Monday morning Nate Silver suggested, and I strongly agreed, that McCain was planning a "reboot" of his campaign leading into tonight's debate. It boiled down to that he was going to follow Kristol's advice "including some combination of (i) pledging to run a positive campaign; (ii) firing/demoting Steve Schmidt and or/Rick Davis; (iii) apologizing for his campaign's tone."
Clearly I was very, very wrong.
But, I think I know why...
I had assumed that McCain and his advisers were fundamentally rational when evaluating the current state of the campaign. Obviously they were terribly misguided and flawed in their approach to achieving campaign goals, but I thought the were at least looking at the polling and trying to adjust to reality. This is assuredly not true, and it was clearly proven tonight at the debate.
McCain's performance tonight was targeted directly at his base voters. I think Yglesias put it best tonight:
All told, a weird performance that seemed directed at people already inside the conservative bubble — people who think that when the public says it doesn’t like Bush, they mean they think Bush has spent too much money.
That was what stuck me the most during the debate. He was appealing to the wrong people. He certainly may have convinced those that were already going to vote for him anyway to support him even more, but I don't see how this was speaking to at anyone else at all. How did McCain's advisers not see this trainwreck coming?
Because they believe their own spin. They've been spinning it to the media and living in the Rush Limbaugh/NRO/Fox News echo chamber for so long (since 1994 and the Republican Revolution really) that they clearly believe their own horseshit. They simply do not accept the plain fact that party identification numbers have shifted in this country over the past 4 years. Therefore, there is no need to shift tactics in any way. It's like they actually believe Adam's brilliant quote: "I reject your reality and substitute my own."
I think about the people I know who are conservative-aligned... They watch Fox News. They listen to conservative talk news programs, if they listen to newsradio at all, and they tend to read more conservative (or at least mainstream exclusively) media online and in print. They might watch an occasional comedy program (I know more than a few registered Republicans who appreciate an occasional episode of The Daily Show), but in general their "hard news" comes almost exclusively from inside the "bubble", as Yglesias describes it. These same types of people are clearly advising John McCain.
They really think the people are really going to buy this Ayers and ACORN, mother's health isn't relevant, Obama's going to tax and fine you and ruin the economy crap they're selling! And why not? The Fox News people seem to be buying it!
And even more clearly, it has become apparent that John McCain is either one of them, or has totally surrendered to the members of that bubble. He has decided that, win or lose, he is going to stick to the decision he made in 2004 (clearly, when he started kissing up to the Bushies), and follow the Rovian playbook to its inevitable conclusion. Perhaps he believes the spin too, but, I don't know... It seems like he is angry because it isn't working, and he knows it. He is doing the tongue-jutting and sweating and eye-rolling and it seems almost like he doesn't buy it himself. It seems like he is angry at the young guy on the stage, and at the media, but most of all... He seems like he is angry at all of us because we're not buying it anymore. He doesn't understand why we stopped buying it, just when it was his turn to start selling it.
And it isn't fair.
Well, I'm sorry John McCain. Sometimes, life isn't fair. It certainly hasn't been for us over these past 14 years where the Republican party controlled one or both of the two elected branches of government.