Folks, I have been writing for several weeks now that something is happening down here in Florida, something that's making me hopeful that Obama can win the Sunshine State. Numerous recent polls have consistently shown Obama with a 5-6 point lead in the state, and another poll out yesterday confirmed that, which has Florida Republicans continuing to freak out, as the St. Petersburg Times reports today. But rest assured the GOP is going to try to fight back, and of course it's already playing the race card. Still, we have the Repugs running scared down here, schlepping and all.
Although Florida is a purplish state, its politics have been dominated by Republicans for many years. Democrats have won the presidential race in Florida only twice in the past 10 elections (or three times, depending on how you want to look at it). But this graph has the GOP worried:
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Ground zero for the Democrats' prospects of winning back Florida rest here in central Florida, specifically the I-4 corridor between Tampa and Orlando. The southern part of the state will go Obama's way, the northern part will go McCain's way, but the I-4 corridor is up for grabs. Which makes yesterday's poll results for Hillsborough County (where Tampa is located) so important:
A Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll of 638 likely voters in Hillsborough County (margin of error plus or minus 3.8 percent) released Tuesday showed Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 41 percent. If accurate, that would spell real trouble for McCain, as Hillsborough consistently goes Republican in presidential elections.
So like everywhere else in the country, the GOPers are wringing their hands down here. For weeks now there have been reports of tension between the state Republican party and the McCain campaign, as noted by the Times article today:
Republicans are increasingly worried about John McCain's prospects in must-win Florida.
The McCain campaign spent most of the summer watching Obama build a massive voter mobilization operation and flood Florida's TV airwaves with ads. For months, they scoffed at how little it did to boost Obama, but now the Democrat has opened up a steady lead in Florida polls and top Republicans are sounding uncharacteristically anxious that the campaign and state party are doing too little, too late.
"Obama obviously has spent a ton of dough, and the fact that we haven't spent a fraction of that has got people concerned. They see all these ads and very little response,'' said former Republican National Committee finance chairman Al Hoffman, a top McCain fundraiser in Florida.
Indeed Obama is vastly outspending McCain on TV ads, which are so critical in a huge state like Florida. Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post reports today that Obama outspent McCain on TV ads in Florida by $3 million over the past week.
In Florida, for example, Obama is now spending just shy of $5 million a week on television -- a $1.8 million (!) increase from just a week ago.
I can confirm the difference in TV ads here in Tampa. I'm seeing a lot of different Obama ads all the time, sometimes three different ads over the course of a single one-hour program. Most of them are positive and all of them are very well done. But I've only seen a smattering of McCain ads, and usually it's the same nasty, lying Ayers ad (Blind Ambition) that is nothing more than a muddled mess.
Obama is also running circles around McCain's ground game in Florida. Obama has more than 400 paid staffers organizing in Florida — about four times what McCain has here. The Times notes that Florida GOP chairman Jim Greer once suggested that Obama's big Florida campaign operation was "fiction," but now he's running around the state trying to duplicate it. But it doesn't seem to be going too well. Some state leaders are not only starting to throw McCain under the bus, but they are also starting to point the finger at Gov. Charlie Crist.
While Republican leaders in Tampa Bay say they see a strong grass-roots operation with plenty of enthusiastic volunteers, many Republicans are skeptical. Veterans of past Republicans campaigns say they see little outreach by volunteers and note that Crist never focused on grass roots mobilization as aggressively as Jeb Bush.
Bush-Cheney officials used to scoff at Democrats' reliance on paid canvassers and phone callers. This year the McCain-Palin campaign is offering to pay people $12 an hour to knock on doors, and the state GOP is offering $50 and $100 gas cards to people who make enough calls or knock on enough doors.
Speaking of Crist, most of you have heard by now that he raised a lot of eyebrows by opting out of a McCain football rally the other day to go to Disney World. After all the ruckus that caused, you would have expected McCain's former BFF to backtrack. But yesterday he still could muster nothing more than tepid support for McCain:
"My first and foremost responsibility is to the people of Florida, and I understand that very, very well. When I have time to help out my friend, I'm eager and anxious to do so," said Crist.
That will get the troops fired up.
Another thing that might be helping Obama here in Florida is The Great Schlep. Yesterday CNN did a lovely story on this grassroots movement, following a young Schlepper from LA to visit his grandparents in Florida to convince them to vote for Obama.
But don't pop the champagne just yet. The Times reports that Republicans are leading Democrats in absentee ballots in Florida. To date, Democrats have requested 573,388 ballots (35%), independents 254,789 (16%), and Republicans 792,942 (49%). Although that's not necessarily a bad sign for us.
At this point in 2006, Democrats say, more than 56 percent of absentee ballots had gone to Republicans, 28 percent to Democrats, and 15 percent to independents. So what two years ago was a 28 percent GOP advantage on absentee ballots has been cut in half this year.
Still, these figures show that this isn't going to be a cakewalk. Republicans can get downright nasty when they're boxed into a corner. And right on cue, the anxious Republicans in Florida are complaining about voter fraud. The culprits? Immigrants and felons.
"We are not taking anything for granted. Florida is ready," an upbeat Secretary of State Kurt Browning told Gov. Charlie Crist and the Cabinet on Tuesday.
His message was quickly undercut by questions of possible voter fraud raised by two Republicans, Attorney General Bill McCollum and Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson, based largely on media reports.
Bronson said the "biggest disenfranchisement" would be that noncitizens or criminals cast ballots. McCollum raised what he called the "ACORN question," whether the nonprofit group aligned with Democrats was fraudulently registering voters.
(I love how the GOPers are basing their serious voter fraud charges "largely on media reports," which are themselves based on nothing but baseless accusations by Republicans.)
But in all seriousness, I must say that I'm a bit taken aback by McCain's lack of energy and commitment to Florida right now, given that the state is much more critical to his victory than to Obama's. Given all the current polling data, there are plenty of reasonable calculations in which Obama can win the necessary EVs without taking Florida, but few if any in which McCain can win without taking Florida.
Part of the challenge for McCain in Florida is the overall electoral map. He is having to spend time and money fending off Obama in traditionally solid Republican states like Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado, along with Florida. By contrast, Obama has far more plausible paths to winning 270 electoral votes, with or without Florida.
"I think he's going to pull it off in the end, I really do," said U.S. Rep. Ric Keller, R-Orlando, who faces his own tough re-election challenge. "I think he's going to win Florida and Ohio. The question is, is that enough?"
By the way, early voting in Florida starts next Monday, October 20. Please help be with GOTV here in Florida starting next week. It's time to turn Florida blue again.