I first stumbled across the mad geniuses at Five Thirty-Eight through Daily Kos. I was immediately hooked. It became my habit to chart the progress of the race very few weeks to see how events were changing. After a while, I lost the habit, but I did it again this evening so I could see where we were, and how that compared to those weeks back in June when Obama had first wrapped up the nomination.
Ah, those were heady days, filled with the smell of polyurethane (I was installing panelling in my kitchen) and potential victory.
When I made my first chart on June 1, I split it into three categories. The first was states that were "Safe Obama". These were states that FTE had projected as an Obama win 80% of the time. These were: MA, CT, ME, RI, VT, NY, NJ, MD, DC, DE, IL, MN, IA, CA, WA, OR, and HI. These 17 states had a total of 207 electoral votes.
The next column was for states that were in play for each campaign. States where Obama had between a 20% and 80% chance of winning. They were: FL, NC, VA, MO, OH, MI, WI, ND, CO, NM, NV, IN, NH, and PA. These 14 states had a total of 171 electoral votes, and with the exception of North Dakota, Virginia and North Carolina, I think that all would agree that these fit the criteria of classic battleground "purple" states.
The last column was for states that were not in play for Obama. FTE had him winning these states less than 20% of the time. They were: GA, SC, TX, AL, LA, MS, TN, KY, AR, WV, KS, NE, SD, AZ, UT, ID, MT, WY, AK, and OK. These 20 states combined for 160 electoral votes for McCain. This was my base map as of the beginning of the general election campaign.
Here is how things stand today, October 9.
Safe Obama: MA, CT, ME, NH, RI, VT, NY, NJ, MD, DC, DE, VA, PA, MI, IL, WI, MN, IA, CO, NM, CA, WA, OR, and HI. 24 states, 286 electoral votes.
In Play: FL, NC, MO, WV, OH, IN, NV, MT. 8 states, 97 electoral votes.
Safe McCain: GA, SC, TX, AL, LA, MS, TN, KY, OK, AR, KS, NE, ND, SD, AZ, UT, ID, WY, and AK. 19 states, 155 electoral votes.
What has happened in the last four+ months? McCain has been effective in holding onto his base: The Deep South, the Great Plains, and parts of the Mountain West. He has lost 2 safe states (West Virginia and Montana) and gained 1 back (North Dakota). However, he has been unable to build upon his foundation. His complete and utter inability to make inroads in the swing states has his campaign in serious trouble.
Obama, on the other hand, has been able to improve his standing heading into the last four weeks of the campaign. While he has only brought one state into play from the McCain column (West Virginia), he has moved a total of 7 states worth 79 electoral votes (VA, MI, WI, CO, NM, NH, and PA) from a toss-up status into the safe column. The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and the Pacific Coast are Obama country, and he has made huge gains in the Border South and the Intramountain West.
This serves to show the relative ceilings of the Obama and McCain campaigns. The handicaps that Mccain was running under; the economy, the war, his party, and the specter of George Bush, have helped limit his appeal to those regions where he was going to win anyway. He has to hope for a miracle and sweep all the remaining toss-up states, and then somehow try to pick off a couple of states that seem to be in Barack's pocket right now.
On the other hand, Obama has run a nearly flawless campaign. However, we cannot act like a team that has a three TD lead early in the fourth quarter. As Illinois football fans know, there is ALWAYS enough time to lose a big game. That is why, after this Saturday when I will be in Champign to watch our boys in Orange and Blue put a hurtin' on the Golden Gophers of Minnesota, I will be in Wisconsin every weekend from now to election day, canvassing to make sure that this is one game that we do not lose.