Is it a head fake to get the McCain camp blinking (you know how they feel about blinking, right)? Or does Obama know something he's not telling us about Nebraska, home of my personal favorite Republican Chuck Hagel? MSNBC reported last month that Obama opened up a campaign office in Omaha, Nebraska, with an eye out for one of the five electoral votes up for grabs in the small state (Is he thinking about the 269-269 tie breaking vote perhaps?) But now Ambinder is reporting that Obama is opening up a second field office in Omaha. Marcambinder
It is true that no democrat has won Nebraska since 1964 when Lyndon Johnson won the state, so the odds are against him winning the entire state outright. It's still a very conservative state, with a Republican governor and Leutenant Governor, and even as late as today, Rasmussen has McCain with a large lead in the state. But the critical question, is not whether Obama is up or down in the state, rather the question is where are the Obama supporters and are they concentrated enough to where Obama can pick up an electoral vote? (Does this remind anybody of the primaries?) Remember Nebraska's quirky rule of proportionally allocating it's electoral votes, instead of winner take all, as in most states. This could indeed be a game changer in a close-call election. Two of Nebraska's Five electoral votes go to the state-wide winner, and the remaining three are apportioned based on the congressional districts. This means that it is possible for either candidate to split the electoral votes of the state of Nebraska.
Clearly Obama thinks it's possible that he can pick up at least one electoral vote in Nebraska, specifically one coming from the 2nd Congressional District. Last month, when MSNBC first reported that the Obama campaign opened up an office in Omaha, it appeared that his was the first presidental campaign office for either candidate in the state.
See report
Plus, we know that Obama had phenomenal registration and GOTV efforts in his win in this 'small state that doesn't matter' during the primaries in June (sorry I really don't want to go there). Obama won Nebraska by 68 percent over Clinton and recall that it was largely due to the city of Omaha, which gave Obama a big lead. He also won pretty big in Lancaster County, home of the state capital Lincoln, by a 58-42 margin. So going after this area for the general election is extremely smart and should have McCain reeling trying to catch up, since McCain can't afford to lose a single electoral vote in a reliably red state. But interesting, according to the MSNBC article linked above, McCain did not have any offices in the state-- at least as of last month.
It just goes to show once again that the Obama campaign has had a strategy to win this thing throughout. I laughed at some of the pundits who a month ago was mocking Obama's 50 state strategy as fantasy, as it was reported that he had to pull out of certain states. (I think it was S. Dakota?) And while it's true that this strategy has had to be adjusted to realities on the ground as we get closer to the election (duh), it doesn't mean it wasn't a wise strategy to follow in the first place. Now, this strategy could perhaps pay huge dividends in the general election by giving Obama a clear cut win in the event of a tie. Sure he would get the same result from a House vote, but the legitamacy of an outright electoral vote win would be huge.
I can't wait for all the insider write-ups about this campaign after the election. It will be a fascinating study of how to run the most compelling, disciplined, strategic, and successful campaign in history. Obama always seems to be two steps ahead of his competitors. What a quality to have in a President!