Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/7-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Culberson (R) 48
Skelly (D) 40
Kos wrote earlier that the NY-29 poll represented some of the best polling news we have this week. That's true, but there are other polls showing some promising news for Democratic candidates, and this is one of the very best.
Democratic candidate Michael Skelly trails incumbent Republican John Culberson by eight points, which may not seem impressive at first blush...until you process just how Republican this district is.
The district has not been represented by a Democrat since 1966, when it was won by future president George H.W. Bush. The district gave current President Bush 69% of the vote in 2000, and 64% in 2004. With a PVI of R+15.6, this district stands as the 36th-most Republican in the nation out of 435.
This district has not even been seriously contested since 1970, much less seen a Democrat polling within single digits - but less than four weeks before the election, Michael Skelly is right there, and he has the incumbent Culberson below 50% to boot.
Skelly enjoys superior favorables to Culberson (40/27 fave/unfave, to 43/38 for Culberson), and is very nearly tied with the incumbent among unaffiliated voters (Culberson leads 46-41). In addition, Skelly has proven one of the best fundraisers of all Democratic candidates this cycle, having consistently outraised Culberson this year.
This race is almost certainly going to go Culberson's way, but no Democrat in four decades has stood as good a chance as Skelly does of taking the upset.
TX-7 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Seventh Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 6 and October 8, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 192 (48%)
Women 208 (52%)
Democrats 132 (33%)
Republicans 156 (39%)
Independents/Other 112 (28%)
18-29 68 (17%)
30-44 132 (33%)
45-59 120 (30%)
60+ 80 (20%)
White 312 (78%)
Black 28 (7%)
Hispanic 49 (12%)
Other 11 (3%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Culberson? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 15% 28% 27% 11% 19%
MEN 17% 31% 25% 11% 16%
WOMEN 13% 25% 29% 11% 22%
DEMOCRATS 8% 17% 39% 16% 20%
REPUBLICANS 22% 40% 14% 6% 18%
INDEPENDENTS 14% 27% 28% 11% 20%
18-29 13% 25% 31% 12% 19%
30-44 17% 30% 25% 9% 19%
45-59 16% 28% 25% 11% 20%
60+ 16% 29% 27% 11% 17%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michael Skelly? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 27% 20% 11% 29%
MEN 11% 25% 23% 13% 28%
WOMEN 15% 29% 17% 9% 30%
DEMOCRATS 21% 39% 11% 5% 24%
REPUBLICANS 6% 17% 29% 18% 30%
INDEPENDENTS 12% 26% 20% 9% 33%
18-29 15% 31% 17% 9% 28%
30-44 11% 24% 25% 14% 26%
45-59 12% 26% 20% 11% 31%
60+ 13% 27% 19% 10% 31%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Michael Skelly the Democrat or John Culberson the Republican?
CULBERSON SKELLY UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 40% 12%
MEN 51% 39% 10%
WOMEN 45% 41% 14%
DEMOCRATS 10% 79% 11%
REPUBLICANS 82% 6% 12%
OTHER 46% 41% 13%
18-29 44% 43% 13%
30-44 52% 37% 11%
45-59 49% 39% 12%
60+ 48% 40% 12%
WHITE 56% 33% 11%
BLACK 5% 77% 18%
HISPANIC 24% 61% 15%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 51% 39% 3% 7%
MEN 55% 38% 3% 4%
WOMEN 47% 40% 3% 10%
DEMOCRATS 13% 82% 3% 2%
REPUBLICANS 85% 5% 2% 8%
OTHER 49% 36% 5% 10%
18-29 48% 42% 3% 7%
30-44 55% 37% 3% 5%
45-59 51% 38% 3% 8%
60+ 50% 39% 2% 9%
WHITE 58% 31% 4% 7%
BLACK 4% 93% - 3%
HISPANIC 32% 58% - 10%