A key problem for McCain's campaign as Obama gains traction in swing and tipping-point states is the conservatives that never liked him, and might otherwise have voted with the Libertarian Party or the Constitution Party, figuring that their vote wasn't needed to stop Obama.
Detail about college-age conservatives from Virginia's GMU below the fold...
An opinion column by graduate student Jacob Fawcett in the Sept. 22 issue of George Mason University's (VA) campus "Broadside" newspaper (Sorry, no link -- print only) highlighted several areas where McCain allegedly departs from conservative canon:
- tax policy
- political speech from the pulpit
- global warming
- regulation (I guess as much a deregulator as he's been, real red-bloods despise his forays into re-regulation)
- immigration
- stem cell research
...and goes on to say (remember, this was 9/22 -- what a difference two weeks makes):
...it is unlikely that dissent among the political right will hurt the GOP in Virginia and that is precisely why many Mason students will feel free to cast a protest vote in November.
[In 1996] Dole won Virginia ... but lost Mason's congressional district by two percent when five percent of area voters turned to conservative insurgent Ross Perot. The Republican Party may still count on Virginia votes, but whether John McCain can expect unquestioning support from conservatives at Mason remains to be seen.
I wonder how ready those dissenters will be to swing back to McCain to help shore up a collapsing state -- certainly if their preference is issue-based to begin with, flip-flopping won't help, and negative ads may not help either, especially if Obama increases his "penumbra" of approval.