So here we are between debates, a good time to do another Electoral College Math Diary. It is obvious that the race has shifted even more Obama’s way since my last look at the electoral college numbers was on October 4. But more importantly, is it beginning to gel? Or, to use another metaphor, is it starting to set up like concrete, in a way that makes a reversal to a McCain lead impossible without some jack hammer type event. So in addition to the usual assessment of the race in electoral vote terms, I will try to look at what’s left of the "undecided"pool in specific swing states to see if its realistic big enough to effect a change in the race. So join me after the jump /\ for a State-by-State assessment and summary of where I think the all important Electoral College race stands.
This the 6th diary in my series. This is similar to five thirty eight site by Nate Silver, however, my assessment is a little less statistical, with a little more gut feeling thrown in. If you have a hard time reading threw long diaries as I do, regardless of how good they are, feel free to skip to my summary at the end where I add up the electoral votes and offer some interpretation.
In each swing state I’ll take a look at what the chances are of a reversal of the lead based on an evaluation of the remaining undecideds and the possibility of committed or leaning voters switching to the other candidate.
My resources include: the most up-to-date State polls; the regional numbers from our Research2000 daily tracker; and the State trends from the pollster.com. However, as in the past, I will rely on 538 for much of my data. I have full trust in his process of vetting the polls and doubt I could do a better job. He deserves a lot of credit for his fine analysis.
Before I get into the State-by-State stuff, let me go over my ground rules:
- I rate a "safe" State for candidate as one where the candidate has a +8 lead in the State’s polls.
- I rate a "lean" State for candidate as one where the candidate has between a +4 to 8 point lead in the State’s polls.
- I rate a "toss up leaning" State for candidate as one where the candidate has between around +1 to 4 point lead in the State’s polls.
- Finally, I rate a "true toss up" State as one where the candidate has between a 0 to 1 point lead in the State’s polls. For these "true toss up" States, I do not award electoral votes to either candidate. These 0 to +1 leads are always within the polls MOE, and therefore I don’t consider them as indicating any sort of lead for a candidate.
Also, I don’t always stick to these general rules where my gut tells me different.
So without further delay, here we go!
Alaska (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-6-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +15
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +18.2
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +13.5
State Projection: Safe McCain
Alabama (9 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-9-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +27
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +24
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +20.1
State Projection: Safe McCain
Arkansas (6 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-22-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +9
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +10.6
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +8.8
State Projection: Safe McCain
Arizona (10 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +21
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +13.4
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +10.6
State Projection: Safe McCain
California (55 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-5-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +16
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +13.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +19.1
State Projection: Safe Obama
Colorado (9 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-11-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)*
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +10
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +3.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +7.7
State Projection: Lean Obama
Comment: The "*" indicates that the most recent poll has not yet been included in the 538 averages. However, while the most recent poll is a Dem. poll, it is not far off from other recent polling. Both a 10-5 Rasmussen and a 10-6 Insider-Advantage poll have Obama at +6 in Colorado. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising sharply and McCain starting to dip, with a +6 lead for Obama in the composite as of 10-10. The undecideds in these 3 recent polls range from 2% to 6%. So it would seem that for McCain to win Colorado, he will not only have to win almost all the undecideds, he will also have to eat into the Obama "leaners". As time goes by this seems less and less likely since "leaners" in the last few weeks historically vote their lean. All this supports calling Colorado a "Lean"Obama state.
Connecticut (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-25-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +16
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +15.2
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +18.3
State Projection: Safe Obama
District of Columbia (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-12-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: ARG
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +69
Trend From Previous Poll: None
Average of All Polls: Obama +69
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +71.2
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: What a blow out!
Delaware (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-7-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: West Chester U
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +17.1
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +16.7
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +21.9
State Projection: Safe Obama
Florida (27 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-8-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +3
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +2.1
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +5.8
State Projection: Lean Obama
Comment: The Florida polls for October from 10-5 through 10-8 show Obama at +2, +3, +5,+7 & +8, for an average of +5. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising quickly and McCain dropping like a rock, with an Obama lead in the composite of +5 as of 10-8. The undecideds in these 5 recent polls are 2%, 3%, 3%, 4% & 6%. It seems McCain will need a vast majority of the undecideds to go his way plus some Obama "leaners" to take Florida. While this may seem difficult, and it is, it is not impossible. If you consider the MOE in the polls and Florida’s State Republican control which makes voting difficult for Dem. voters as we saw in 2000 & 2004, I can easily see McCain winning Florida if his poll margins going in are +5 or less. But based on the current poll numbers, I will move Florida into the "Lean" Obama category.
Georgia (15 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-9-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Insider-Advantage
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +3
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +9.1
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +5.6
State Projection: Lean McCain
Comment: Wow! Is Georgia now a swing state? In addition to the most recent poll, a 10-6 Strategic Vision poll has McCain +7 and a 10-7 Rasmussen poll has McCain at +9. This gives McCain a single digit lead, down from his lead that was in the mid teens only a few weeks ago. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising and McCain dropping, with an McCain lead in the composite of +7 as of 10-9. Also, Bob Barr is at 1.7% in the composite, which has to be a substantial drain from McCain. The undecideds in these 3 recent polls are 1%, 3% & 5%. So the remaining undecideds are clearly not enough for Obama to make up the current McCain margins. However, a large turnout of the black community which may not be fully accounted for in the polls, combined with an increased Barr factor, could put Georgia in play. But for now I will move Georgia from "safe"McCain to "lean" McCain for now.
Hawaii (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-23-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +41
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +37
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +39.1
State Projection: Safe Obama
Iowa (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-9-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +13
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +9.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +14
State Projection: Safe Obama
Idaho (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-17-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +29
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +33.9
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +32.4
State Projection: Safe McCain
Illinois (21 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-17-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +20
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +12.0
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +12.5
State Projection: Safe Obama
Indiana (11 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-7-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +7
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +2.5
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +0.9
State Projection: Toss Up - Slight McCain Lean
Comment: Other recent polls show McCain at +2 on 10-5 and a tie on 10-1. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising and McCain relatively flat, with McCain at +2 lead in the composite as of 10-7. The undecideds in these 3 recent polls are 2%, 4% & 8%. So it looks like there are enough undecideds to swing Indiana for Obama or McCain. Not sure if the most recent poll showing McCain +7 is an outlier or noise or a legitimate movement towards McCain, so to play it safe, I will call Indiana "Toss Up - Slight McCain Lean" based on the poll composite and similar indicators.
Kansas (6 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-22-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +12
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +19.1
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +16
State Projection: Safe McCain
Kentucky (8 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +10
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +15.4
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +12.2
State Projection: Safe McCain
Louisiana (9 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-25-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +15
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +13.3
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +10.9
State Projection: Safe McCain
Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-23-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +16
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +16.6
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +18
State Projection: Safe Obama
Maryland (10 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-20-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +23
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +16.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +20.3
State Projection: Safe Obama
Maine (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +5
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +7.6
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +12.9
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: The most recent poll shows no change since the SUSA poll on 9-23. This suggests that Maine is at least steady, and not really trending towards McCain. Also, since the most recent poll is still before the debate, Obama could be gaining ground. The pollster composite shows Obama around +8 as of 10-2. There is really not a lot of polling coming out of Maine, but Obama’s steady lead has me inclined to leave this as "Safe Obama" for now. Keep in mind however, that Maine apportions its electoral votes by State winner and by Congressional District winner, it is not a winner take all State. So if McCain could pick up an EV or 2.
Michigan (17 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-8-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +16
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +5.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +10.5
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: The most recent poll is the only "post-debate", "post-McCain pull-out" poll. Since a 10-3 poll had Obama at +5, indications are that the debate combined with McCain suspending his campaign in this state, have caused a significant up-tick in the Michigan polls for Obama. So Michigan continues to look like a "Safe Obama" state.
Minnesota (10 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-7-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +7
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +6.1
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +9.9
State Projection: Lean Obama
Comment: The 3 recent polls show Obama +14 on 10-5 (MPR/Humphrey), Obama +1 on 10-6 (ARG) and the most recent Rasmussen poll showing Obama +7. Rasmussen being the average of the other two polls, combined with 538's high regard for Rasmussen polls, suggests an Obama +7 lead is probably about right. The pollster trend lines show Obama steady and McCain rising a bit, with Obama at +5 lead in the composite as of 10-7. The undecideds in these 3 recent polls are 2%, 4% & 6%, with 2% coming from the most recent Rasmussen poll. So if you ignore the ARG pollwith its 6% undecideds (538 rates ARG pretty low), the remaining undecideds are not enough to flip Minnesota into McCain’s column. Although I am still somewhat concerned about the volatility of these recent polls, I will go with Rasmussen and the composite result and move this to "Lean Obama.
Missouri (11 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-5-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +3
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: McCain +1.7
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +2.3
State Projection: True Toss Up
Comment: There is an ARG poll out on 10-5 as well, which shows McCain at +3, but 538 rates Rasmussen well above ARG, I used the Rasmussen poll as the most recent. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising at about the same rate as McCain, maybe a little faster, with McCain having a composite lead of +2 on 10-6. The undecideds are within both the spread an MOE of the polls, so Missouri could easily go either way.
Mississippi (6 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +8
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +11.6
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +7.8
State Projection: Safe McCain
Montana (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-7-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: ARG
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +5
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward Mcacin
Average of All Polls: McCain +8.2
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +4.1
State Projection: Lean McCain
Comment: McCain had a double digit lead here a few weeks ago, on 10-1 it was down to +8, and if the most recent ARG poll is to be believed, its down to +5. The pollster shows McCain at a +7 lead in the composite, but there is not really sufficient polling data to discern a credible trend. Still Montana bears watching.
North Carolina (15 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-8-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: McCain +1.4
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +2
State Projection: True Toss Up
Comment: There are 7 polls out since 10-4, which break down McCain +3 & +1.8 to Obama +1,+1, +5 & +6, with the average being Obama +1.2. The pollster trend lines shows Obama rising steadily and McCain almost flat, with a composite that is a virtual tie as of 10-8. Also, the composite shows Barr at 2.2%, which has gotta be coming from McCain. So North Carolina is still a "True Toss Up".
North Dakota (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-17-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +13
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +10.9
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +6.3
State Projection: Safe McCain
Nebraska (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +19
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +21.3
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +18.3
State Projection: Safe McCain
Comment: Nebraska apportions its electoral votes by State winner and by Congressional District winner, it is not a winner take all State. So the 5 EVs could get divided up if Obama can win a district.
New Hampshire (4 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-7-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: ARG
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +9
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +5.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +9
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: Besides the most recent ARG poll, CNN has Obama +8 on 10-5, Rasmussen has Obama +10 on 10-1, and SUSA has Obama +13 on 10-5. The pollster trend lines shows Obama rising sharply and McCain on a slight decline, with a composite that has Obama +6 as of 10-8. The undecideds in these polls range from 2% to 7%, putting New Hampshire now out of reach for McCain unless he can flip some Obama "leaners". I never thought I would do this, but the reputable Rasmussen and SUSA polls showing a double digit Obama lead, means New Hampshire is now a "safe" Obama state.
New Jersey (15 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-7-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +8
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +8.6
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +13.5
State Projection: Safe Obama
New Mexico (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +5
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +6.4
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +11.4
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: No new polling since 10-1. The Albuquere Journal’s 10-1 also shows Obama at +5. The pollster trend lines shows Obama trending upward faster than McCain, with a composite that has Obama at +6 lead as of 10-1. The Rasmussen poll has 3% undecideds, but the Journel’s poll shows 14%, a weirdly high number. But considering Obama’s steady past performance and his upward trend line, I will leave New Mexico as "safe" Obama territory. However, a few campaign stops in this state with Bill Richardson would make me feel better about New Mexico.
Nevada (5 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-12-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Mason-Dixon*
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +3
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +1.5
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +5.3
State Projection: Toss Up - Slight Obama Lean
Comment: The "*" indicates that the most recent poll has not yet been included in the 538 averages. There are 4 polls from 10-2 through 10-12 which show Obama +2, +3, +4 & +7 for an average of +4. The pollster trend line has Obama trending up faster than McCain, with a composite that shows Obama +2 as of 10-6. While Nevada is still in the "Toss Up - Slight Obama Lean" category it is still trending more Obama’s way with each passing day.
New York (31 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Siena
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +22
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +17.1
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +21.1
State Projection: Safe Obama
Ohio (20 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-9-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Insider Advantage
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +5
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +1.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +4.8
State Projection: Lean Obama
Comment: Eight October polls since from 10-4 through 10-9 show McCain +2 & +1, and Obama +2, +3, +3, +5, +6 & +6, for an average of Obama +2.8. The pollster trend line has Obama trending up fast and McCain trending down fast, with a composite that shows Obama upbe +4 as of 10-9. However, the undecideds in these 8 October polls are still main;y within the margin of the Obama leads, ranging from 3% to 6%. Still McCain would need almost all these undecideds to go his way and buck the current trend just to obtain a tie. However if we figure in the MOE, Ohio could still go to McCain. But the current numbers and trend suggests moving Ohio to the "Lean"Obama category.
Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-5-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: TvPoll
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +36
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +32.1
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +25
State Projection: Safe McCain
Oregon (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-9-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +11
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +9.6
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +14.4
State Projection: Safe Obama
Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-6-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Strategic Vision
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +14
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +11.8
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: The four October polls show Obama widening his lead in Pennsylvania with Obama +10, +13, +14 & +15. The pollster trend lines show Obama going up sharply and McCain dipping, with a composite lead of +8 as of 10-7. The undecideds in these polls generally range for 3% to 5%, not even close to enough to make for the Obama lead. It looks like Pennsylvania is now out of McCain’s reach and deserves to be moved to "safe" Obama territory.
Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-21-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: R.I. College
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +14
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +17.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +23
State Projection: Safe Obama
South Carolina (8 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-23-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +15
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +15.2
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +13.3
State Projection: Safe McCain
South Dakota (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-20-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: ARG
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +16
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +15.5
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +11.4
State Projection: Safe McCain
Tennessee (11 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +19
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +17.9
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +14.9
State Projection: Safe McCain
Texas (34 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-7-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: ARG
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +19
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +13.6
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +9.7
State Projection: Safe McCain
Utah (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-12-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: ARG
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +36
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +35.2
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +33
State Projection: Safe McCain
Virginia (13 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-7-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +8
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +7.1
State Projection: Lean Obama
Comment: The four October polls from 10-4 through 10-7 show Obama +2, +8, +10 &+12, with an average of Obama +8. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising sharply and McCain at a flat line, with a composite at Obama +3 as of 10-7. The undecideds range from 1% to 9%, so there may be enough of them to turn things back to McCain. But that’s not the way the trend is going. Looks like we can move Virginia up into the "Lean"Obama column.
Vermont (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-6-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +33
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +25.2
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +30.2
State Projection: Safe Obama
Washington (11 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +10
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +7.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +11.8
State Projection: Safe Obama
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-6-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +10
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +7.4
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +10.8
State Projection: Safe Obama
Comment: There are four October polls taken on 10-5 & 10-6 with very similar results showing Obama at +8, +10, +10 &+10. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising at about the same as McCain, however the composite has Obama at +6 as of 10-6. The undecideds in these polls range from 2% to5%. This means McCain has to eat in to Obama leaners to win Wisconsin. So it looks like we can move Wisconsin to "Safe" Obama. What a shame McCain spent all that time and money there.
West Virginia (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-6-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: ARG
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +8
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: McCain +1.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +2.6
State Projection: True Toss Up
Comment: there are two things that trouble me about the most recent poll: 1. It’s the only West Virginia poll showing Obama in the lead, let alone by 8 points; and 2. Its an ARG poll meaning it rates low on the 538 list. Still, its the only poll we have seen on this state since 9-24 when Rasmussen had McCain at +8. The pollster trend lines show Obama rising and McCain falling, with a composite at McCain +1 as of 10-8. So while I don’t see Obama up by 8, it looks like West Virginia is a "True Toss Up".
Wyoming (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-23-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +21
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +26.6
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +20.1
State Projection: Safe McCain
And Finally, the summary. Drum Roll Please!
SUMMARY [ 270 Electoral Votes To Win]
The Totals:
NOTE: The electoral votes in "(# EV)" are from my October 4 Diary, and are posted for comparison purposes.
Safe Obama = 254 EVs (219 EVs)
Safe McCain = 140 EVs (155 EVs)
Lean Obama = 79 EVs (35 EVs)
Lean McCain = 18 EVs (8 EVs)
Toss Up - Lean Obama = 5 EVs (64 EVs)
Toss Up - Lean McCain = 11 EVs (11 EVs)
Safe + Lean Obama = 333 EVs (254 EVs)
Safe + Lean McCain = 158 EVs (163 EVs)
Total Obama = 338 EVs (318 EVs)
Total McCain = 169 EVs (163 EVs)
True Toss Ups Are:
MO, NC & WV = 31 EVs (unassigned)
COMMENTARY
Obama has strengthened his lead, now 68 EVs over the magic 270 he needs to win. But more importantly Obama is already at 333 EVs with just "safe" and "lean" Obama states, he does not need any of the "toss up"states to win. He has moved a significant number of toss up states into the "lean" Obama column, and some of his previous leaners are now "safe" Obama states. He only needs to hold what he has got for a sizeable win. On the other hand, McCain is 101 EVs short of 270. To win he not only needs all the remaining toss up states and the Obama toss up state, he needs to pouch 65 EVs from the Obama leaners to win, while holding on to all his states.
McCain’s other problem is the race is starting to gel. Obama has 254 EVs from his "safe" states and only needs another 16 to win, or just one or two of his six leaner states. Also, the pool of undecideds left in many of the states McCain needs to pick up to win, are not enough to overcome the margin of Obama’s lead in those states.
If I can use a baseball analogy, we are not entering the stage of the election season where the leading team is ahead by such a margin, that the trailing team must win every game and leading team must lose every game in order for the trailing team to win, at the same time that the number of games (days) left is getting smaller each day. In a nut shell, McCain is on the verge of mathematical elimination.
Looks Good, but let’s all keep working!