and different kinds) of stem cell research take paragraphs to enunciate. They say "choose life." We have a serious economic policy. They say "cut taxes" or "he's a tax and spend liberal." In a free flowing debate that allows candidates to question each other, we would do great. that's why they don't do them anymore. The debate tonight is going to be nothing but a series of soundbites. Plain will have a bunch of key words and when she hears one, she will launch into a 30 second prepared response. With no real opportunity of a follow up, her soundbites will likely be better than Biden's.
The format helped Palin out enormously. She could give her soundbite answers with no real opportunity for follow up. Plus, the time limits prevented Biden from listing all of the lies. After each question, Biden could only get to about 5-10 of the lies that Palin managed to spew in 90 second segments.
Gaming the Refs - It's started already. The media will go out of its way to make this as close as possible. If they are honest about what they believe the results to be, they will be accussed of being biased, and will be frozen out by the Republicans. If CBS declares it a clear victory for Biden, guess who won't get the prime guests for its sunday morning TV show. Plus, there are never any real news persons judging the debate anyone. It is typically two republicans and two democrats pretending to be neutral.
Joe Biden did great, and Sarah Palin exceeded expectations (by not drooling all over herself), but the truw winner was Gwen Iffil. To paraphrase a song from a great 80s movie, Lets Hear it For the Girl. She was unfairly attacked before the debate and handled herself with grace and dignity during the debate. Sure, I would have liked "we are all stupider for having listened to that answer" but, while true, it probably would not have served her well. I hope she sells a billion books.
The Al Gore Problem - Al Gore sighed too much in his first debate with GWB. So all the Democratic advisers had him practice being less confrontational and more agreeable. Then, he was god-awful in the second debate as he kept saying "I agree with that, I agree with that, I agree with that." Joe Biden has spent weeks prepping for this debate with every advisor and pundit telling him he has to use kid gloves and can't come off as condescending. I just hope that they haven't scrubbed him so clean that he comes off as too passive and respectful. If he focuses his attention on John McCain instead of Sarah Palin, he can be as aggressive as he needs to be. Also, treating Palin different because she is a woman can be just as condescending as treating her the same. In some sense, Biden is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. If he is aggressive towards her, he might turn people off. If he is too passive, some pundit will say that this wasn't a real debate because Joe Biden didn't take Palin seriously because she is a woman. Joe can avoid this if he focuses his points on McCain and not Palin.
The Joe Biden Problem - I have never been one who loved the selection of Biden as a running mate. He is the definition of a gas bag and (much like myself) the more he talks, the greater the risk that he says something stupid. This should be avoided as long as there are no surprises. However, when Biden goes off script, all things are possible. Gwen Iffil may feel pressure to go Bernard Shaw on Biden to prove she is not in the bag for Obama (how absurd). If she does, lets just hope that that there is no mention of Indian Americans or 7-11s.
I'm gonna do these two together because they are related. Can I just say it once. Go Joe Go. I make no bones about the fact that I hated the pick of Joe Biden, but the guy blew me away yesterday. Not just because he was focused and on point, but because he did just about everything right (gay marraige answer aside). He kept the focus on McCain, he had a radiant smile, he connected to the audience, he was respectful of his opponent. Sure, I was scared for a moment when he started wagging his pen at the camera (did anyone else catch that and lose their breath like I did?). And he almost pulled an Ed Muskie. But at the end of the day, he proved to have a much better grasp of the issues (duh) and while Palin's folsky style is garnering praise, it was Biden's relaxed and confident presentation that really brought into focus Palin's droid-like answers.
My biggest concern for this morning was waking up to a media narrative that Palin one just by showing up, not drooling, and saying the names of some foreign leaders. this is exactly what GWB did in 2000 and the media ate it up. And guess what, Palin showed up, she didn't drool, and she knew the names of the leaders of Iran, North Korea and Cuba (although I think the Castro brothers play for the Mets!) But the media didn't buy into it. Instead, I woke up this morning and the media narrative is only slightly different. John McCain is getting more and more angry, and all Sarah Palin can do is smile while spewing out memorized soundbites.
This election is far from over, but I strongly felt this was the best opportunity for McCain to make up ground. We'll see the true results in the polling int he next couple of days, but this morning, I would rather be Obama than McCain.