SUSA (10/10/08, 9/17-18 in parenthesis):
Obama: 54 (54)
McCain: 41 (43)
Among men, Obama today leads by 9 points. Three weeks ago -- before three debates and the $700 billion economic rescue package, and immediately after Lehman Brothers, AIG, and Fannie Mae -- the race was tied among men. Among women, Obama had led by 20, now leads by 17.
6% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama. Independents favor Obama by 6 points.
Obama is winning the 18-34 age group 59-33.
The most important metric is the people who have already voted
Among the 14% of respondents who have already voted Obama is winning 65-31
Using some back of the envelope mathematics, that would mean that McCain would have to win by about 5.5% of the remaining 86% to even tie in Iowa. Guess what? Obama is winning 52-42 among those remaining 86%.
Not. Even. Close. This is a state that Bush won by two-thirds of a percentage point in 2004 and Gore won by one-third of a percentage point.
I'd just like to give a shout out to all the volunteers who have been going to Iowa to make this state so uncompetitive (Yeah, IL SFBO!).