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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/7-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Kuhl (R) 42
Massa (D) 49

Heads up -- we've got nine House polls to roll out between today and Monday, and this is the best looking of them all. So just a fair warning before we get too spoiled by the good news.

Because this one is ridiculously good news.

O2B candidate Eric Massa is obviously running a fantastic race -- winning independents by double digits, winning over 12 percent of Republicans while losing only 5 percent of Democrats, and sitting just a hair-width away from taking a seat he lost by just three percentage points in 2006. In fact, Eric Massa has outraised wife abuser Randy "Shotgun" Kuhl by a narrow margin, something you don't see every day. Incumbents usually vastly outraise challengers, but Massa ran a great race in 2006, and has learned the right lessons from his first bid last cycle to kick it up even higher.

Remember, this ain't an easy district -- Bush won it 56-42 in 2004. But Obama is winning it 48-45 this time around, making it easier for downticket candidates like Massa to ride the wave. But in this district, I think Massa may be carrying a few coattails for Obama himself. NY-29 is the slice of red in the southwestern tip of NY:

We knew he was a fantastic candidate back in 2004, and we're eager to see him finish what he started this November. Kuhl is drowning. Throw him an anvil.

On the web:
Eric Massa for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

NY-29 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL - OCTOBER 2008

This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Twenty-Ninth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 7 and October 8, 2008.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


                   SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  192 (48%)
Women                208 (52%)

Democrats            144 (36%)
Republicans          159 (40%)
Independents/Other    97 (24%)

18-29                 72 (18%)
30-44                122 (31%)
45-59                130 (32%)
60+                   76 (19%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Randy Kuhl? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         22%         28%         16%         23%

MEN                 12%         24%         25%         14%         25%
WOMEN               10%         20%         31%         18%         21%

DEMOCRATS            5%         11%         40%         21%         23%
REPUBLICANS         18%         34%         16%         10%         22%
INDEPENDENTS        10%         21%         29%         17%         23%

18-29                7%         18%         32%         18%         25%
30-44               14%         25%         24%         14%         23%
45-59               10%         20%         31%         17%         22%
60+                 12%         24%         26%         15%         23%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Eric Massa? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         32%         17%         10%         28%

MEN                 12%         29%         21%         12%         26%
WOMEN               14%         35%         13%          8%         30%

DEMOCRATS           20%         43%         10%          4%         23%
REPUBLICANS          5%         21%         25%         16%         33%
INDEPENDENTS        13%         33%         16%          9%         29%

18-29               15%         36%         14%          6%         29%
30-44               11%         29%         20%         13%         27%
45-59               14%         34%         15%          9%         28%
60+                 12%         30%         18%         12%         28%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Eric Massa the Democrat or Randy Kuhl the Republican?

                   MASSA       KUHL        OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         42%          1%          8%

MEN                 46%         46%          1%          7%
WOMEN               52%         38%          1%          9%

DEMOCRATS           87%          5%          1%          7%
REPUBLICANS         12%         78%          1%          9%
INDEPENDENTS        52%         40%          1%          7%

18-29               52%         39%          1%          8%
30-44               46%         45%          1%          8%
45-59               50%         41%          1%          8%
60+                 48%         43%         -            9%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         45%          2%          5%

MEN                 44%         50%          3%          3%
WOMEN               52%         40%          1%          7%

DEMOCRATS           87%          6%          2%          5%
REPUBLICANS         11%         83%          2%          4%
OTHER               51%         42%          2%          5%

18-29               52%         41%          1%          6%
30-44               44%         49%          3%          4%
45-59               50%         43%          2%          5%
60+                 46%         47%          2%          5%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 12:51 PM PDT.

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