Like it or not, Obama has an undecided voter problem and this election is far from over.
If a voter hasn't decided who to vote for at this point, they likely have some discomfort voting for Obama. This is somewhat understandable given Obama’s relative lack of experience/tenure on the national scene; coupled with the color of his skin, flag pins, Muslim smears, Ayers and Jeremiah Wright... These points collectively are what make Obama a "riskier choice" in the minds of undecided voters.
While I believe the remaining two debates, additional town halls and Obama's ground game will help ease the perception that Obama is a riskier choice, Obama will still be at risk to lose up to 4% of voters in the last week of this election. This 4% will be critical in the remaining swing states.
We have some examples of Obama's last minute undecided voter problem from primary exit polling data:
1. Texas: Obama actual was up 50-49% for the 80% of voters who made up their mind at least 4 days before the primary. He lost 60-39% for the 20% of voters choosing in the last 3 days. Texas ended up 51-48% so Obama lost Texas solely because of losing the last minute undecided voters. Kudos to the Hillary campaign for the 3am ad.
2. Ohio: Obama lost Ohio by 53-45% in total, but lost the 21% of voters choosing in the last 3 days by a 58-40% margin.
3. North Carolina: Obama won NC by over 14% (56%-42%), but Hillary won the 9% of voters who decided in the last day by a +7% margin (52-45%). Against McCain, Obama can’t take a 21% swing in voter sentiment in North Carolina for the 10-20% of voters deciding last minute.
In a year when we should expect the Democrat to win the undecided voters, it’s very likely that Obama might lose them not on issues but on risk perception. I should point out that Kerry actually outperformed Bush with late deciding voters winning the 9% of voters deciding in the last 3 days by 53% to 44%. The distinction being that Kerry did not have a risk perception issue that Obama does.
As we learned yesterday, McCain will try to capitalize on this and emulate the premise behind Hillary’s 3am ad to again interject doubt into voters’ minds about whether they can trust Obama. I’m grateful Obama campaign is doing everything they can to get as many people to vote early as possible. Its possible over 1/3 of voters will vote before November 4. Also, I hope Obama continues to do Town Halls to give voters less scripted chances to feel comfortable with him. Despite all this, we have some disadvantages that will play out in the last few weeks. Let’s not get complacent and brace ourselves for really vicious last minute character attacks for this very reason. Not this time...