Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/30-10/01. Likely voters. MoE 5%
Teague (D) 47
Tinsley (R) 43
Very, very impressive numbers for Democratic candidate Harry Teague in this open-seat race (in the district of retiring Republican Steve Pearce).
Teague's own internals show very similar numbers to this poll - they have Teague up 46-41 - and the venerable prognosticators at the Cook Political Report and Swing State Project have moved their rating of this race to "Tossup" as of last night.
This is a district with a PVI of R+5.7, where no Democrat has won election since 1978. President Bush received 58% of the vote here in 2004. Yet Harry Teague, a former oilman and Lea County Commissioner, is poised to do just that.
He's fortunate to have drawn a weak opponent, Ed Tinsley, with a background as a lobbyist, who doesn't even live in the district. The Cook Political Report notes one of Tinsley's most glaring missteps:
While this district's conservatism should provide Tinsley a boost, insiders say he has run a less than perfect campaign. At an August forum, Tinsley went off message when he said that Teague wanted to "cut (troops) throats" by cutting off funding for the war.
Ordinarily Tinsley, the Republican, could count on a healthy landslide in NM-02 in the presidential election to carry him to victory. This year, however, it doesn't look as though there will be such a landslide, though it appears McCain will win the district.
McCain leads Obama 49% to 42% in the district, a far cry from the 58-42 drubbing John Kerry received at George Bush's hands in 2004. This is perhaps due to Obama's strength among Hispanic voters, among whom he leads John McCain by 17 points in New Mexico. Given that Hispanics comprise 42% of New Mexico's voting population, such a lead is obviously significant.
With Tinsley down in the polls, a relatively competitive presidential split in NM-02 is very good news for Democrats, and Harry Teague in particular.
If Teague wins, along with Martin Heinrich in NM-01 and Tom Udall in the U.S. Senate race, it will yield an entirely Democratic federal delegation from New Mexico, for the first time in the state's history.
On the web:
Harry Teague for Congress
NM-2 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Second Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 30 and October 1, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 192 (48%)
Women 208 (52%)
Democrats 132 (33%)
Republicans 156 (39%)
Independents/Other 112 (28%)
18-29 68 (17%)
30-44 130 (33%)
45-59 126 (31%)
60+ 76 (19%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ed Tinsley? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 9% 31% 28% 9% 23%
MEN 11% 33% 26% 8% 22%
WOMEN 7% 29% 30% 10% 24%
DEMOCRATS 5% 19% 41% 13% 22%
REPUBLICANS 14% 43% 14% 5% 24%
INDEPENDENTS 8% 31% 29% 9% 23%
18-29 7% 27% 31% 12% 23%
30-44 11% 34% 26% 7% 22%
45-59 8% 30% 29% 9% 24%
60+ 10% 33% 26% 8% 23%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Harry Teague? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 34% 24% 9% 21%
MEN 10% 31% 28% 11% 20%
WOMEN 14% 37% 20% 7% 22%
DEMOCRATS 17% 46% 14% 5% 18%
REPUBLICANS 6% 21% 35% 14% 24%
INDEPENDENTS 13% 35% 23% 8% 21%
18-29 15% 37% 21% 7% 20%
30-44 9% 31% 27% 11% 22%
45-59 13% 35% 23% 8% 21%
60+ 11% 32% 26% 10% 21%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Harry Teague the Democrat or Ed Tinsley the Republican?
TEAGUE TINSLEY OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 43% 3% 7%
MEN 44% 48% 3% 5%
WOMEN 50% 38% 3% 9%
DEMOCRATS 84% 8% 2% 6%
REPUBLICANS 13% 77% 3% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 39% 3% 7%
18-29 50% 40% 2% 8%
30-44 45% 46% 3% 6%
45-59 48% 42% 3% 7%
60+ 44% 45% 3% 8%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 42% 2% 7%
MEN 53% 41% 2% 4%
WOMEN 45% 43% 2% 10%
DEMOCRATS 9% 84% 2% 5%
REPUBLICANS 83% 8% 1% 8%
OTHER 48% 41% 2% 9%
18-29 46% 45% 2% 7%
30-44 52% 39% 3% 6%
45-59 48% 43% 2% 7%
60+ 50% 41% 2% 7%