There are nineteen days of campaigning to go. The debates are over. Obama looks like he's cruising. McCain looks like he's flailing. Except for Obama's 30 minute media buys a few days before the polls, there's nothing much else on the calendar. So what happens now?
Here are a few predictions for the final run.
Obama has a problem. Maintaining the level of interest in our attention deficit world. He'll use ads, he's got his media buys, he'll try to keep the stump stuff varied and soundbite heavy. The media will help. They want everyone to be an election junkie, and now's the time people start focusing, so the more that's going on the better.
Expect Joe the Plumber to become the poster boy of McCain's campaign even if he if there are problems with him being a GOP mascot. It's almost certain that he's going to show up endorsing John McCain in an ad and might even appear on the stump next to Sarah or maybe even John. It's a gimmick, but it's hard to imagine worried voters buying into it. Hopefully they'll vet this guy a little better than they did Sarah Palin, but regardless the idea will more than likely blow up in their faces. His apparent comment that Obama danced around issues better than "Sammy Davis Jr." is not a good sign.
Expect Obama to counter with a Colin Powell endorsement, and put the lid on it. Word about this is very encouraging. It would really help to seal the deal, and during the pre-election quiet time would garner an awful lot of attention. Powell has been looking for his revenge on Bush for making him the Iraq patsy, and this is a great "Et Tu Brute" opportunity.
Expect Bristol Palin and Levi Johnston to do something 'cute'. A shotgun marriage is possible and will backfire terribly. Things are getting desperate for McCain. Obama and most of the population outside the tabloids will ignore it. One thing's for sure it's hard to make a good "Brangelina" or "Bennifer" out of this combo. Bristolevi anyone?
Expect more on the Economy, stupid. As the focus shifts from credit crunch to main street recession Obama will keep the economy front and center as it continues it's swandive into the toilet. He's signalled as much in the final debate. No need to deviate now. It's all anyone's thinking about.
Expect Obama to drive home his advantage in the battleground states tirelessly with a ton of events every day, and his campaign will enter the 'closing' phase of its ground game. The campaign hasn't bragged about the depth of its campaign on a local level, but we'll start seeing more and more evidence of it in the days to come and the media will pick it up. McCain's weak campaign will be more in evidence as the weeks pass.
Expect McCain's hackneyed tax and spend cliches to keep falling on deaf ears, and his complete schizophrenia will get even worse, as he is forced to defend more and more once safe red states from the Obama juggernaut.
Expect the famous GOP base to start to lose heart and think about staying home. That could further strengthen Obama's lead. This will be prompted by the Conservative movement imploding, and vicious blame attacks beginning about now.
Expect to hear more about early voting turnout and exit polling. It's already showing landslide leads for Obama. The media will love that stuff, and further create GOP hopelessness.
Expect a huge but totally ineffective "same old crap but dressed up" ad blitz from McCain as he empties his war chest with some really over the top stuff in the last week or two. Not sure the RNC hasn't diverted funds to down-ticket races, but if not, they'll add their weight to the attack. The ad blitz will probably be accompanied by an awful lot of bluster from the McCain campaign, but it will fizzle out like everything else they've tried.
Expect the attack to be about voter fraud. "The Democrats are trying to steal the election". GOP lawyers are fanning out to every state to challlenge new registrations, and grind the election to a halt. And the story is only going to get bigger. The fact that it's based on smoke and mirrors is beside the point. Lots more talk to come on this. The GOP will hang heir hat on this issue and try to spread seeds of doubt. Of course they'll have to do it without much evidence which could be a big problem.
Expect zilch from GOP 527s. None of their ads have really connected. That's likely to continue. My guess is that they're not going to waste the ad spend on a race that they think is lost.
Expect no new dirt on Obama. It's hard to imagine Steve Schmidt hasn't got all there is on Obama by now. Maybe he's waiting but my guess is that the tank is empty. And then there's a credibility issue. Even if he did have something big (highly unlikely), after all the dirt we've seen from his campaign, it might not seem plausible, especially if it's delivered less than two weeks before the big day.
Expect the media to start the 'countdown', the polls will start flying in and will be parsed to the point of absurdity.
Expect the "Bradley Effect" to become the phrase du jour replacing the now lame "game changer". The McCain campaign will love all the talk about Bradley's '82 Gubernatorial campaign. It's a little free racism for them. Obama's people will squelch it. And by the way, expect no significant Bradley effect.
Expect to hear an awful lot about how the election is "breaking?" Four debate victories, a powerful presidental brand established, calm under pressure, trust on the economy, holding his own on national security, more likability, and strong approval ratings will probably deliver Obama far more than half of the undecideds. At this point McCain needs to pound Obama on the undecideds to shift the race in his favor. That ain't gonna happen.
Expect what we're already seeing. The conventional wisdom is that the race will tighten, but McCain's run out of ways to change the narrative. It's hard to see how his slide will be reversed. It will probably just solidify.
Expect the Unexpected. Not. There will be much more talk about 'what could happen' to change the race, rather than what has happened. Lot's of blognot about Bin Laden being captured or killed, the threat of a terror attack on US soil, and the term 'October Surprise' will make its tired appearance into media chatter.
Expect Obama to be more disciplined than ever. He's already telling his peep not to be complacent. That is only the beginning. We're about to see his campaign leadership in action.
Expect this thing to break for Obama, big time.
As for the weather, who knows....