Skip to main content

New Hispanic/Latino numbers in battleground states.  The good stuff first

O: 74%
M: 21%
O +53

New Mexico
O: 69%
M: 26%

O +43

O: 71%
M 22%

O: +49

O: 46%
M: 48%

M +2

The latest PPP poll out for CO, relesed tonight shows that Obama is up 52% to 42% and it's internals shows 71-21 support among Hispanics helping drive Obama's numbers up. CO, PPP POll and the PDF

crossposted on my site,.

Latino Decisions has been the one of the polling outfits that has been keeping track of the Hispanic/Latino Vote this election season.  Their polls have been targeting only the Hispanic/Latino community and have been coming out since July.  Since the Democratic primary the numbers for Obama have been going up.  The notion that Obama couldn’t win the Hispanic vote was silly.  The polls showed before the primaries were  wrapped that Clinton’s support would transfer to Obama.

Link to poll data

"The Latino vote will be critical in the Southwest and Florida, and results of this poll show very clearly that Latinos may well provide Sen. Barack Obama with the margin of victory," said Matt Barreto, a University of Washington professor of political science who is a co-partner on the research.

The survey, conducted between Aug. 18 and Sept. 10 also showed that an unprecedented number of Latinos may vote - nearly 90 percent in those states. Given the growing Latino electorate in states like Nevada, where 59,489 Latino voters have registered since 2004, a high Latino turnout could determine outcome of the national election, Barreto said.

Respondents also said the economy is their top priority. Nearly a third said they had trouble making mortgage or rent payments during the past year.

In 2004, all four Latino battleground states voted Republican. However in 2008, those states are leaning slightly toward Obama, a Democrat, according to poll averages collected by Real Clear Politics.

What has been surprising to me is that McCain has been losing ground at a rapid pace.  If you look back at 2004 and go by the exit polls that showed Bush getting 40-44% of the Hispanic vote you would assume that McCain would carry the same support.  First of all I the numbers came from what we all know were flawed exit polls that showed Kerry winning, but I do believe that Bush might have at least increased his parties s support among Hispanics into the high 30’s.

In 2006 we saw Hispanics / Latinos turned into a political football and we saw the demographic turn dramatically to back to Democrats.  Historically Dems  win the demographic by gaining around 65-68% support.  In 2006 we saw dems across the nation gain support of 70+% of the demographic.  The problem was that only 7% of Hispanics voted.  Good news is that the numbers in NV, CO, NM, and even FL are well above the 2004 levels of support that Bush received.  More importantly is that the percent that McCain is receiving is devastating.  In all but FL he’s in the low 20’s.  McCain has spent millions to try and win over the demographic.  His campaign has stated time and time again that 40% was key to victory in Nov.  The very least that they could afford to get was 35% (traditional number).

As the electoral map takes shape, it's increasingly clear the Latino vote may be decisive," said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund, which helped pay for the survey. "In key battleground states," he added, "Latino voters are ready to vote in huge numbers, and a significant percentage is still persuadable. Underestimating the Latino vote could be disastrous for either party."

Latino Decisions, a public opinion firm whose partners include Barreto, Stanford University political scientist Gary Segura and Pacific Market Research, telephoned 1,600 Latino registered voters drawn equally from official statewide files in the four states. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.7 percent for each state.

In 2008, the Latino vote is expected to increase to 9 million, or roughly 8 percent of voters. By comparison, 7.6 million Latinos voted in 2004 and 5.9 million in 2000.

Obama’s numbers have only gone up and up and up and are now at all time highs or holding around his highs from the early Sept. polls that were mostly conducted in August.  He's been holding and increasing these leads since the July/August polls.  With 3 weeks left the ground is just too great to make up.  I would not get too upset about the Hispanic vote in FL because Republican’s normally win the states demographic because of the Cuban vote.  What is nice is that Obama is doing better than normal for Dems in the state.  More good news is that the percent of voters going to the polls this year is expected to increase as noted above.  Why you ask?


The issue carries acoss all demographics and all states
                                  CO         FL         NM          NV
Jobs/Economy           48%      51%      55%      54%
War in Iraq                27%      31%      34%      25%
Health care                20%      17%      20%      13%
Immigration reform    13%      11%      11%      27%

Here are comparison numbers from 2004.  Look at FL.  That is important.  Obama is doing much better than Kerry.  The expected increas in turnout with Obama's current averages is the making of a big big night on Nov. 4th.  Keep up the work and make it happen.

November 2004 (Latinos - NEP exits)

State              Kerry      Bush
Colorado          68%        30%
New Mexico      56%        44%
Nevada              60%        39%
Florida               44%        56%

UPDATE: Latino Decision stopped polling Texas, New York, and California in July because Obama was already BLOWING McCain out fo the water with high 60's and low 70's support.  They decided to focus on the battle ground states.  Democratic Corp tracked the AZ last month and showed Obama winning the vote there by big margins too.

Originally posted to ourhispanicvoices on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 09:19 PM PDT.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site