Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE 5%
Dahlkemper (D) 48
English (R-inc) 41
Excellent numbers here for Democratic challenger Kathy Dahlkemper, and a serious cause for concern for Republican incumbent Phil English.
Dahlkemper's lead outstrips Obama's in this district - the Democratic presidential nominee edes John McCain by two points in PA-03, 46% to 44%.
Dahlkemper was initially quoted low odds of knocking off English, as a newcomer to politics, but she has run a impressively strong campaign and put herself in position to defeat the incumbent. She leads among women 52% to 36%, providing her her margin of support...but she trails among men by only two points, 46% to 44%.
Her favorables are exceptional for a first-time candidate, at 49/28 fave/unfave. By comparison, her Republican opponent has 39% favorables, 45% unfavorable.
Dahlkemper looks to be in the catbird seat with three weeks to go.
On the web:
Kathy Dahlkemper for Congress
PA-3 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Third Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 6 and October 8, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 192 (48%)
Women 208 (52%)
Democrats 184 (46%)
Republicans 161 (40%)
Independents/Other 55 (14%)
18-29 68 (17%)
30-44 125 (31%)
45-59 129 (32%)
60+ 78 (20%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Phil English? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 15% 24% 19% 26% 16%
MEN 17% 28% 16% 24% 15%
WOMEN 13% 20% 22% 28% 17%
DEMOCRATS 9% 17% 28% 34% 12%
REPUBLICANS 23% 33% 9% 16% 19%
INDEPENDENTS 13% 22% 21% 27% 17%
18-29 13% 22% 21% 28% 16%
30-44 18% 26% 17% 24% 15%
45-59 14% 23% 19% 27% 17%
60+ 16% 25% 19% 25% 15%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kathy Dahlkemper? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 19% 30% 17% 11% 23%
MEN 17% 28% 18% 12% 25%
WOMEN 21% 32% 16% 10% 21%
DEMOCRATS 27% 41% 8% 3% 21%
REPUBLICANS 10% 19% 28% 21% 22%
INDEPENDENTS 20% 31% 15% 10% 24%
18-29 22% 32% 15% 9% 22%
30-44 16% 27% 20% 13% 24%
45-59 20% 31% 16% 10% 23%
60+ 18% 30% 17% 12% 23%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Kathy Dahlkemper the Democrat or Phil English the Republican?
DAHLKEMPER ENGLISH OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 41% 2% 9%
MEN 44% 46% 2% 8%
WOMEN 52% 36% 2% 10%
DEMOCRATS 83% 7% 2% 8%
REPUBLICANS 9% 80% 1% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 48% 40% 3% 9%
18-29 50% 39% 2% 9%
30-44 45% 44% 3% 8%
45-59 49% 40% 2% 9%
60+ 48% 40% 1% 11%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 44% 3% 7%
MEN 42% 49% 4% 5%
WOMEN 50% 39% 2% 9%
DEMOCRATS 80% 8% 3% 9%
REPUBLICANS 7% 85% 3% 5%
OTHER 47% 43% 4% 6%
18-29 49% 41% 3% 7%
30-44 42% 49% 4% 5%
45-59 47% 43% 4% 6%
60+ 46% 43% 1% 10%