With 24 days left before the 2008 Presidential Election, there are two distinctly different campaigns at work. This is the State of the 2008 Election as I see it.
The first campaign, that of Democratic Party Presidential Candidate Barack Obama (D-IL), exudes justifiably confident and poised leaders with a full command of the issues and an articulation of solutions for the foremost public policy problem facing the nation: the economy. Both Obama and Biden have concentrated on speaking to the concerns and fears of working-class Americans regarding the present and future of the U.S economy.
In particular, Obama has outlined many salient steps for fixing what ails our present financial crisis:
-Wage disparity
-Tax equity
-Fair trade
-Alternative energy sources
-Green jobs
-Reform the credit markets
-Protect home ownership
Source: http://www.barackobama.com/...
The second campaign, that of Republican Party Presidential Candidate John McCain (R-AZ), is a complete contrast from the Obama campaign. Rather than speak directly to the American people about the current economic crisis, he has taken his campaign in an entirely negative, attack-based direction that eschews any productive discussion of economic issues. He has hitched his wagon to the hope that hate-based personal attacks will somehow supersede the concerns that working-class citizens have regarding their home mortgages, 401Ks, and bank accounts. They have even gone so far as to suggest that mixing it up with Obama on the economy will lead to certain defeat - for their campaign.
Those are the facts. Now, for the analysis:
One has to wonder if John McCain is intentionally trying to deep-six his own party. Many prominent conservatives, including George Will, have blasted McCain for his campaign strategy and his "new" plan to expand what is already an unpopular bailout plan. He has turned his campaign from a contrast in values to a mouthpiece for the reactionary lunatic fringe of the Republican Party.
There is mounting evidence that this course of attack is not only failing to gain traction, but may actually be bolstering support for Obama. Below are the latest national polling results, which all reflect samples obtained subsequent to both the second presidential debate and the concentrated personal attacks:
Newsweek 10/08 - 10/09 1035 RV 52 41 Obama +11
FOX News 10/08 - 10/09 900 RV 46 39 Obama +7
Gallup Tracking 10/07 - 10/09 2784 RV 51 41 Obama +10
Rasmussen Tracking 10/07 - 10/09 3000 LV 50 45 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/07 - 10/09 838 LV 48 41 Obama +7
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/06 - 10/09 800 LV 51 43 Obama +8
In addition, premier election prediction source Fivethirtyeight.com presently apportions electoral votes as follows:
Obama 348.3
McCain 189.7
As I see it, there are two specific reasons why the attack-dog approach adopted by McCain's campaign is turning public opinion against him:
Consider the Source
An intelligent strategist must take into account the source of a policy position to gauge its validity. The notion that harping on Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers was sound strategy was first promulgated by the likeliest of sources: Republican bomb-thrower/water-carrier and resident college drop-out Sean Hannity. Those of you with good memories will remember Hannity as the same Fox News Republican Stooge who found the infamous "Runaway Bride" Jennifer Wilbanks to be "extremely credible" when he spoke to her during that debacle (nevermind that she accused a fictional Hispanic male of kidnapping and raping her). He is also the same genius that tried to re-write the history of Obama's so-called "associations" on the 'fair and balanced' Fox News show "Hannity's America" by casting a known anti-Semite, Andrew Martin, as his so-called "Internet journalist". For those of you keeping score, Martin is the same despicable character that called a judge a "crooked, slimy Jew" - a point-of-view that was conveniently left out of the show by Hannity and his 'fair and balanced' network.
Bottom-line: Hannity may get some play from his fellow reactionary lunatic fringe supporters pushing a narrative like this, but his ability to repulse Independent and Democratic voters is precisely what McCain does not need if he is to climb back into this election.
It's Still the Economy - and the American people reject McCain's negative attacks
Was I the only person who noticed that when John McCain went on the attack at the second debate, the focus groups on all networks (regardless of party affiliation) took a nose dive where support for McCain was concerned? Evidently, the McCain campaign didn't take notice of that very telling public opinion when they fashioned campaign strategy subsequent to the debate.
This is a frightening time for the American working class. Many of them have their life savings in a stock market portfolio that is worth about half what it was a year ago. Their jobs are being cut or shipped overseas. Their banks are being merged at record rates. In short, the American people could care less about who knew who or what from 10, 20, 30, 40 years ago. Is the fact that Obama was an acquaintance of someone who performed deplorable acts four decades ago...or Palin's association with a party that wants to secede from the union...or McCain's association with Charles Keating in 1991 relevant to the fears that Americans have regarding their finances?
Americans want to hear reassurance that the plans of these two candidates will address and fix what ails the country's economy - period. Hannity doesn't get that - because if he did, he would be urging McCain to fix the problem with the same conservative principles he bragged about when the economy wasn't in the hole. McCain doesn't get that - because if he did, he would get his talking points from the American people - as his opponent does - instead of parroting Hannity's blather. Maybe the cold, hard fact is McCain and the Republican Party can't possibly comprehend how hard things are for the working class because they have never taken the time to consider the lives and struggles that everyday Americans face. Maybe the truth about the Republican Party in 2008 America is the following: They are affluent, greedy millionaires who care more about protecting golden parachutes than the life savings of a hard-working factory worker - and they are self-serving opportunists who care more about slimy politics than working to provide solutions for this crisis.
What does all this mean for Election Day 2008? In my estimation, it means that McCain had better jettison this Rovian strategy in lieu of a more aggressive, positive economy-driven message - and he had better do it quickly. The sun is setting on his ability to change his campaign focus. Barack Obama is speaking to crowds in terms of how this economy is affecting them and how his solutions will positively affect them personally. Ironically, McCain's unwillingness to engage on the issues opened the door for Obama to strengthen what was his most glaring weakness during the primaries: His ability to speak directly to and connect with white, working-class voters in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and West Virginia. Now, Obama finds himself ahead (and in some cases pulling away) in the same battleground states that he struggled in during the Democratic Party Primaries.
Because he has allowed himself to be defined by the reactionary lunatic fringe wing of his Republican Party, John McCain has set himself up for failure while simultaneously bolstering Barack Obama's standing among American voters. This has led to a large lead for Obama 24 days out - and promises an even larger win when November 4 rolls around.
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