Adam Nagourney has a concern troll piece in today's New York Times of why the race is not over. But as it happens the piece has actually convinced me that the race is actually pretty much over (not that I needed much convincing).
It makes me wonder if that wasn't actually Nagourney's intention. The reasons why follow after the proverbial jump...
The title of the article is of course "It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over". But of course when Clinton said that it was actually over (and it had been for a while). That's a good start. Nagourney then lists his six powerful reasons:
Nagourney comes with the well known meme register-voters-are-not-yet-voters. Although recognising the potential of the GOTV Obama machinery, Nagourney concerns are deep.
If Mr. Obama’s campaign succeeds at what it has promised, it is possible that Mr. McCain will lose in an Electoral College landslide, winning a bunch of Republican states by slim margins driven by get-out-the-vote operations. Still, first-time voters are inexperienced voters and, Mr. McCain’s advisers are no doubt hoping, less likely to turn out if, say, the weather is bad.
So. McCain is relying on the weather to avoid a landslide. Makes sense.
Give us the second, Nag! This is also about the GOTV effort that Nagourney says Obama is building on Rove's model. Maybe even improving. But!
Still, there is one important difference: These are to a considerable extent new operations. The Republican turnout operations got better with each cycle because party leaders figured out what worked and what did not.
Right. If at least Obama had been able to display a bit more of GOTV capacity in the caucus states during the primaries...
Campaigns have rhythms, and inevitably swing back and forth for all kinds of reasons... The pendulum theory is certainly one that Republicans are grabbing onto these days.
Which goes to prove that that when the pendulum stops swinging, it leaves a wreck behind.
What about Mr. Bin? Won't you bring him on?
... it is clear that Mr. bin Laden gave that election a very big jolt in the direction where Mr. Bush wanted to fight it...
This race has been filled with surprises, so it would almost be a surprise if something else didn’t happen before the polls open
Lord God. The ultimate concern, the terrorist attack. Sorry Adam, but the way I see things, not even Mr. Bin would want McCain as POTUS.
Are we done yet? Much to go? Got to get some dinner done.
Are there a significant number of white voters who will not support Mr. Obama because he is black, no matter what they tell pollsters? Some Republicans said they have come to look at this as Mr. McCain’s last, best hope.
The very mysterious Bradley effect. REMEMBER NH ONOZ OMG.
Just one more, one more and that's it, Nag.
"People think he’s basically a decent guy," said Vin Weber, a former Republican member of Congress from Minnesota. But Mr. McCain’s advisers said he intended to keep hitting the Ayers question in the days, if not weeks, ahead, in the belief that this might be what it takes to get his campaign on track.
Ayers? Ayers will give them the election. C'mon, give me a break.