Rasmussen has three new polls out today, all showing movement towards Obama.
The numbers:
PA
Obama 54 (51)
McCain 41 (43) Previous poll: 9/28
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
WI
Obama 54 (48)
McCain 44 (46) Previous poll: 9/15
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
AK
Obama 40 (33)
McCain 55 (64) Previous poll: 9/9
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
I think the question is rapidly becoming when, not whether McCain pulls out of Pennsylvania, as poll after poll has been showing him with a double-digit deficit in the past week or so. This will be a bitter pill for him after the huge investment he made in PA during the campaign: by ad spend I believe this was their most heavily targetted Kerry state.
The favorability ratings in PA are also striking: Obama is net +19, McCain now only +1. Obama now also ties McCain among white voters (what was that problem he was supposed to be having again?)
Wisconsin is also moving Obama's way though not as dramatically as PA.
And even Alaska has moved closer as Palin fever diminishes, although it still looks safely red.
Of course, these polls are all pre-debate but I don't think McCain can expect much of a bounce from his lame performance last night. And remember the final one (gulp!) is on the economy. That's really going to help him make the sell in the mid-west.
[update]
SUSA has some less good news from NC, where they give McCain the lead 49-46. Remember, though, that they had McCain +20 in their last poll just after the RNC, so this still shows a big swing towards Obama even if it's not as good for him as some other recent NC polling.
Also, unusually - and refreshingly - SUSA admit that it all very much depends on AA turnout, which they may be underestimating. They are modelling 20%/750,000, but if it rises to 22%/850,000 they think Obama would move into a narrow lead.
So now we have it from the pollsters, too: registration and turnout are key this year!