A new poll is released by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, showing Obama opening up an 18 point lead in the state. There is no third party data that I have found so far, nor have I seen any information about pushing leaners or restricting candidate choices.
A few points, several of which were brought up in the discussion of yesterday's poll showing Franken with a 9 point lead.
Firstly, the Star Tribune is notoriously erratic in its polling, perhaps due in part to their use of different firms and/or methodologies -- yesterday's poll of the Senate race was conducted by Princeton Survey Research, whereas from the newspaper article this appears to have been done more by the newspaper itself. Regardless, ANY poll that shows one candidate or another so far outside the trend of polling (yes, SurveyUSA, I'm casting a baleful glance at you as well) needs to be taken with a shaker of salt. I would say, though, that in this case there is ample reason to temper that immediate surge of optimism.
Secondly, is it too much ask for, Minnesota? All I want is a chance to look at a somewhat rational trendline for this election cycle. Instead, there you go again Joe (insert wink here), you have to go and be all schizophrenic and independent minded and third party sympathetic. I swear, if it weren't so nice to live here I'd give you a good stern talking to.
More seriously, I've been banging my head against the wall for weeks now. Pretty much every poll that's been released involving Minnesota, including both this one and yesterday's Senate poll, has been contrary to my daily experience and observation in the Twin Cities Metro. I'd peg the state at around a +8 for Obama...as was mentioned in the comments to yesterday's entry, Minnesotans really don't like the negative politics that the Republicans are running on this year. Enough dislike for an 18 point Obama lead? A 9 point Franken lead? That feels like a stretch, at least within a week's time.
Thirdly, thank God for Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight. Though I keep cautioning myself not to take his data as gospel, at least not until he's got a successful cycle analysis under his belt, I can't help it. His data looks and feels instinctively right, and the methodology looks sound (at least until my eyes glaze over...I do chemistry, not statistics!). It's been the best buttress to my sanity this year by far. Only 30 more days...