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Is Obama gonna carry Missouri?  FL?  WV even?

I think it might be time for us Dailykos political geeks and monsters out there to put out links of predictions of what the map will look like on November 4th.  This is a prediction thread.  I got the idea because where I worl there's an office pool on not only which states will go red and which ones will go blue, but by what MARGINS!  Ooooh that's a tough one.  They are doing one today with a rather complicated point system and anothe on the 29th when things look a lot more predictable by then.  In fact, they're giving more money on the one put out by the close of today because, logically, it's much harder this far out.  But, c'mon, for us political geeks, this really is NOT too far out.  

You can use the same LATimes interactive map that I did and provide the link in your post.  This ought to be GOOD and FUN, especially if it creates discussion and people actually bother to EXPLAIN why they chose the map they chose.   AND WE CAN DO A FINAL ONE AS THINGS CHANGE. SAY, A WEEK OUT FROM NOV. 4TH.

I will start:

Originally posted to BoyBlue on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 07:39 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  My conclusion at this point: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ExStr8, Newzie, Moe Gamble

    HTTP://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-votemap,0,2338623.htmlstory?usergen=110100010111111011111010 111110110010001001000000010

    I just don't see Mo going to O. But it'll be thisclose. Less than a point.

    But what i will personally find VERY satisfying is two states of the original confederacy will go to a black man, helping make him president of the United States.

    How many confederates and dixiecrat racist fucks will be spinning in their graves on November 4, 2008? Jesse Helms at least had the sense to fuckin die rather than see NC vote for a black man. That old prick.

    Btw, Liddy Dole is G-O-N-E.

    John McCain is so old, he told Methuselah and his friends to "GET OFF MY LAWN, YOU DAMN KIDS!"

    by BoyBlue on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 07:40:48 AM PDT

    •  MO will go O (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      iowabosox, chiefsjen

      I'm not talking smack here--I'd put the likelihood at about 60%.  

      Some math to back it up:

      Bush defeated Kerry by 135,000 votes in 2004.  Obama's voter registration drive has been more aggressive than Kerry's was (though I haven't seen official announcement of results yet).  I'm sure we've found 135,000 new voters.

      As my Republican friends point out, the Republicans are the 'good Americans' and they always vote.  Translation:  there is not capacity among their best demographics for improved numbers.  On the other hand, African-Americans vote overwhelmingly Democratic but their participating has lagged.  Same with young new voters.  As Obama would say, Not this time.

      •  From the other side of MO (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        paj1, St Louis Woman

        I'm in KCMO...clay county -- a county that bush took in 2004.

        bush also took columbia, mo where Univ of MO is...

        all barack needs is clay county and the university town and it's in the bag for MOBAMA.

        Clay county is very much in support of Obama right now -- the 'signs' literally are everywhere in some places...Obama signs/bumper stickers/people on the street out number Mccain support here.

        and just cuz i cant stop talking about it... I got to meet and shake Joe Biden's hand yesterday in Liberty Mo...

        he was fired up and WE'RE READY TO GO MOBAMA!!!!

        Obama/Biden '08 and beyond!

        by chiefsjen on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:45:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not True.... (0+ / 0-)

          Gore won both Clay County and Columbia yet still lost MO.  Obama needs improved margins in the St. Louis suburbs if he's gonna win.

          •  No time to look up numbers but you both could (0+ / 0-)

            be right.  

            I can, however, assure you that margins in St. Louis County have grown very nicely since 2000.  And I believe (from some evidence, not just faith) that we are going to see an extraordinary margin from St. Louis County this time.  And the City will be bigger than at any time over the past 8 years, too.

            •  If Memory Serves Me..... (0+ / 0-)

              Gore won Clay County by exactly one vote in 2000, and won Boone County (Columbia) by about 0.6%, so the victories were marginal.  Nonetheless, Gore won 10 more Missouri counties than Kerry did, including significant counties like Buchanan County (St. Joseph) and Jefferson County (southern St. Louis suburbs).  I get the feeling Obama is gonna underperform even Kerry in rural Missouri, which tells me the election will be won or lost based on the size of the Obama margins in St. Louis County and Jefferson County, and how much he can shrink the McCain margin in St. Charles County.

          •  i was talking about 2004 (0+ / 0-)

            not 2000. :)

            Obama/Biden '08 and beyond!

            by chiefsjen on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 06:04:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  woohoo! Biden is doing a great job in his (0+ / 0-)

          role, isn't he?  Obama has to be so happy that he picked him.  

          Gee, I guess that can happen when you actually, you know, think about your decision before you announce it.

  •  well (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bobdevo, soms, ItsSimpleSimon

    my sign line has a link to my own EV site that people can check out.

    It's more of a "where the race stands now" than a prediction, though.

    evstatus.com - Status of the Electoral College

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 07:44:25 AM PDT

    •  Your map and my brain pretty much agree . . . (0+ / 0-)

      I sure hope we're right.

      "we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex" Dwight D. Eisenhower

      by bobdevo on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 07:51:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I hereby predicteth . . . . (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FightingRegistrar

    ME, NE, VT, RI, MA, CN, DE, NY, NJ, PA, MD, DC, VA, NC, FL, OH, WVA, IL, IA, WI, MN, MO, CO, NM, CA, OR, WA, MT, HI

    "we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex" Dwight D. Eisenhower

    by bobdevo on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 07:49:07 AM PDT

  •  bullsh*t...missouri goes for obama.. (6+ / 0-)
    we worked ourass off here and no way does
    the old fart take this state...in barbershops
    and beauty salons...inthestreets...rain..
    100 degreeweather...mo goes to o!
    Headed tocolumbia to canvas foro this
    saturday...itsour time baby....
  •  My big pick of an upset? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    iowabosox, Vicky, bobdevo

    Montana.  McCain doesn't have much of a presence there and there are lots of new voters registering daily.  There is late registration in person until November 3rd.  That gives Obama an edge.

  •  I predict... (4+ / 0-)

    ...that the Gravelanche, despite losing two different primaries, will make a stunning comeback and sweep 49 states.

    McCain/Palin can't be a team of Mavericks. One of them, by definition, has to be Goose.

    by DH from MD on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 07:51:09 AM PDT

  •  Capitulation (0+ / 0-)

    What you are seeing is voter capitulation to the Democratic ticket. The Republican, as well as the market, loses more and more credibility every day. All trends are in Obaman's direction.

    The next three states to fall to Obama are Missouri, Indiana and West Virgina. They are so close. Maybe another week. Soon they will leave the Dark Side.

    "As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where do they go? It's Alaska" -- Gov. Sarah Palin

    by makemefree on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 07:54:22 AM PDT

  •  My prediction (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    iowabosox

    All Kerry states + IA, NM, CO, NV, OH, FL, VA, NC, IN, MO, GA and WV.

    •  In other words (0+ / 0-)

      a landslide.

    •  Slight disagree... (0+ / 0-)

      All Kerry states + IA, NM, CO, NV, VA, MO and WV.

      Ohio and Florida -- well just me not wanting to get cocky.

      North Kakallaky? -- in 2012, I say definitely, but don't want to pull the trigger just yet.

      Georgia and Indiana? - REAL long shots. But Georgia is a distinct possibility in 2012 or 2016. Even Texas could happen for us in 2016 or 2020.

      But keeping things in the here and now, if they lose NC and VA, they are screwed up the rear end for a good long while. And in 5-20 years, when the oldest boomers and their parents start passing away, and the millennials start exercising their power, it's gonna be ON as far as purple states like OH, FL, MO and perhaps even AR.

      Whenever there is a war to be fought, those who are the most likely to fight it are the least likely to gain from it.

      by Jank2112 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:49:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  yes (0+ / 0-)

    We've been in the Obama column ever since Senator McCaskill endorsed him.

  •  Still working on my wife.. (0+ / 0-)

    She says she isn't voting..was a HRC backer. Live in St. Charles, Co. I think she will be voting, but doesn't want to say it.. but if we can break close to even in St. Chuck, then I think that O will win the MO.

  •  Missouri will go Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chiefsjen

    IF he has a clear lead on election day. They like being a bellweather.

    (-4.73,-5.05) I like living in a culture of choice.

    by amnesiaproletariat on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:07:32 AM PDT

  •  "We're gonna need a bigger electoral boat" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jank2112

    Honor is a gift you can only give yourself. Doubly so in politics.

    by Bull Schmitt on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:08:16 AM PDT

  •  If the stock market continues to tank McCain will (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    iowabosox

    be lucky to carry Utah.

  •  I am still skeptical about Ohio turning blue (0+ / 0-)

    Obama will pick up the majority in Cleveland & Columbus but there are huge swaths of the state that are very backwards/rednecky and Palin/McCain have been riling them up. I have written OH off yet but I think it will be a breath-holder on election day.

  •  If the stock market bounces back . . . (0+ / 0-)

    . . . so will McCain.

    -4.25, -4.87 "If the truth were self-evident, there would be no need for eloquence." -- Cicero

    by HeyMikey on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:12:28 AM PDT

  •  Texas will be alot more purple............. (0+ / 0-)

    ...........this election.

    An old friend from Borger Texas, NE of Amarillo, and a long time political activist told me about the goings on in Amarillo over the last few months.

    Now picture Amarillo as a deep glossy red area and its frail Democratic diehearts.

    The Dem party there is made up of some pretty disallusioned folks. In fact, when an Obama team of activists showed up and wanted to do some registrations and get out the vote activity, the die-hards of the triditional crowd, said ....no thanks.

    Soooooooooooo the Obama crowd got busy, opened their own hub and worked their tails off and even raised money to get Obama some attention and what ever else they could do to get Obama elected.

    Well, the ole Dems showed up and demanded the money. I guess you know how happy that made the activists. Again they said no.

    The last i heard(about a month ago) the Obama crowd has registered just about as many Democrats onto the voter rolls as were already on them. And they were still going great guns.

    And that isn't hardly the beginning of the efforts going on in Texas, dispite some unexpected opposition in a few areas from some diehard Dixicrats.

    Texas may remain in the Republicans corner this election, but not for long after that, is my prediction. Texas will become next times battelground state and McCain will have to pour some money into Texas this time to keep it.      

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