Chait at The New Republic point out that neither the McCain campaign, nor the sad pathetic folks at the National Review, can, you know, count. Economists. They can't count economists.
The McCFailin campaign put out press release stating that:
100 Economists Warn That With Current Weak Financial Conditions Barack Obama's Proposals Run A High Risk Of Throwing The US Into A Deep Recession
Problem #1: There are only 90 people listed, on the list of "100 economists"
If they can't count economists, how can they, you know, run the economy.
Problem #2: As Chait points out
100 economists is not actually all that many, given the number of economists in our country.
Was the campaign unable to find 100 economists? The list certainly does not suggest excessive discrimination about credentials. It's heavily larded with GOP apparatchiks now residing in the right-wing think tank world (my favorite is "economist" George Schultz of the Hoover Institution), as well as two signatories who list their affiliation as "McCain-Palin 2008." The takeaway here is that, even with the most generous standards, the campaign couldn't find 100 economists in the country to badmouth Obama's proposals, let alone endorse their own.
This trouble with basic arithmetic might explain the McCain campaign's stated beliefs in such fallacies as tax hikes always cause revenues to fall.
Also, as real economists of all prior persuasions are pointing out, the McCain idea of cutting government spending, given the looming recession-depression, is the opposite of the counter-cyclical role for government during such times. It copies Hoover's failed pre-Keynsian economics. No serious non-partisan economist is signing on for that now. Just McCain campaign false rhetoric.
One of Chait's commenters points out other incongruities, notably the absence of some more or less real economists who have worked for the McCain previously (Tomas Philipson) but are not on this list this time.
Perhaps they disagreed with the extremist partisan statement.
Perhaps they are bailin' on the McFailin' campaign.
Seriously, they couldn't find 10 more?
They decided to post the list as 100 anyway?
It's been posted and made fun of for three days, and still not corrected?
Pathetic.
Which brings us to The Economist. It is important to remember that The Economist is itself is strongly biased towards mainstream free market fundementalism. My favorite Economist headline was from the mid-1990s when they proudly had a cover headline announcing Western Europe's "0%" inflation, when unemployment was up around 15% and climbing. But they are not so knee-jerk partisan as to ignore reality completely. Their poll of economists found Obama being favored by many measures:
The detailed responses are bad news for Mr McCain (the full data are available here). Eighty per cent of respondents and no fewer than 71% of those who do not cleave to either main party say Mr Obama has a better grasp of economics. Even among Republicans Mr Obama has the edge: 46% versus 23% say Mr Obama has the better grasp of the subject. "I take McCain’s word on this one," comments James Harrigan at the University of Virginia, a reference to Mr McCain’s infamous confession that he does not know as much about economics as he should. In fairness, Mr McCain’s lower grade may in part reflect greater candour about his weaknesses. Mr Obama’s more tightly managed image leaves fewer opportunities for such unvarnished introspection.
A candidate’s economic expertise may matter rather less if he surrounds himself with clever advisers. Unfortunately for Mr McCain, 81% of all respondents reckon Mr Obama is more likely to do that; among unaffiliated respondents, 71% say so.
The Economist's poll broke separated the economists by self-declared partisan affiliation. The key take away here was that those who declared themselves unaffiliated (warning .pdf) (neither Republican nor Democrat) strongly favored Obama over McCain on pretty much everything:
Overall plan Obama 3.2 compared to McCain 2.5 (on a 1-5 scale)
Will pick a better economic team Obama 71% vs. 18% for McCain
Which candidate has better grasp of economics: 71% Obama vs. 11% for McCain
Would rather work for Obama 58% vs. 14% for McCain
Scott Adams of Dilbert fame (who I find to be an obnoxious selfish libertarian)also did a poll of American economists and found similar stronger support for Obama over McSame. He find a majority of economists to be Democrats, which admittedly goes against my preconception that economists overall tend to be conservative.
Finally, along the same lines, the list of Nobel Prize winners endorsing Obama has grown to 63.
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Here is the list:
1 Allan Meltzer, Carnegie-Mellon University
2 Anna Schwartz, NBER
3 Anne Krueger, Johns Hopkins University
4 Arlene Holen, Technology Policy Institute
5 Arnold Zellner, University of Chicago
6 Barry Chiswick, University of Illinois at Chicago
7 Barry Poulson, University of Colorado, Boulder
8 Bennett McCallum, Carnegie-Mellon University
9 Beryl Sprinkle, Former Chair Council of Economic Advisers
10 Bill Niskanen, Cato Institute
11 Brock Blomberg, Claremont-McKenna University
12 Burton Malkiel, Princeton University
13 Charles Calomiris, Columbia University
14 Charles Nelson, University of Washington
15 Chester Spatt, Carnegie-Mellon University
16 Christopher DeMuth, American Enterprise Institute
17 Dan Crippen, former CBO Director
18 Dan Feenberg, NBER
19 David Spencer, Brigham Young University
20 Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Hudson Institute
21 Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain-Palin 2008
22 Earl Grinols, Baylor University
23 Edward Prescott, Arizona State University
24 Enrique Mendoza, University of Maryland
25 Eric Fisher, California Polytechnic State University
26 Eric Hanushek, Hoover Institutions
27 Frank Diebold, University of Pennsylvania
28 Gary Becker, University of Chicago
29 Gary Hansen, UCLA
30 George Shultz, Stanford University
31 Glenn Hubbard, Columbia University
32 Harvey Rosen, Princeton University
33 Houston Stokes, University of Illinois in Chicago
34 Ike Brannon, McCain-Palin 2008
35 Isaac Ehrlich, State University of New York at Buffalo
36 Jack Tatum, Indiana State University
37 James Buchanan, George Mason University
38 Jim Carter, Vienna VA
39 Jim Miller, George Mason University
40 John Cogan, Hoover Institution
41 John Makin, American Enterprise Institute
42 John Taylor, Stanford University
43 June O'Neill, Baruch College, CUNY
44 Kathleen Cooper, Southern Methodist University
45 Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University
46 Kevin Hassett, American Enterprise Institute
47 Kevin Murphy, University of Chicago
48 Kristin Forbes, MIT
49 Larry Lindsey, The Lindsey Group
50 Lydia Ortega, San Jose State University
51 Mario Crucini, Vanderbilt
52 Mark Rush, University of Florida
53 Martin Feldstein, Harvard University
54 Marvin Kosters, American Enterprise Institute
55 Meir Kohn, Dartmouth
56 Michael Block, University of Arizona
57 Michael Bordo, Rutgers University
58 Michael Boskin, Stanford University
59 Michael Moore, George Washington University
60 Michael Porter, Harvard University
61 Mike Jensen, Harvard University
62 Murray Weidenbaum, Washington University in St. Louis
63 Owen Irvine, Michigan State University
64 Paul Evans, Ohio State University
65 Paul Gregory, University of Houston
66 Paul McCracken, University of Michigan
67 Paul W. MacAvoy. Yale University
68 Phil Levy, American Enterprise Institute
69 Richard Muth, Emory University
70 Richard Roll, UCLA
71 Richard Vedder, Ohio University
72 Rik Hafer, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville
73 Robert Barro, Harvard University
74 Robert King, Boston University
75 Robert Mundell, Columbia University
76 Robert Rossana, Wayne State University
77 Robert Tamura, Clemson University
78 Sanjai Bhagat, University of Colorado
79 Steve Davis, University of Chicago
80 Steve Parente, University of Minnesota
81 Steven Kaplan, University of Chicago
82 Ted Covey, McLean VA
83 Tim Muris, George Mason University
84 Timothy Fuerst, Bowling Green State University
85 Todd Buchholtz, Two Oceans Fund
86 Tom Saving, Texas A&M University
87 Will Melick, Kenyon College
88 William B. Walstad, University of Nebraska
89 William Dewald, Ohio State University
90 William Poole, University of Delaware