Overlooked in the "strum und drag" over the economy and the Presidential debate is a breaking story over a new National Intelligence Estimate that warns that the powderkeg in Iraq may be ready to blow up again and undo the surge.
The last remaining leg on the McCain campaign stool may be getting sawed off.
Proving my saying that conventional wisdom is always the former, and rarely the latter, a new National Intelligence Estimate warns that eye of the storm in Iraq may be passing and a new wave of violence could be at hand.
The 'conventional wisdom' espoused by wingnuts, Sister Sarah wind up dolls (they really talk- in an annoying twang) Lieberman ( a once progressive Connecticut AG, whose conversion is driven by his fundamentalist religious views), and elements of the media humming the tune is that "the Surge has worked" and is the sole cause of the drop in violence in Iraq.
In our society, where most have the attention span of a hummingbird, people pay attention only to US casualty counts, have moved on to other issues and simply accept this explanation.
Lost in translation is the fact that in addition to the Sunni Awakening cited by Obama, other causes such as de facto ethnic cleansing leaving many areas religiously segregated (Sunni's and Shia's don't like each other much Johnny), the exodus of millions of Sunnis to Syria and Jordan, and the Sadr ceasefire remain largely ignored.
Excerpts from the story follow:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/...
http://news.yahoo.com/...
U.S. intelligence warns Iraq war could explode again
By Jonathan S. Landay, Warren P. Strobel and Nancy A. Youssef, McClatchy Newspapers Tue Oct 7, 5:15 PM ET
WASHINGTON —
A nearly completed high-level U.S. intelligence analysis warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, potentially reversing the major security and political gains achieved over the last year
...
The findings seem to cast doubts on McCain's frequent assertions that the United States is "on a path to victory" in Iraq by underscoring the deep uncertainties of the situation despite the 30,000-strong U.S. troop surge for which he was the leading congressional advocate. ....
May I humbly suggest to the loyal opposition that they might want to change the 'Talking Points" CD in the back of their Stepford Sarah doll in light of this..but don't let the truth get in the way of a good story..or one that can be memorized.
U.S. officials say last year's surge of 30,000 troops, all of whom have been withdrawn, was just one reason for the improvements. Other factors include the truce declared by anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al Sadr , the leader of an Iran -backed Shiite Muslim militia; and the enlistment of former Sunni insurgents in Awakening groups created by the U.S. military to fight al Qaida in Iraq and other extremists.
U.S. officials? - they must be misguided Obamacratic appartichicks, or worse yet, Kossacks,
"The findings of the intelligence estimate appear to be reflected in recent statements by Army Gen. David Petreaus , the former top U.S. commander in Iraq , who has called the situation "fragile" and "reversible" and said he will never declare victory there."
"The NIE findings parallel a Defense Department assessment last month that warned that despite "promising developments, security gains in Iraq remain fragile. A number of issues have the potential to upset progress."
Trouble spots include whether the former Sunni insurgents, also known as the Sons of Iraq , find permanent employment; provincial elections scheduled for January; Kirkuk's status; the fate of internally displaced people and returning refugees; and "malign Iranian influence," the unclassified Pentagon report said."
The intelligence agencies' estimate also raises worries about what would happen if Sadr, the anti-U.S. cleric, attempts to reassert himself, according to senior intelligence officials familiar with its contents.
So I ask again- what the hell is it exactly that 'we are winning" - maybe the answer is in the question - we own a piece of hell.
I hope the campaign will ask this question, because the cost in lives and outlays by 'real American' taxpayers is too high a price to pay for such 'victories'.