Ipsos post debate polls show that Harper won the debate, even though he's the only leader who had more hate him after the debate than before. Why? Because the other 69% who said he didn't win was split 4 ways. Just like how they will win if people don't vote strategically (That does not mean vote Liberal. eg. In Edmonton-Strathcona, that means vote NDP.)
The Winner...
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper emerges as the winner heading into the conclusion of Thursday’s English-language debate, with 31% of Canadian voters who responded to the survey while viewing the English-language debate saying the Prime Minister was poised to win (down 9 points from the 40% who thought he would win). This is compared 25% who feel that NDP Leader Jack Layton was set to win (up 5 points), placing him in a close second-place finish. Interestingly, more English-speaking Canadians who viewed the debate thought that Green Party Leader Elizabeth May (17%, up 13 points) was winning the debate than thought Liberal Leader Stephane Dion was winning (15%, up 4 points). Just 2% of Anglophones thought that Gilles Duceppe would come out on top (up 1 point). One in ten (10%) viewers didn’t know who was winning the debate.
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Impressions of the Leaders...
Subtracting worsened impressions from improved impressions, opinions of Elizabeth May improved (net +49) the most as a result of the debate, while Jack Layton (net +28) also fared well. Stephane Dion (net +11) also had a solid debate, while Gilles Duceppe (+6) also came out ahead. The only party leader to have overall impressions worsen was Stephen Harper (net -10), despite the fact that more viewers thought he won the debate than another leader.
Canwest editors seem confused about the current state of our federal economy -- It's doing well: Lorne Gunter (Edmonton Journal) says that the economy is doing just fine and the federal leaders are making a mountain out of a molehill. It's doing terribly: The Ottawa Citizen worries that we are about to head into a pretty deep recession and apparently it's Dalton McGuinty's job to solve it.
Greg Weston: Dion tried hard, but just couldn't land a blow on Harper all night long. Layton, on the otherhand, not only landed multiple blows on Harper, he did it with a fricken sledgehammer.
Andrew Coyne: This election isn't a culture war, it's a class war. Harper, like the good Rovian politician that he is, knows this and is doing everything he can to ensure it remains that way -- if he succeeds in dividing us, he will get his majority.
Murray Mandryk is wondering where all of the Saskatchewan Conservative candidates are hiding these days.
Naomi Lakritz points out that even if Harper were to turn into a hard-core socialist, start giving away billions of tax dollars to his family and friends, nationalize every industry in the country, drive the federal budget into trillions of dollars of debt and even start killing babies on his front lawn as a sacrifice to the great Baalzebub, he may lose Edmonton-Strathcona or Edmonton Centre, but not much else in Alberta.
Carol Goar begs the NDP and Liberals to find common ground, for Canada's sake.
Don Martin: Dion hasn't staged his comeback yet. Clearly Dion did terribly during the English debate, and as far as I can tell he hasn't walked across water or raised people from the dead. Obviously, he's a total failure as a leader.
Earl McRae:
I don't know who did the interpretations into French of last night's televised English-language debate, but I'm assuming the voices viewers heard for the five party leaders didn't sound like Bugs Bunny, Sylvester the cat, Tweety Bird, Elmer Fudd, and Foghorn Leghorn.
That's my assumption, but I can't say for sure because I watched the debate in English.
Josee Legault asks a very important question -- Has Harper given up on Quebec?
For Quebecers and Canadians who worry about their financial future, Harper had nothing to offer - no clear leadership to demonstrate. Dion's surprise "30-day plan" to protect the Canadian economy could expose Harper's philosophical reluctance toward strong state intervention at a time when even neo-con presidents George W. Bush and Nicolas Sarkozy are begging for it.