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Last month when Professor Larry Sabato spoke to my school, he said that he would be watching the following toss-up states: NH, PA, VA, OH, MI, CO, and NV. These states would determine who would win the election.

In his latest Crystal Ball update, Sabato has a new map of toss-up states: FL, NC, VA, OH, and MO. This is BAD NEWS for McPalin and the GOP.

What happened to NH, PA, MI, CO, and NV? All are now leaning/likely Obama. For the first time, Larry Sabato has put Barack Obama over 270 EVs.

Many have criticized Sabato for being a conservative mouth-piece. I don't find that the case. I think he's very cautious in his predictions because he factors in historical voting patterns with polling and voter interviews. While he may be the most conventional of the "conventional wisdom" pundits, Sabato does have a good track record. And I find his analysis clear and refreshing.

Check out his new map at Is the Electoral Dam breaking for Obama?

It's great to see states like GA and WV becoming lighter shades of pink too!
And don't forget these states all have down-ticket races that will be affected by Democratic voter turnout.

Originally posted to orangedem on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 07:59 AM PDT.

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