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Favorable. And then some.


Strategic Vision (R)
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

1,200 likely voters, +/-3
Obama 52, McCain 44
(9/23: Obama 45, McCain 48)

1,200 likely voters, +/-3
Obama 48, McCain 46
(9/9: Obama 44, McCain 48)

My understanding of SV is that it has a Republican house lean. More interestingly, is the comparison with the previous SV polling for those states, Florida showing a +11 move from McCain to Obama and Ohio a +6 move from McCain to Obama.


Also of note, the polling was done Monday - Wednesday, so it only picked up one day of post-debate reaction.

I still don't understand how McCain wins this election if he loses Florida, and the trend in Florida remains just gawdawful for him.

Originally posted to membengal on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:17 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips (22+ / 0-)

    I didn't see anything on this when I searched Strategic Vision in the diaries, so I hope this isn't duplicative.

    Some decent news to start the day.

  •  This broadside of negativity... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    janmtairy, RadioGirl

    from McCain is going to have some effect, the question is how much.

    •  I think the affect will be McCain backlash... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ming Vase

      Bush team did this 2 elections in a row, look where we are at now.

      Americans are thinking economics and their children's future. McCain is so 2000.

    •  Its already causing a backlash.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I hate to tout Zogby, but McCain was closing the gap in his poll until the Ayres crap reared its head. Now Obama is pulling away again. P now up 5%. Check the analysis from Zogby's site:

      Negative Campaigning Perhaps Causing a Backlash?

      The rolling survey was conducted in part after the McCain campaign launched attacks against Obama for his associations with a former pastor and a one-time leader of a radical group in the 1960s, but McCain, not Obama, is the one who has lost ground in the last two days since this new McCain campaign strategy was ratcheted up. This may be a reaction by likely voters to negative campaign tactics, which have not worked this year.

      Pollster John Zogby noted early in this presidential race that because voter anger and disillusionment at Washington was so strong, negative campaign tactics would likely not work this time around, and could backfire.

  •  The McCain Camp should be heavily concerned (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    that even GOP Polling Firms showing Obama ahead in FL & OH.

  •  I heard Colonel Trautman is looking for McCain... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Johnny Rapture

    "It's over Johnny-It's over!!!"

  •  New Civitas/TelOpinion (R) NC Poll (7+ / 0-)

    O 48 %
    M 43 %

    Dangerous Ground for MacPain.

  •  Yeah it's looking bad for McCain (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    His debate performance hurt him a lot.  I wonder what that means for the last debate?  Will McCain take the gloves off this time or will he play nice?  I think it's obvious that the kitchen sink strategy is not working for McCain so he should change his focus.

    Little known fact -- John McCain was a POW!!!

    by Unstable Isotope on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:22:10 AM PDT

    •  He Assured Irate Audience Yesterday He'd Attack (0+ / 0-)

      Obama. nt

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:33:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He promised to do just that, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      "take the gloves off" and "take it to Obama" to those attending his campaign rally yesterday.  I'm not sure how his rhetoric can get any nastier (or any more inconsequential, considering the economic meltdown) unless he's planning to get in Obama's face at the next debate and directly accuse him of being a terrorist.  He seems to be revving himself up to the level of his bloodthirsty supporters now, so maybe we'll be treated to his losing control entirely - complete with red-faced yelling and spitting - on national teevee next week.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:34:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Get nastier? (0+ / 0-)

        Well, the n-word is just about all he has left.  Or he could walk on stage with a hood on and burn a cross.  That's about it.

        'That One' just kicked your ass.

        by RichM on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:44:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't buy it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        He said the same thing before this last debate, when he told a woman in his audience "How about Tuesday night?" when she asked when he'd get tough.

        He can't tell those bloodthirsty crowds that he'll chicken out once he's face to face with Obama.

        The Repugs see those audience reaction lines taking a dive every time he goes negative (and when Obama goes negative as well).  And that's on relatively mild legislative stuff.  If he starts spouting off about Ayers and Wright during the debate, those lines will go off the bottom of the screen.  It's a no-win situation.

        And I love it.

        •  only difference is he is niw (0+ / 0-)

          publicly humiliated b/c the press is showing footage of his raging supporters attacking him at his own town hall. AND Obama and Biden have pretty much called hima pussy for not "saying it to Obama's face"

          his base will be uber pissed if he doesnt attack Obama in the last debate. Its just a matter of whether Mccain goes for the short term placation of his base or whether he thinks strateg...oh, wait. nevermind.

  •  is SV considered reputable? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I live in Florida and these numbers surprise the hell outta me. It's great if true. Really great!

    -7.38, -5.23 "Though the storm may be raging, and the billows tossing high, Lord I feel like going on."

    by CocoaLove on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:23:04 AM PDT

    •  I am not sure of their overall reputation (0+ / 0-)

      Nate at 538 does some ranking, may be worth checking out.

    •  Cocoa - (0+ / 0-)

      you're in the Miami area, right?  Steve Hildebrand has set up shop down that way ... if you can volunteer and learn lots from that ground-game guru!

      Joe Biden was here Wednesday morning and the response was HUGE for 8:30 in the am - and people were fired up!  (even if the guy introducing him had a 'brain fart").  It was funny, the college repubs scheduled their "protest" for 10:30 - that's about when the metal detectors were removed.  No one was outside to hear/see them.  About 3 stayed - but last I saw, they were having a frank and civil conversation with several Obama supporters.  I betcha they left their signs there and are now Obama supporters.  Betcha :)

    •  Nate at (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      amk for obama

      ranks them in the upper half of pollsters.

  •  Imagine we could be having a President-Elect... (6+ / 0-)

    at 9pm ET if we win NC, VA and FL

  •  An electoral map without Florida... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, amk for obama

    is a day without sunshine for Republicans.

    You have to look at the broader implications of this--if Florida comes our way that means it's very likely that anything colored blue in '04 stays that way and other red prizes--VA, NC, OH, NM--will at the very least be competitive to the point that McLosesHisBase will have to fight like hell to keep them.

    And that's time and money not spent in swing states.

    McOhNo! is in deep, dark, smelly trouble.

    •  Unfortunately these polls don't take into account (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      the voter suppression now being conducted by the Republicans in all the swing states.  Millions of voters are being stricken from the rolls, mostly Democrats, and the Republicans are well on their way to stealing another election.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:38:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They can steal a close election... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RFK Lives, bear83, mdmslle

        heck, even with the purges in 2000, we lost Florida, and therefore the whole thing, by what 600 votes?

        Appalling as voter suppression is--the way things stand right now it would take suppression on a very grand scale to turn this around. And that would very likely blow up in their faces before the election.

        Keep in mind, I'm as jaded a cynic as you'll find. Yes, by all means, fight suppression, expose suppression--indict and convict suppression. But my well-versed gut tells me that there are not enough suppressors out there to stop this wave.

  •  Rasmussen NC Senate Hagan 49 Dole 44 (5+ / 0-)
  •  We might know... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Iberian, WarrenS 10pm EST on election night who the winner is, if Obama picks of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, or any multiple of those. I don't see how McCain wins it if he loses any of those three, and things look even worse for him the farther west you go.

    Which one of John McCain's 10 houses is the nicest?

    by Devin on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:29:16 AM PDT

  •  I'm getting cautiously optimistic about Florida (0+ / 0-)
  •  I think in part... (0+ / 0-)

    people are scared about the economy, and all of the negative campaigning is getting to be really annoying.  People want to hear about solutions, but the last thing McCain wants to do is talk about the economy.

  •  I am sooooooooooooo happy (0+ / 0-)

    to see those numbers.  I have begun losing faith in the people of Ohio after seeing that horrible video posted the other day from Strongsville, OH.  They always say that OH reflects the whole country; that's very discouraging to witness the kind of shit that festers in that state.  

  •  SV is a GOP outfit. They're not just GOP leaning (4+ / 0-)

    They are GOP.

    SV was actually the first poll last month to show Obama breaking ahead in CO outside the MOE.  Their methodology is pretty screwy, but they happened to be right on that one.

    The key here is the trend line:  11 point swing in FL and a 6 point swing in OH in samples that are weighted to be GOP friendly.  That tells you that Obama has made significant gains across all demos within the electorate, and especially among white voters.  It also suggests that there might be more erosion in the GOP base than other polls are picking up.  The reason why OH might be tighter than FL is explainable by advertising and campaign appearances.  Obama went to OH yesterday for the first time in a month.  McCain has been there almost every week since the convention.  He has also advertised heavily there, whereas Obama only stepped up his advertising to exceed McCain's spending in the last 2 weeks. In FL, McCain has done few campaign appearances and is being outspent 3:1.  

    Obama is having a good week and polls should be good through the weekend.  He will set himself up well for the next debate.  

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:42:40 AM PDT

    •  they seem to be honest though (0+ / 0-)

      Ohio is very winnable for Obama but I still think it's less winnable than Florida,Virgina and Colorado or Nevada. Right now Obama would win em all.

      After Obama's eighth straight victory, Penn told reporters: "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election.

      by nevadadem on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 06:28:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  We have to keep working (0+ / 0-)

    These numbers mean nothing. We need to keep working because these blatant racist attacks and distortions and lies droning on and on are going to have the intended affect, maybe not as large but if they can spark a movement away, even a little it will put the race in stealable range. Further they are trying to unleash some very nasty stuff. They are firing on more than one piston. Voter registration fraud centered around ACORN that is playing in the media without the corresponding voter intimidation and suppression is another part of this vile stew they are brewing. Going after ACORN when whatever improper registrations they put in are fractions of all the different ways the Republicans will be trying to disenfranchise AA voters. It will be tense maybe even dangerous. We better be ready to fight hard for this win or with all of these great polls today we can still lose by November 4th.

  •  Strategic Vision is GOP-oriented (0+ / 0-)

    They are based here in Atlanta and work exclusively for GOP candidates. And, in their polling here in Ga, they are notorious for underestimating black voter turnout.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, ... I'm a Democrat." Will Rodgers

    by CCSDem on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 05:56:13 AM PDT

  •  Well that's because . . . (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I still don't understand how McCain wins this election if he loses Florida

    He can't.  McCain has to win both Florida and Ohio to even have a chance.  And even if he manages that, he's still in trouble.

    •  McCain has to win (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Same As It Ever Was

      FL, OH, NV, VA, NC, IN plus since IA and NM (formerly GOP states) are solidly blue, McCain must also pick off a blue state to win.  He is nit polling well ina any blue state.

      In short McCain's electoral prospects look worse than the polling.

      McCain could win FL, OH and VA and still lose b/c Obama has all the blue kerry states PLUS two formerly red bush states (IA and NM) and if Obama bagged say IN and NC he wins. McCain needs them ALL plus a blue state to win.

    •  Yeah, I know... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Same As It Ever Was

      ...I was going for subtle humor with that. Sometimes doesn't translate over the internet...

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