Cross posted at slothropia.com.
Here are my final predictions for the Canadian Election on October 14, broken down by region and party. Caveat Lector: These numbers are freshly drawn from my proctological orifice and I tend to be too optimistic about NDP victories.
Caveat Lector: These numbers are freshly drawn from my proctological orifice and I tend to be too optimistic about NDP victories.
The Conservatives will win at least 101 seats, perhaps as many as 142 and probably 119, broken down like this:
Atlantic 6
Quebec 6
Ontario 42
MB/SK 19
Alberta 27
B.C. 21
North 0
The Liberals range is between 64 and 104, with a probable result of 83.
Atlantic 18
Quebec 12
Ontario 46
MB/SK 3
Alberta 0
B.C. 3
North 1
The NDP should win at least 35 seats and could take as many as 63. The likely NDP number is 46.
Atlantic 7
Quebec 1
Ontario 18
MB/SK 6
Alberta 1
B.C. 12
North 1
The Bloc Quebecois should have no trouble winning at least 50 seats in Quebec, and if all goes well for them, up to 65. I predict their final total will be 55.
There will be 2 independent MPs, one in Atlantic and one in Quebec.
The real fun begins on Wednesday morning, when the parties begin to figure out how the new parliament will work and who should form the government. In a minority situation, it does not always follow that the party with the largest number of seats names the Prime Minister. The picture is made cloudier by the leadership questions that may face both the Conservatives and Liberals (and the NDP too, if the don't make any gains at all).
Needless to say I will be watching and banging on my keyboard as needed.