My hobbies are blogging, spiders, and working for Democratic candidates.
But my profession? I, along with my brother thereisnospoon, am a partner in The Pollux Group, a research firm we founded specializing in focus groups, web usability testing, and other qualitative services.
I live in Los Angeles County, which you would probably think of as one of the bluest parts of the country, and all in all, you would be right. But that's not the full story. Los Angeles County is a big place, and has plenty of outlying areas that are red territory--places like Pomona or the Antelope Valley (where we're catching up in party registration, but not quite there).
And a lot of these areas are actually represented in both Congress and the State Legislature by Republicans.
The Los Angeles County Democratic Party--whose chairman Eric Bauman is a fine candidate for the California Democratic Party chair--commissioned our firm to conduct focus groups in one of these outlying areas among the "Reagan Democrat" group kos mentioned in his frontpage post earlier today.
The results? some pretty surprising stuff.
These groups were moderated by David Atkins (thereisnospoon). What follows is a basic summary of the presentation of the findings I gave to the LA County Democratic Central Committee Meeting yesterday.
First of all, who were we talking to? In kos' post, it was broken down something like this:
Reagan Dems and Independents. Call them blue-collar plus. Slightly more Target than Walmart.
That's exactly what we were getting at in our research. Some registered Democrats, some Independents. All of whom had voted for Republican Governor Schwarzenegger in 2006. Some of whom had supported Bush in 2000 and 2004.
There are three main findings to note here:
The first one may seem self-obvious: It's all about the economy right now. That may seem like a no-brainer, but there are larger ramifications here. People are worried about losing their social security. These swing voters are very worried about their healthcare situation. Stagnating wages vs. the cost of education. Every single economic concern is very high on the minds of these voters right now.
Iraq also isn't all that important. The only reason Iraq matters right now is in the economic context: These voters don't like the fact that we're spending $10 billion a month there as opposed to spending it at home.
You wanna know what doesn't matter? Social issues. Abortion? Gay marriage? Forget it. These voters aren't concerned about any of this stuff--even people who might consider themselves pro-life aren't rating it as an important issue. Nobody we talked to in these groups rated either abortion or gay marriage as one of their top three priorities. The standard Republican scare tactics just won't work any more. The Republicans might be able to motivate the Sarah Palin base with this type of thing, but it's just turning off the Reagan Dems who feel that this type of focus means that they're completely out of touch with what these voters care about right now.
Let's talk Party ID. The bottom line is that the Republican brand is in the toilet. You show these people a picture of Bush and ask for their gut reactions? They'd spit on it if you let them. The "give me your gut reaction" phrase elicits responses you thought you'd only hear Kucinich supporters issue. It's fascinating.
What about the Democrats? Well, they're viewed as much more in touch with the middle class, but still not all the way there. Mildly positive.
The weird thing is that Republicans are still viewed as in charge. The fact that Democrats control the Congress--and, with specific reference to California, the state legislature--is irrelevant, because the Republican party is still perceived as being in charge of the government. Which makes it possible for our downballot candidates to run against the Republicans regardless of who's nominally in charge.
On to messaging: We're very fortunate to have a Presidential nominee in Barack Obama who is really pushing the "change" message--because that's what appeals to many of these voters, especially women voters. Just as important as any specific issue messaging on the economy or on healthcare, the idea of change is effective--even for Congressional candidates who are running to add to our majority in Congress.
Also interesting is that typical Republican scaremongering doesn't work. Lower taxes is still a reasonably effective message given the bad economic times, but the standard anti-government messaging of the Republican Party no longer works. People want government involved in their economy; in their healthcare; in their social security.
The era of the Reagan Democrat is over because the era of Ronald Reagan is over. "I'm from the government and I'm here to help" are no longer the scariest words in the English language. For these voters--the voters both sides need to win over--they're some of the most welcome words they can hear. And the Republican ideologues who have drunk their own kool-aid on the idea that this is a conservative, anti-government country are going to be slaughtered if it's what they've convinced themselves that this demographic really wants.
So what's the bottom line? Here's the recap:
It's the economy, stupid.
Republicans are responsible.
And it's time for a change.