I live in OR-05. This district stretches from the wealthy South Portland suburbs (Lake Oswego, West Linn, Wilsonville), through farm country, the Capital of Salem, and south to just north of Corvallis. It stretches from the Cascades to the coast at about the same area
The seat is currently held by retiring Dem. Darlene Hooley, a centrist Democrat who has held the seat since 1996. Marion County, where Salem is located, comprises the majority of the population in the district, and it tends to be one of the most conservative in the Willamette Valley. This had been a majority Republican district for many years but, as the moderate Republican that used to be the dominant poltical force in Oregon has died out, Democrats have made huge inroads and now hold a narrow +1 registration edge in the district. When Hooley announced that she would retire, the Republicans announced this as one of their key pickup opportunities. However, they have devoted little resources to the effort.
The race pits Republican businessman Mike Erickson against Democratic veteranarian Kurt Schrader. Both are flawed candidates with little name recognition. They have both had only one ad this cycle: Schrader has had a nice little bio ad, Erickson's only ad is an attack (of course), and the only mention of his name in the ad is that "he approves the message." Schrader has been a state legislator, Erickson has no governmental experience, and lost to Hooley in '06.
As I've said, they're both flawed. Erickson dropped his mistress off at an abortion clinic, and went on a cigar smoking trip to Cuba and wrote it off as charity. Schrader was late paying his property taxes a whopping 17 times.
Despite his faults with his tax troubles, Kurt Schrader is a solid progressive. However, he is also very centrist on farm issues, which is a big hit here in farm country. He was the only Oregon Dem to be endorsed by the farm bureau. Given that, plus Obama's coattails, I feel okay that Schrader will win. However:
There have only been two ads for the open seat all cycle.
Neither candidate has much name recognition, though Erickson has run for this seat before.
There has been zero polling of this district.
We only hold a +1 registration edge in the district.
Zero polling. Not by the local newspaper. Nor the local TV stations. As I've said, I think we're fine here. Maybe I'm the only one worried about it, but I'm paranoid.
Somebody poll this damn race!