Ayers might have worked. Well, at least until the debate. By the high standards of last week, Obama had a week polling days on Monday and Tuesday on all national tracking polls except Gallup. Thus his polling numbers on Wednesday and Thursday were slightly down. On Pollster.com's average Obama's Wednesday number was down by 0.8 percentage points from Tuesday. On Thursday, it plunged further by 0.4 percentage points. When the after debate polls started to trickle in, his margin went up again.
Now those results may just mean statistical noises. Or they may be the result of the hotline poll being all over the place. It can also mean that Obama has reached his ceiling and, hence, his margins would logically be fluctuating between his upper numbers and threshold until the Election Day. But the dip also happened after two days of Ayers attacks, and it might not be a coincidence. So should we get scared? Is Ayers Obama's polling nemesis?
Not necessarily. While Obama's numbers decreased by 1.2% McCain's only went up by half of that.If Obama all of Obama's loses had been McCain's gains, McCain would be nearer to Obama by 2.4%. So it seems the bulk of Obama's soft supporters turned undecided after the attack.
But here is the problem for McCain. Either these undecided would also be turned off by the racist tone of his campaign and his supporters, or he would lose some support among his soft voters. It does seem that Ayers, for now, is just a noise.