A couple of months ago some people started to worry about McCain spending more on ads than Obama. I thought it was a part of Obamas strategy, spending money on the ground game first and then increasing ad spending as the election got closer. This strategy was similar to the one used in the primary, forcing Hillary to spend all her money to defend herself, I think something similar is happening now.
If we look at the "money game", Obama had $77 mill on hand at the end of August, the number for July was 65.8. He raised $66 mill in August, which means he spent close to 55 mill in august. Obama spent $32 mill on ads in August, which basically means he spent close to $23 mill on other cost. If that number has increased to 30 mill for September and October, it means his 77 on hand will cover that cost in addition to $15 mill on ads. That means Obama will have 15 mill + whatever he raise in September and October to spend on ads. We know that September was a record month and October will probably be just as good as August or better. Obama spending more than 30 mill last week is a very good sign regarding the fundraising number in September. Obama using 32 mill on ads last week could indicate a fundraising number closer to 100 mill than 50 mill in September...
McCain can only spend 84 mill after the convention. Thats a little over 40 mill pr month. He used a little over 40 mill in August, 23 mill on ads and 18 on other cost. It is very likely that his "other cost" is at least as high or higher because of Palin etc. So lets say 20 mill on other cost, that means he must use almost HALF of his available cash on "other" costs. I don`t know if there is any way RNC could sneak in some help there, but lets say McCain must spend half. If what WP is saying, McCain spent 10 mill on ads last week, thats a problem for McCain, because it is 1/8 of all his available cash and it could easily be 1/4 of what he can spend on ads. Yes, he gets help from RNC, but not as much as many think. The RNC could easily focus on other races, because that could be more important long-term.
I don`t know how much McCain spent in September, but I think it is very likely that he has close to 30 mill on hand or less at the moment, that probably means he is more likely to REDUCE spending on ads than to increase it. Thats why we will see stunts where they make "fake" ads where they only try to get free airtime on cable-news.
McCain will get help from the RNC, but I doubt it will be all that much. McCain has less flexibility when it comes to making new ads fast etc.
I think we clearly can see signs of McCains money problems when we look at the spending and it also shows us why McCain was forced out of MI, he just didn`t have the money. I think the problem gets even worse, because McCain is spending a lot of money in states where it doesn`t look like he is even close.
McCain is gambling on a win in PA, almost a quarter of his cash is spent there, but Obama has a lead close to 15 points in most polls. He is spending 0,5 mill in IA, a state where Obama has been ahead in EVERY single poll... He is spending a similar amount in WI, a state where McCain had a small lead back in May, but has trailed in EVERY poll since then.
McCain is not spending in IN, MI, MT and he is spending very little in FL,NM and NV compared to Obama. RNC is spending a bit in IN,OH, NC for McCain and in ME (targeting NH). But the spending in NC could easily be to defend Dole...
Obamas strategy is working perfectly, McCain is forced to choose states to compete in and he is choosing bad, VERY BAD. Obama is outspending McCain heavily in FL, VA, MT, MO and IN, McCain can`t afford to lose even 1 of those states, spending all his money in WI, NH, WI and PA is plain stupid and I think it will contribute to an Obama-landslide.
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