This is my first crack at rating the races this election cycle because life has been busy and because I have been less dedicated than I'd like. Where we are is pretty breathtaking. The Dems are on track to meet or even surpass their 30-seat gain from the 2006 election cycle. Three seats have already been won in special elections, although at least two of these are in danger of reverting heading into November.
The last time a party gained 25 or more seats in two consecutive cycles was in 1930 and 1932, when FDR's coattails allowed the Democrats to pile up a 99-seat gain on top of a 51-seat gain the midterm before. After the dust cleared 76 years ago, the Dems had a 313-117-5 advantage. Those are gaudy numbers which will not be repeated, but the 32-seat gain necessary to push the House to 268-167 is certainly within the realm of possibility. Indeed, there are upwards of 30 GOP-held seats that the Dems have at least an even-money chance of winning.
What will hold down the gains, however, is the likelihood that the party will lose a handful of seats--something it did not do in 2006. There are three seats in particular that are in danger: Tim Mahoney's FL-16 is probably gone, and Nick Lampson in TX-22 and Don Cazayoux in LA-06 have stiff challenges. And Paul Kanjorski could well let the Dem-leaning PA-11 slip away.
At the end of the day, though, the gains will dwarf any losses. The following are my rankings based on likelihood of takeover. The point total and net rating quoted are based on composites of the National Journal rankings and the ratings of CQ Politics, the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Report, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. The PVI is a measure of a district's general partisan leaning developed by Charlie Cook. I list PVI as generic expected Dem percentage of the two party vote, so a district Cook rates as D+3 will be a 53 (i.e. 3 points above the 50-50 mean. An R+10 is a 40.
I provided my commentary for the top 40 GOP-held races and the top 10 Dem-held seats due to time and space constraints. I am happy to share thoughts on any of the remaining seats. For seats 41-72 in the list of GOP seats, I noted which challengers are part of the DCCC's Red to Blue Program. Here are the rankings:
Republican Seats
1. NY-13 (R-Open (Fossella)): Likely Switch (330) M.McMahon (D) vs. B.Straniere (R). District PVI: 51. This Staten Island seat is as close to a gimmee as it gets. Incumbent Vito Fossella dropped out after revelations of a secret family following a drunk driving arrest and the GOP has been divided ever since. NYC Councilman McMahon is strong; former state Rep. Straniere is disliked.
2. NY-25 (R-Open (Walsh)): Likely Switch (299) D.Maffei (D) vs. D.Sweetland (R). District PVI: 53. The Syracuse-based district is a net-Dem district and should be Maffei’s in a Presidential year. Maffei came within 2% in 2006 and caused incumbent Jim Walsh to retire. The race is his.
3. AK-AL (R-Young): Lean Switch (267) E.Berkowitz (D) vs. D.Young* (R). District PVI: 36. The unpopular Young’s narrow primary win likely swings the seat to the Dems as it has been an article of faith that Young would lose at some point in 2008. Alaskans seem poised to clean house in their Congressional delegation despite the presence of their mendacious excuse for a governor at the top of the ticket. Berkowitz, the former state House Dem leader is a strong candidate. An Ivan Moore poll released on 10/9 puts Berkowitz up 51-42.
4. VA-11 (R-Open (Davis)): Lean Switch (264) G.Connolly (D) vs. K.Fimian (R). District PVI: 49. This northern Virginia district has been trending hard Dem for a few years now. In 2007, part of it ousted Rep. Tom Davis’ wife Jeannemarie Devolites from the state Senate, and with Davis quitting, the district is more likely than not to send county executive Gerry Connolly to Washington despite self-funder Keith Fimian’s millions.
5. AZ-01 (R-Open (Renzi)): Lean Switch (260) A.Kirkpatrick (D) vs. S.Hay (R). District PVI: 48. This sprawling southeast Arizona district was drawn to be competitive. With scandal-plagued incumbent Renzi leaving, the Dems have an opening. State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick fits the district well and has the advantage over former state Transportation official Sydney Hay.
6. IL-11 (R-Open (Weller)): Lean Switch (255) D.Halvorson (D) vs. M.Ozinga (R). District PVI: 49. State Senate leader Debbie Halvorson has been the favorite from day 1 in this race to succeed Jerry Weller in this southwest suburban Chicago district. Businessman Ozinga has kept it close, but Halvorson should still prevail, especially with Obama heading the ticket. Two September partisan polls average out to Halvorson 41, Ozinga 36 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) 9/17-18, Anzalone-Liszt (D) 9/14-16)
7. OH-16 (R-Open (Regula)): Tossup (207) J.Boccieri (D) vs. K.Schuring (R). District PVI: 46. This Canton-based seat has sent Ralph Regula (R) to Congress for 36 years, but it’s been a very hard fought battle between two state Senators to succeed him. Dem John Boccieri has run an exceptional race. To the surprise of some, he has outperformed not only opponent Kirk Schuring (R), but also Mary Jo Kilroy (D), who was expected to have an easier time winning the Columbus-based 15th district. A composite of a 10/7 R2000 and a 9/23 SurveyUSA poll has Boccieri up 48-39.
8. CO-04 (R-Musgrave): Tossup (206) B.Markey (D) vs. M.Musgrave* (R). District PVI: 41. One-issue homophobe Musgrave Musgrave (R) has always underperformed in this suburban/rural eastern Colorado district. Unlike her previous opponents, state Rep. Betsy Markey (D) has the resources to go toe to toe with Musgrave, and has consistently led the incumbent in polling. Unfortunately, the district remains very red. A Grove Insights (D) 9/8-10 and a SurveyUSA 8/22-24 poll average to a 49-41 Markey lead.
9. NJ-03 (R-Open (Saxton)): Tossup (213) J.Adler (D) vs. C.Myers (R). District PVI: 53. This south-central Jersey district was thought to be tailor-made for state Sen. Jon Adler to pick up when Rep. Saxton announced his retirement. Adler is well known and already represents a chunk of the district. But Medford councilman and defense contractor Chris Myers has kept it close. The smart money is still on an Adler win, especially given how New Jersey polling works. A composite from a 10/7 Monmouth U poll and a 9/28 Zogby poll is Myers 40, Adler 39.
10. NJ-07 (R-Open (Ferguson)): Tossup (201) L.Stender (D) vs. L.Lance (R). District PVI: 49. This is an evenly split district that the Republicans have held for a long time. Bob Franks had it and left to run for Senate in 2000. Ferguson then won it narrowly and held it tenuously for 4 terms, winning only 51-49 in 2006. His 2006 opponent, state Assemb. Linda Stender (D) is back and is in an extremely close race with GOP state Sen. leader Leonard Lance. An October 5 Monmouth University poll has Lance leading 43-39.
11. NM-01 (R-Open (Wilson)): Tossup (197) M.Heinrich (D) vs. D.White (R). District PVI: 52. This Albuquerque-based district is one of those districts the Dems are often grumbling about losing. It went for both Gore and Kerry but has not elected a Dem Congressman in over a quarter century. The execrable Heather Wilson of the Janet Jackson nipple freakout has won a string of narrow victories but is now out, having lost the Senate primary to fellow Rep. Steve Pearce. Albuquerque councilman Martin Heinrich has a slight leg up on county sheriff Darren White thanks to the national tide. A 10/7 Albuquerque Journal poll has Heinrich up 43-41.
12. OH-15 (R-Open (Pryce)): Tossup (195) M.Kilroy (D) vs. S.Stivers (R). District PVI: 49. County commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy was one of the narrowest losers in 2006, to longtime incumbent Deborah Pryce in this Columbus-based district. When Pryce announced her retirement, the GOP had a tough time finding a candidate, settling on state Sen. Steve Stivers, who initially turned down the race but reconsidered. This will be close, but Kilroy has two big advantages: the fact that Stivers was once a bank lobbyist, and expected increased turnout from Ohio State students coming out to vote for Obama. A 9/21 SurveyUSA poll put Kilroy up 47-42.
13. MN-03 (R-Open (Ramstad)): Tossup (196) A.Madia (D) vs. E.Paulsen (R). District PVI: 49. This is your prototypical suburban swing district populated with [insert your trite catchphrase here]. Moderate GOPer Jim Ramstad is retiring, setting up a fairly stark ideological contest between progressive attorney and Iraq vet Ashwin Madia and conservative state Rep. Erik Paulsen. This one has gotten nasty of late with Paulsen releasing racially tinged attack ads. A 10/8 SUSA poll has Madia leading 46-43.
14. NC-08 (R-Hayes): Tossup (159) L.Kissell (D) vs. R.Hayes* (R). District PVI: 47. This is a rematch of one of those woulda, coulda races. In 2006, Larry Kissell was a teacher who decided to take on multimillionaire Rep. Robin Hayes. Kissell lacked name recognition or cash, but ran one of the best races of the cycle and nearly upset Hayes with little support, losing by less than 1,000 votes. The textile industry is based in the district, and Hayes has taken on water for his free trade votes. This time, an October 6 SUSA poll had Kissell beating the incumbent 49-41.
15. MI-07 (R): Tossup (173) M.Schauer (D) vs. T.Walberg* (R). District PVI: 48. Tim Walberg is a combative extreme Republican holding a moderate Republican district. He ousted moderate GOP Rep. Joe Schwarz in the 2006 primary and squeaked by an underfunded Dem in the general. Now, he faces a stiff challenge from state Sen. Mark Schauer (D). A composite of a D and an R partisan poll from mid-September puts Walberg up 43-41. McCain’s abandonment of the state cannot bode well for Walberg—his poll, which had him up 9 also had McCain up 15 in the district.
16. NV-03 (R-Porter): Tossup (195) D.Titus (D) vs. J.Porter* (R). District PVI: 51. This district, which takes in the Clark County Las Vegas suburbs but little of the city, was drawn to be competitive. Jon Porter (R) beat a damaged Dem in 2002, the district’s first election, and had another weak opponent in 2004 before squeaking by Sen. Harry Reid’s press secretary, Tessa Hafen, 51-49 in 2006. Dems got a heavyweight recruit in state Sen. Leader and 2006 Gov. nominee Dina Titus in 2008. Partisan polls from Anzalone Liszt (D) (9/21-24) and Public Opinion Strategies (R) (9/23-24) average to a 43-38 Porter lead.
17. FL-24 (R-Feeney): Tossup (161) S.Kozmas (D) vs. T.Feeney* (R). District PVI: 47. Tom Feeney is probably the Congressman closest to Jack Abramoff still in the House. He underperformed against a second tier opponent in this southern Florida swing district in 2006. Now he has a tough challenge from former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. A mid September Dem poll had Feeney ahead by a single point, 43-42.
18. CT-04 (R-Shays): Tossup (177) J.Himes (D) vs. C.Shays* (R). District PVI: 55. Chris Shays was the lone New England House GOPer to survive 2006, and he now faces off against well-financed challenger Jim Himes in this southwest Connecticut district—one that is more suburban New York City than truly New England. A composite of a Dineen & Assoc. poll and a Feldman Group (D) poll from September reveals a 49-38 lead for Shays.
19. WA-08 (R-Reichert): Tossup (175) D.Burner (D) vs. D.Reichert* (R). District PVI: 52. This is a rematch of a 52-48 race from 2006. Darcy Burner is a former Microsoft exec and a netroots favorite. Reichert is a former county sheriff still trading on the goodwill he gained from his office catching the Green River serial killer. The district is an evenly divided suburban Seattle district that sent GOPer Jennifer Dunn to Congress for years. This race is looking much like 2006, with Burner just behind. An October 10 R2000 poll put Reichert up 49-41.
20. LA-04 (R-Open (McCrery)): Tossup (170) P.Carmouche/ W.Banks (D) vs. C.Gorman/ J.Fleming (R). District PVI: 43. Following Hurricane Gustav, the primaries here were postponed to October 4. Neither party had a candidate hit 50% of the primary vote, so on Election Day in November, both parties will have run-off primaries, with the general election not to take place until December 6. The favorite for the Dems is conservative DA Paul Carmouche. It was something of a surprise that he did not get 50% on 10/4. Nonetheless, he should advance to face either businessman Chris Gorman or coroner John Fleming.
21. MI-09 (R-Knollenberg): Tossup (159) G.Peters (D) vs. J.Knollenberg* (R). District PVI: 50. Joe Knollenberg is a longtime incumbent in this suburban Detroit district. Trouble for him is that the district has been trending blue, and Knollenberg faced a tough opponent for the first time in 2006. He has another this year, former state Lottery Director Gary Peters. This race will be close. A 10/6 Mitchell Research poll has the race tied 43-43.
22. NY-29 (R-Kuhl): Lean Hold (143) E.Massa (D) vs. R.Kuhl* (R). District PVI: 45. Yet another rematch of a narrow GOP victory. Former naval officer Eric Massa lost 52-48 last time, but appears to have a better shot in 2008 at this western New York district centered on Corning. Two October polls, one from SUSA and one from R2000 put Massa up. The composite is 50-43.
23. NM-02 (R-Open (Pearce)): Lean Hold (143) H.Teague (D) vs. E.Tinsley (R). District PVI: 44. The most GOP of the three New Mexico districts is nonetheless competitive as an open seat this year. After all three sitting House members ran for the open Senate seat this year, the Dems have an opportunity to sweep the delegation. To do so, they must win this southern district which contains "Little Texas." Former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague appears to fit the district, but has a tough race against businessman Ed Tinsley. An October 3 R2000 poll has Teague up 47-43.
24. PA-03 (R-English): Tossup/Lean Hold (150) K.Dahlkemper (D) vs. P.English* (R). District PVI: 48. English picked up this northwest Pennsylvania swing district in the GOP year in 1994 and hasn’t really been challenged since. Until now. Kathy Dahlkemper, the director of the Lake Erie Arboretum is giving English a tough fight. An October 1 SUSA poll had Dahlkemper up 49-45.
25. FL-21 (R-Lincoln Diaz-Balart): Tossup/Lean Hold (150) R.Martinez (D) vs. L.Diaz-Balart* (R). District PVI: 44. Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez is the most promising of three Dem challengers to the three Cuban-American Miami-area Republicans in Congress—the only Latino House GOPers. An October 6 Carlos McDonald poll put incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart up 48-43.
26. AL-02 (R-Open (Everett)): Tossup (157) B.Bright (D) vs. J.Love (R). District PVI: 37. This is a bright red district, but Dems caught one break when popular Montgomery mayor Bobby Bright announced he was running as a Dem. They caught another when he ran a very strong campaign. Still, his opponent, state Rep. Jay Love, is no slouch and the district is R+13. On the other hand, the district is similar to the one won by Rep. Travis Childers (D-MS) earlier this year. A 9/2 SUSA poll had Love up 17, 56-39.
27. OH-01 (R-Chabot): Lean Hold (140) S.Driehaus (D) vs. S.Chabot* (R). District PVI: 49. Steve Chabot, like English, has been skulking around Congress since 1994. His district is the bulk of the city of Cincinnati plus some conservative northern suburbs added to shore him up in 2002. Chabot is no stranger to close races. He beat a strong opponent in 2006, 53-47. Now, he faces Ohio House Dem leader Steve Driehaus (D) in another barnburner. An October 7 R2000 poll put Driehaus ahead 46-44.
28. IL-10 (R-Kirk): Lean Hold (123) D.Seals (D) vs. M.Kirk* (R). District PVI: 54. Another rematch in this Dem-leaning suburban district north of Chicago between GOP Rep. Kirk, who desperately tries to put on the moderate mask at election time. Attorney Dan Seals (D) was the first solid challenger Kirk had since his election in 2000. Kirk ended up winning that race 53-47. Seals never stopped running and it should be even closer this time. Two October polls, one by R2000 and one by SUSA, average to a 45-44 lead for Seals.
29. NY-26 (R-Open (Reynolds)): Lean Hold (126) A.Kryzan (D) vs. C.Lee (R). District PVI: 47. The Democratic party in this suburban Buffalo district has finally gotten past the Jack Davis era. Davis, who lost in 2004 and 2006 and got the millionaire’s amendment overturned by the Supreme Court this year, lost a three-way primary to attorney Alice Kryzan (D). Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), who was nearly ousted as NRCC chairman in ’06, has called it a career. Reynolds is a fortunate man than Davis blew it—Davis led Reynolds by 15 points last October after Reynolds’ role in the Mark Foley scandal came to light. This time, the GOPer is businessman Chris Lee, who is a slight favorite here. A September 26 SUSA poll put Lee up 48-37.
30. FL-08 (R-Keller): Lean Hold (135) A.Grayson (D) vs. R.Keller* (R). District PVI: 47. Keller is in trouble this year in his Orlando-based district. He barely survived (53-47) a primary challenge from the right after underperforming in 2006. His opponent, attorney Alan Grayson (D), is no top tier challenger but has a shot. A composite of a D and an R poll from September put Keller up 48-35.
31. MO-06 (R-Graves): Lean Hold (120) K.Barnes (D) vs. S.Graves* (R). District PVI: 45. This suburban Kansas City district has been in GOP hands since Graves won it in 2000. It has drifted more into the Republican column since then, but Dems have a star challenger in former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes. The race has been a nasty one. A September 19 SUSA poll put Graves up 51-42.
32. FL-25 (R-Mario Diaz-Balart): Lean Hold (105) J.Garcia (D) vs. M.Diaz-Balart* (R). District PVI: 46. The second of the Miami-area districts being targeted by the Dems. Mario Diaz-Balart is Lincoln’s brother and joined him in Congress after he and Tom Feeney drew districts from themselves in the Florida legislature in 2002. His opponent is Miami-Dade County Dem chair Joe Garcia. This race has moved up the charts as polling has showed it to be close. A September 29 R2000 poll had Diaz-Balart leading 45-41.
33. CA-04 (R): Likely Hold (75) C.Brown (D) vs. T.McClintock (R). District PVI: 39. A tough district, but Dem Charlie Brown fits it well and almost took it from scandal-damaged incumbent John Doolittle in 2006. Now, he faces carpetbagging wingnut grandstander Tom McClintock. A September 25 R2000 poll put Brown ahead 46-41. Brown also may be the biggest beneficiary of a potential early call for Obama, as GOPers planning to vote in the evening may stay home. The only reason this race isn’t higher is the nature of the district.
34. OH-02 (R): Lean Hold (105) V.Wulsin (D) vs. J.Schmidt* (R). District PVI: 37. This is yet another rematch of a close 2006 race. The district is a very conservative suburban/exurban swath of southwestern Ohio. But Dems have come achingly close of late, with Paul Hackett losing a special election 52-48 and then Dr. Victoria Wulsin losing 50-49 in the 2006 general. This has a lot to do with GOP incumbent Jean Schmidt (R), who like Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado, has never settled in here. The district’s Republicans tolerate her and the Dems hate her. Still, the conventional wisdom is that Wulsin’s opportunity may have come and gone. An October 4 R2000 poll put Schmidt up 46-39.
35. VA-02 (R-Drake): Lean Hold (120) G.Nye (D) vs. T.Drake* (R). District PVI: 44. Drake won this military-heavy southeastern Virginia district 51-49 in 2006. Businessman Glenn Nye (D) hopes that Obama and Mark Warner coattails will put him over the top this time around. Nye, though, has fewer connections and name recognition than had 2006 nominee Phil Kellam. An October 11 R2000 poll put Drake ahead 51-37.
36. MO-09 (R-Open (Hulshof)): Lean Hold (105) J.Baker (D) vs. B.Leutkemeyer (R). District PVI: 43. This rural district has seemed off limits for the Dems after Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) ousted conservative Dem Harold Volkmer in 1996. But Hulshof is now running a quixotic bid for Governor, opening the door for the Dems. They have a solid nominee in state Rep. Judy Baker, who faces former state Rep. and state official Blaine Leutkemeyer (R). A September 20 R2000 poll put Leutkemeyer ahead 49-40.
36. MD-01 (R-Open (Gilchrest)): Lean/Likely Hold (90) F.Kratovil (D) vs. A.Harris (R). District PVI: 40. This is a very interesting race. Moderate GOPer Wayne Gilchrest had a safe seat. But hard right state Sen. Andy Harris (R) beat Gilchrest in the primary. Meanwhile, Dems nominated a solid contender for the district, Queen Anne County DA Frank Kratovil. Kratovil has been endorsed by Gilchrest and has a shot here. A recent Kratovil internal poll actually had him up 36-33.
37. KY-02 (R-Open (Lewis)): Lean/ Likely Hold (90) D.Boswell (D) vs. B.Guthrie (R). District PVI: 37. Lewis’ victory in this southwestern KY district in a 1993 special election was the canary in the coal mine that was the 1994 GOP landslide. Now, after giving Lewis his first race since in 2006 (Lewis won 53-47), the Dems have a chance to get the seat back. The race pits two state Senators, David Boswell (D) and Brett Guthrie (R) against one another. A 9/25 SUSA poll put Guthrie ahead 49-43.
38. WY-AL (R-Open (Cubin)): Likely Hold (60) G.Trauner (D) vs. C.Lummis (R). District PVI: 31. This is another one where the professional race raters underrate the contest because the terrain is so unfavorable for Dems. It is true that no Democrat has won a federal race in Wyoming in over 30 years, but Gary Trauner came within 900 votes of doing so in 2006 and has an excellent shot of winning now that the race is an open seat. Former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis (R) was passed over for appointment to the vacant Senate seat last year, and has made plenty of enemies both within her party and without. A September 26 R2000 poll had the candidates tied, 42-42.
39. FL-13 (R-Buchanan): Lean/Likely Hold (90) C.Jennings (D) vs. V.Buchanan* (R). District PVI: 46. This race was written off by the GOP in 2006, but a late surge and a voting machine glitch allowed Vern Buchanan (R) to squeak by Christine Jennings (D). Following a challenge to the result, Jennings never stopped campaigning for the rematch. Buchanan, though, has solidified his position in this lean-GOP district which was created for Katherine Harris in 2002 as payment for services rendered. A composite of a 10/2 SUSA poll and a 9/28 R2000 poll puts Buchanan up 46-32.
40. ID-01 (R-Sali): Lean/Likely Hold (90) W.Minnick (D) vs. B.Sali* (R). District PVI: 31. Anyone Republican but Bill Sali (excepting perhaps Marilyn Musgrave and Jean Schmidt) would be able to hold this southern R+19 Idaho seat for life. Sali, however, is in a hard-fought campaign with businessman Walt Minnick (D), the 1996 Dem nominee for the Senate. Sali’s lack of intellect and combative relationship with most everyone in Idaho politics not wholly owned by the Club for Growth gives Minnick an opening. A September 19 R2000 poll put Sali ahead 46-35.
41. NV-02 (R-Heller): Lean/Likely Hold (90) J.Derby (D) vs. D.Heller* (R). District PVI: 42. Polling: Dean Heller (R) 50, Jill Derby (D) 39 (composite of 10/13 Mason-Dixon and 10/8 R2000). Derby is on the DCCC Red to Blue (R2B) list.
42. AZ-03 (R-Shadegg): Likely Hold (45) B.Lord (D) vs. J.Shadegg* (R). District PVI: 44. Polling: John Shadegg (R) 48, Bob Lord (D) 39 (10/11 R2000). Lord is on the R2B list.
43. NE-02 (R-Terry): Likely Hold (45) J.Esch (D) vs. L.Terry* (R). District PVI: 41. Polling: Lee Terry (R) 49, Jim Esch (D) 39. Esch is on the R2B list.
44. TX-07 (R-Culberson): Likely Hold (45) M.Skelly (D) vs. J.Culberson* (R). District PVI: 34. Polling: John Culberson (R) 48, Michael Skelly (D) 40 (R2000 10/9). Skelly is on the R2B list.
45. TX-10 (R-McCaul): Likely Hold (45) L.Doherty (D) vs. M.McCaul* (R). District PVI: 37. Polling: Mike McCaul (R) 43, Larry Joe Doherty (D) 38 (9/30 internal Doherty poll). Doherty is on the R2B list.
46. WV-02 (R-Capito): Likely Hold (75) A.Barth (D) vs. S.Capito* (R). District PVI: 45. Polling: Shelley Moore Capito (R) 53, Anne Barth (D) 39 (10/11 R2000). Barth is on the R2B list.
47. PA-06 (R-Gerlach): Likely Hold (60) B.Roggio (D) vs. J.Gerlach* (R). District PVI: 52. No polls.
48. MN-06 (R-Bachmann): Likely Hold (45) E.Tinklenberg (D) vs. M.Bachmann* (R). District PVI: 45. No polling. Elwyn Tinklenberg is on the R2B list.
49. NJ-05 (R-Garrett): Likely Hold (45) D.Shulman (D) vs. S.Garrett* (R). District PVI: 46. Polling: Scott Garrett (R) 49, Dennis Shulman (D) 34 (9/20 R2000). Shulman is on the R2B list.
50. IN-03 (R-Souder): Likely/Safe Hold (30) M.Montagano (D) vs. M.Souder* (R). District PVI: 34. Polling: Mark Souder (R) 44, Mike Montagano (D) 39 (10/7 internal Montagano poll). Montagano is on the R2B list.
51. VA-05 (R-Goode): Likely Hold (45) T.Perriello (D) vs. V.Goode* (R). District PVI: 44. Polling: Virgil Goode (R) 55, Tom Perriello (D) 42 (10/8 SUSA). Perriello is on the R2B list.
52. MN-02 (R-Kline): Likely/Safe Hold (30) S.Sarvi (D) vs. J.Kline* (R). District PVI: 47. No polls.
53. VA-10 (R-Wolf): Likely/Safe Hold (30) J.Feder (D) vs. F.Wolf* (R). District PVI: 45. No polls. Feder is on the R2B list.
54. PA-15 (R-Dent): Likely Hold (45) S.Bennett (D) vs. C.Dent* (R). District PVI: 52. No polls. Bennett is on the R2B list.
55. OH-07 (R-Open (Hobson)): Likely/Safe Hold (30) S.Neuhardt (D) vs. S.Austria (R). District PVI: 44. Polling: Steve Austria (R) 56, Sharen Neuhardt (D) 32 (10/6 internal Austria poll).
56. IA-04 (R-Latham): Safe Hold (15) B.Greenwald (D) vs. T.Latham* (R). District PVI: 50. No polls. Greenwald is on the R2B list.
57. AL-03 (R-Rogers): Safe Hold (0) J.Segall (D) vs. M.Rogers* (R). District PVI: 46. Polling: Mike Rogers (R) 45, Josh Segall (D) 36 (10/1 Capital Research). Segall is on the R2B list.
58. LA-07 (R-Boustany): Likely/Safe Hold (30) D.Cravins (D) vs. C.Boustany* (R). District PVI: 43. No polls. Cravins is on the R2B list.
59. FL-18 (R-Ros-Lehtinen): Safe Hold (0) A.Taddeo (D) vs. I.Ros-Lehtinen* (R). District PVI: 46. Polling: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen* (R) 50, Annette Taddeo (D) 35 (composite of 10/1 Carlos McDonald and 9/25 R2000). Taddeo is on the R2B list.
60. CA-50 (R-Bilbray): Safe Hold (15) N.Leibham (D) vs. B.Bilbray* (R). District PVI: 45. No polls. Nick Leibham is on the R2B list.
61. CA-03 (R-Lungren): Safe Hold (0) B.Durston (D) vs. D.Lungren* (R). District PVI: 43. Polling: Dan Lungren (R) 42, Bill Durston (D) 27 (composite of 2 R polls and 1 D poll conducted between 10/4 and 10/9).
62. SC-01 (R-Brown): Safe Hold (0) L.Ketner (D) vs. H.Brown* (R). District PVI: 40. No polls. Linda Ketner is on the R2B list.
63. NC-10 (R): Safe Hold (15) D.Johnson (D) vs. P.McHenry* (R). District PVI: 35. Polling: Patrick McHenry (R) 54, Dan Johnson (D) 21 (10/8 internal McHenry poll). Johnson is on the R2B list.
64. IL-06 (R-Roskam): Likely Hold (45) J.Morgenthaler (D) vs. P.Roskam* (R). District PVI: 47. No polls.
65. IL-18 (R-Open (LaHood)): Likely/Safe Hold (30) C.Callahan (D) vs. A.Schock (R). District PVI: 45. No polls.
66. PA-18 (R-Murphy): Likely/Safe Hold (30) S.O'Donnell (D) vs. T.Murphy* (R). District PVI: 48. No polls.
67. OH-14 (R-LaTourette): Safe Hold (15) B.O'Neill (D) vs. S.LaTourette* (R). District PVI: 48. No polls.
68. IL-13 (R-Biggert): Safe Hold (15) S.Harper (D) vs. J.Biggert* (R). District PVI: 45. No polls.
69. LA-01 (R-Scalise): Safe Hold (0) J.Harlan (D) vs. S.Scalise* (R). District PVI: 32. Polling: Steve Scalise (R) 42, Jim Harlan 31 (9/21 internal Harlan poll). Harlan is on the R2B list.
70. CA-46 (R-Rohrabacher): Safe Hold (0) D.Cook (D) vs. D.Rohrabacher* (R). District PVI: 44. No polls.
71. CA-26 (R-Dreier): Safe Hold (0) R.Warner (D) vs. D.Dreier* (R). District PVI: 46. No polls.
72. FL-15 (R-Open (Weldon)): Safe Hold (15) S.Blythe (D) vs. B.Posey (R). District PVI: 46. No polls.
Democratic Seats
1. FL-16 (D-Mahoney): Tossup (168) T.Mahoney* (D) vs. T.Rooney (R). District PVI: 48. This was going to be a tough race even before freshman Tim Mahoney was caught firing his mistress (whom he had hired in the first place) who dumped him upon finding out that he was cheating on her (and his wife) with others. And the exchange is on tape. Mahoney, who got into Congress because former Rep. Mark Foley, traded sexually explicit text messages with underage boys, is likely toast. The pro ratings have not caught up with the scandal and should reflect this soon. The beneficiary is businessman Tom Rooney (R), who just won a costly and hard fought GOP primary. Question: why couldn’t the Democrats go two straight cycles without losing one of their own seats? Answer: because Tim Mahoney couldn’t keep it in his pants. For what it’s worth, a GOP poll taken back on 9/8 put Mahoney ahead 48-41.
2. TX-22 (D-Lampson): Tossup (220) N.Lampson* (D) vs. P.Olson (R). District PVI: 35. Lampson won Tom DeLay’s old seat in 2006 after the indicted former Majority Leader dropped out of the race too late to be replaced on the ballot. The GOP ran a write-in campaign with an awful candidate (who also had a difficult to spell name). Unsurprisingly, Lampson won this deep-red district. Now, his awful 2006 opponent lost her primary and the GOP has an unremarkable suit, Pete Olson, taking on Lampson. My gut is that Lampson survives (as Chet Edwards did in a similar situation in ’04), but it’s gonna be close.
3. LA-06 (D-Cazayoux): Tossup (209) D.Cazayoux* (D) vs. B.Cassidy (R). District PVI: 43. Don Cazayoux was one of the three 2008 Dem special election pickups. But he won his seat northwest LA seat the most narrowly of the three and faced a badly damaged GOPer, Woody Jenkins, who had ties to David Duke. Now, he faces a generic GOPer without that baggage, state Sen. Bill Cassidy. What’s worse, Dem primary loser Michael Jackson, who is black, is running as an independent. Cazayoux is in trouble. However, a 9/17-21 Anzalone (D) poll for Cazayoux had him up 48-32, with Jackson taking 9%.
4. PA-11 (D-Kanjorski): Tossup (191) P.Kanjorski* (D) vs. L.Barletta (R). District PVI: 55. This race shouldn’t be problem, but it is. Rep. Paul Kanjorski’s district got a lot more Democratic in 2002 when Scranton and surrounding blue collar Dem Lackawanna county were added to it to shore up then-Rep. Don Sherwood’s (R) 10th district. And he beat his current opponent, Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta by over 20 points six years ago. But the polling has had Barletta, a one-note anti-immigrant hardliner, up. The latest, a 10/14 R2000 poll, has the race at 43-39. Most of the undecideds are Dems.
5. AL-05 (D-Open (Cramer)): Tossup (186) P.Griffith (D) vs. W.Parker (R). District PVI: 44. Rep. Bud Cramer (D) is one of the few remaining old school Southern Democrats in Congress. He is retiring, and this conservative Alabama district is open. That this race is at #18 speaks both to the strength of the Dem nominee, state Sen. Parker Griffith, a conservative Dem in the Cramer mold, and to the generally weak position Republicans are in everywhere. Still, thy have an active candidate in businessman Wayne Parker, and this race will be close. An August Capital poll had Griffith up 45-40.
6. KS-02 (D-Boyda): Tossup (187) N.Boyda* (D) vs. L.Jenkins (R). District PVI: 43. Rep. Nancy Boyda’s (D) victory over former Rep. Jim Ryun in this eastern Kansas district was one of the big upsets of 2006. Partially to blame were GOP redistricters, who moved the University of Kansas from Dennis Moore’s (D) 3d District into this one in an effort to weaken Moore. He’s still there and now so is Boyda. She will face a tough race from Kansas Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R), who beat Ryun in the primary. An August 19-21 SurveyUSA poll put Boyda up 50-43.
7. NH-01 (D-Shea-Porter): Tossup (178) C.Shea-Porter* (D) vs. J.Bradley (R). District PVI: 50. Things were looking a little dicey for Shea-Porter in her rematch with former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) for awhile, but she seems to have pulled ahead as Obama shot up in the state. Shea-Porter was one of the feel-good upsets of 2006, a grassroots candidate coming from nowhere to take down the Dem state House leader in the primary and then the entrenched Bradley in the general. Fun fact: Baron Hill (D-IN) was ousted in 2004 and won his rematch in 2006. The last time another ousted Rep. was successful in a rematch was North Carolina’s David Price (D) in 1996. A composite of two 10/6 polls, one from SUSA and the other from St. Anselm, puts Shea-Porter up 46-38.
8. GA-08 (D-Marshall): Lean Hold (128) J.Marshall* (D) vs. R.Goddard (R). District PVI: 42. Marshall was one of two Dem incumbents who went into Election Night 2006 with a real possibility of losing. The Georgia GOP legislature screwed around with his Macon-based district’s lines in a DeLay-inspired move in 2005. Marshall then fought off a former GOP Rep. 51-49. This time, he faces retired Gen. Rick Goddard (R). Marshall appears to have the upper hand, although there are no polls available.
9. PA-10 (D-Carney): Tossup/Lean Hold (150) C.Carney* (D) vs. C.Hackett (R). District PVI: 42. At one time it appeared as though Carney, who took a GOP district in northeastern Pennsylvania away from a scandal-plagued Repub incumbent in 2006, would be a top target. But the theme song for his opponent, Chris Hackett, may as well be "Slip Slidin’ Away." Palling around with a certain GOP Vice Presidential nominee has not helped Hackett’s case. Carney leads 48-33 per a 10/9 Franklin & Marshall poll.
10. WI-08 (D-Kagen): Lean Hold (128) S.Kagen* (D) vs. J.Gard (R). District PVI: 46. Polling: Steve Kagen (D) 54, John Gard (R) 43 (SUSA 10/6).
11. MS-01 (D-Childers): Lean Hold (120) T.Childers* (D) vs. G.Davis (R). District PVI: 40. Polling: Travis Childers (D) 51, Greg Davis (R) 39 (9/10 Dem poll).
12. KY-03 (D-Yarmuth): Lean Hold (120) J.Yarmuth* (D) vs. A.Northup (R). District PVI: 52. Polling: John Yarmuth (D) 53, Anne Northup (R) 45 (9/7 SUSA).
13. PA-04 (D-Altmire): Lean Hold (120) J.Altmire* (D) vs. M.Hart (R). District PVI: 47. Polling: Jason Altmire (D) 54, Melissa Hart (R) 42 (10/6 SUSA).
14. CA-11 (D-McNerney): Lean Hold (128) J.McNerney* (D) vs. D.Andal (R). District PVI: 47. No polls.
15. AZ-05 (D-Mitchell): Lean Hold (120) H.Mitchell* (D) vs. D.Schweikert (R). District PVI: 46. No polls.
16. AZ-08 (D-Giffords): Lean Hold (120) G.Giffords* (D) vs. T.Bee (R). District PVI: 49. No polls.
17. IN-09 (D-Hill): Lean Hold (105) B.Hill* (D) vs. M.Sodrel (R). District PVI: 43. Polling: Baron Hill (D) 51, Mike Sodrel (R) 37 (composite of 10/9 R2000 and 10/6 SUSA).
18. IL-14 (D-Foster): Lean Hold (105) B.Foster* (D) vs. J.Oberweis (R). District PVI: 45. No polls.
19. OR-05 (D-Open (Hooley)): Lean Hold (98) K.Schrader (D) vs. M.Erickson (R). District PVI: 51. No polls.
20. NY-20 (D-Gillibrand): Lean/Likely Hold (90) K.Gillibrand* (D) vs. S.Treadwell (R). District PVI: 47. No polls.
21. MN-01 (D-Walz): Likely Hold (75) T.Walz* (D) vs. D.Day (R). District PVI: 49. Polling: Tim Walz (D) 50, Dick Day (R) 32 (9/18 GOP poll).
22. CT-05 (D-Murphy): Likely Hold (60) C.Murphy* (D) vs. D.Cappiello (R). District PVI: 54. No polls.
23. TX-23 (D-Rodriguez): Likely Hold (60) C.Rodriguez* (D) vs. L.Larson (R). District PVI: 46. No polls.
24. KS-03 (D-Moore): Likely Hold (60) D.Moore* (D) vs. N.Jordan (R). District PVI: 46. No polls.
25. GA-12 (D-Barrow): Likely Hold (45) J.Barrow* (D) vs. J.Stone (R). District PVI: 52. No polls.
26. NH-02 (D-Hodes): Likely Hold (45) P.Hodes* (D) vs. J.Horn (R). District PVI: 53. Polling: Paul Hodes (D) 40, Jennifer Horn (R) 26 (composite of 3 non-partisan polls, 9/25-10/6)
27. OH-18 (D-Space): Likely Hold (45) Z.Space* (D) vs. F.Dailey (R). District PVI: 44. No polls.
28. IL-08 (D-Bean): Likely Hold (45) M.Bean* (D) vs. S.Greenberg (R). District PVI: 45. No polls.
29. NY-24 (D-Arcuri): Likely Hold (45) M.Arcuri* (D) vs. R.Hanna (R). District PVI: 49. No polls.
30. PA-08 (D-Murphy): Likely Hold (45) P.Murphy* (D) vs. T.Mannion (R). District PVI: 53. No polls.
31. NY-19 (D-Hall): Likely/Safe Hold (30) J.Hall* (D) vs. K.Lalor (R). District PVI: 49. No polls.
32. IN-02 (D-Donnelly): Safe Hold (15) J.Donnelly* (D) vs. L.Puckett (R). District PVI: 46. Polling: Joe Donnelly (D) 53, Luke Puckett (R) 35 (10/2 R2000)
33. TN-04 (D-Davis): Safe Hold (15) L.Davis* (D) vs. M.Lankford (R). District PVI: 45.5. No polls.
33. IN-08 (D-Ellsworth): Likely/Safe Hold (30) B.Ellsworth* (D) vs. G.Goode (R). District PVI: 41. No polls.
34. CT-02 (D-Courtney): Safe Hold (15) J.Courtney* (D) vs. S.Sullivan (R). District PVI: 58. Polling: Joe Courtney (D) 53, Sean Sullivan (R) 20 (J. Dineen 9/08)
35. ME-01 (D-Open (Allen)): Safe Hold (15) C.Pingree (D) vs. C.Summers (R). District PVI: 56. Polling: Chellie Pingree (D) 44, Charlie Summers (R) 33 (9/22 GOP poll)