The Dog knows that some on the Dem side of things will be upset by the idea that we are not only going to win, but win big. There is a shocking level of superstition about saying the obvious, even within the Dog’s family, but it is time to call it as the Dog see’s it. We are going to win the White House, we are going to win big in the House and we are going to come with in a seat or two of getting a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. This is not an excuse not to donate (if you have any dough left, that is) or volunteer, or just talk up our candidates to those around you, but it is time to stop thinking about just getting by and start thinking about making this wave election as into a tsunami.
Two years ago at this time we were thinking that Dems might do well, there was an on going sex scandal in the House, worse (for the Repugs) it was a gay sex scandal from a Florida Congressman. The war in Iraq was an (at the time) unmitigated disaster, with national news organizations trying to decide if they would call it a Civil War or not. The price of gas was in the mid $2.00 range (sounds good now, huh?) being just off of all time highs (in unadjusted dollars, anyway). We had forced Joe Lieberman to run as Independent, mostly punishing him for his support for the war and showing the when Dems had some courage of their convictions the public would not only understand but support them for it. With all of that, there were still those who worried that we would not get the gains that seemed possible. When the dust had settled on election night, we had picked up seven seats in the Senate (counting the two indy’s that caucus with us) and 32 seats in the House, a historic wave by anyone’s standards.
Now we are in 2008 and the Dog is here to tell you that things look even better for the Dems this time. In the Senate there are 35 seats being contested this time. Of these, 23 are currently in Repug hands, with the reaming 12 in the Dem column. As of today, the Pollster numbers say the only 11 Repug seats are strongly for them and another four lean their way. Compare this to the 14 strongly Dem races and three that lean that way. Right now we can pretty much count on picking up 5 more seats and that is before the toss up races in AK, MN, and OR! We are nearly at same amounts of gains that we achieved in 2006, and are likely to get one or two of the remaining toss ups, which would top that performance and give us a total of 8 new Dem seats in the Senate.
In the House things look we have 233 seats (meaning our entire majority) are in the strong column and another 6 are in the leans column. The Repugs have only 170 that are strong and 10 more that lean their way. There are 16 seats that Pollster.com considers toss ups. Of those there are 6 that are within a point in the polling average. Given that we are in a election cycle that favors Dems, it is reasonable that we will win those seats. That would mean a net of 12 seats with a possibility (since waves tend to sway toss ups our way) of as many as 18 new Dems in the House. This would give us a majority of between 245 and 251!
There are only 11 races for Governor this cycle so and the split is 5 strong for Dems, 4 strong for Repugs and two that are toss ups. It is possible that we will take the North Carolina State House, if the state goes for Sen. Obama.
Now lets get to the big Kahuna , the Presidential Election. As of today, the Pollster.com Electoral College chart shows a landslide for Sen. Obama! 320 EV (Electoral Votes) for Sen. Obama (182 strong, 138 lean) to 163 (158 strong, 5 lean) for Sen. McCain and 55 in toss up status. The toss up EV’s are in five states, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina. Even if Sen. McCain wins all those states (really unlikely to the Dog’s mind) that would leave the final tally 320 to 218, or a crushing defeat!
Now all the usual caveats apply, things can change, there could be a hidden bigoted vote that will reduce the Obama total, we don’t know how many new voters will turn out, etc., etc., etc. But there is reason to be confident and to use that confidence to demoralize and demotivate our opponents. We can and should hold our heads high in the very sure knowledge that everything is going our way and against the Repugs. This is the time to get out there and make sure that in state senate and house races, in mayoral and local office races the coat tails of our national win extend a long way.
For years we have been calling for a repudiation of the Repugs, their tactics and their policies, the time is now to achieve it! We have four more weeks to make this as punishing and crushing a defeat as the Repugs have had in generations, we are on our way, but while we should not be worried nor should we be complacent. You have the chance to be part of historic change, and all it will cost you is some missed episodes of Gossip Girl and Knight Rider. Surely that is enough motivation, no?
This year is shaping up to be a huge wave for Dems and Progressives. It is time to reap the benefits of our efforts and that starts by being confident we are not only going to win, but win big!
The floor is yours.