Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Shadegg (R) 48
Lord (D) 39
Anzalone Liszt Research (D) for the DCCC. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (No trend lines)
Shadegg (R) 44
Lord (D) 45
Shoen (L) 5
We screwed up in the Research 2000 poll by not including the Libertarian candidate. In 2006, the Libertarian got 3 percent. In 2004, with no Democrat on the ballot, it was 20 percent. In 2002, 2 percent. So it's a district that will give at least a couple of points to the Libertarian. And if there's a year that Libertarian-minded Republicans will cast protest votes for Libertarians, it might be this one. But even with that oversight, Bob Lord is within single digits and Shadegg under the magical 50 percent mark.
Crosstabs below the fold.
On the web:
Bob Lord for Congress
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AZ-3 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Third Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 6 and October 8, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 197 (49%)
Women 203 (51%)
Democrats 116 (29%)
Republicans 183 (46%)
Independents/Other 101 (25%)
18-29 68 (17%)
30-44 128 (32%)
45-59 121 (30%)
60+ 83 (21%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Shadegg? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 35% 31% 10% 12%
MEN 14% 38% 29% 9% 10%
WOMEN 10% 32% 33% 11% 14%
DEMOCRATS 5% 22% 44% 15% 14%
REPUBLICANS 20% 47% 17% 6% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 11% 35% 32% 10% 12%
18-29 7% 27% 31% 12% 23%
30-44 11% 34% 26% 7% 22%
45-59 8% 30% 29% 9% 24%
60+ 10% 33% 26% 8% 23%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Lord? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 9% 33% 28% 7% 23%
MEN 8% 31% 31% 8% 22%
WOMEN 10% 35% 25% 6% 24%
DEMOCRATS 14% 45% 14% 3% 24%
REPUBLICANS 5% 20% 43% 11% 21%
INDEPENDENTS 9% 34% 27% 6% 24%
18-29 11% 37% 25% 5% 22%
30-44 7% 30% 31% 9% 23%
45-59 9% 34% 26% 5% 26%
60+ 8% 31% 30% 9% 22%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Bob Lord the Democrat or John Shadegg the Republican?
SHADEGG LORD OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 39% 2% 11%
MEN 51% 37% 2% 10%
WOMEN 45% 41% 2% 12%
DEMOCRATS 6% 88% 2% 4%
REPUBLICANS 78% 6% 3% 13%
OTHER 43% 43% 5% 9%
18-29 45% 41% 2% 12%
30-44 51% 37% 2% 10%
45-59 47% 40% 2% 11%
60+ 50% 37% 1% 12%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 39% 3% 8%
MEN 52% 38% 4% 6%
WOMEN 48% 40% 2% 10%
DEMOCRATS 6% 88% 2% 4%
REPUBLICANS 81% 6% 3% 10%
OTHER 44% 43% 5% 8%
18-29 47% 42% 3% 8%
30-44 53% 37% 4% 6%
45-59 49% 40% 3% 8%
60+ 52% 37% 2% 9%