I've written many diaries about the importance of Florida's I-4 corridor to Obama's chances of victory in the state. Running across the center of the state, from the Tampa Bay region through Orlando to Daytona Beach, the I-4 corridor is up for grabs in this year's presidential campaign. At the western edge of the corridor sits Sarasota County, a traditional Republican stronghold that George Bush won by 13 points in 2004 and that hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since FDR. So imagine my surprise when I learned today in the St. Petersburg Times that three different polls have shown the race tied or Obama just slightly behind in Sarasota County. Not surprisingly, there's a lot going on in Sarasota County and the rest of the I-4 corridor right now, both good (including a cool Women for Obama "Bridge" rally) and bad (Dem Dem-leaning voters seeing their registrations rejected in disproportionate numbers). Jump down for more.
Let me start off by saying that the three polls showing the presidential race to be a dead heat in Sarasota County are all internal Republican polls that have been semi-leaked to the local media, but they seem reliable.
"The Presidential ballot is a statistical tie (45% McCain/43% Obama) in the district," pollster Glenn Bolger writes in a memo to the National Republican Congressional District.
I should also point out that even though I just learned about these polls today in the Times, they are about two weeks old. And even though I was surprised by the news, it turns out (not surprisingly) that the Obama campaign has had its sights on Sarasota for a long time. Last July, in fact, the Bradenton Herald published an article in which Obama's Florida director, Steve Schale, explained why he thought Sarasota was winnable for Obama. For one thing, internal Dem polling showed that more than 60% of Sarasota County voters said they were unhappy with the general direction of the country, so that's a group for whom Obama's message of change could be appealing.
Sarasota's voter registration numbers also tell a story of change. Although registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 46%-32%, since 2000 Democratic voter registrations have grown 18% and independent voters have grown nearly 39%, while Republican registrations have decreased slightly. Schale says the registrations show a "distinct move toward the middle" of the political spectrum in Sarasota, which is backed up by recent elections.
Election results since 2004 also show why Schale sees hope for Obama in Sarasota. Although Betty Castor lost her bid for a U.S. Senate seat and Jan Schneider lost her race for Congress in 2004, both Democratic women won the majority of the votes north of Clark Road in Sarasota. Castor won 53 percent of the vote in her race against Republican Mel Martinez and Schneider won 50 percent against Republican Katherine Harris.
In 2006, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, congressional hopeful Christine Jennings and Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink all beat Republican rivals, not just in north Sarasota but countywide. The victories stunned state party leaders.
"It all made us want to spend more time in Sarasota," said Schale, who was the Florida field director for state House candidates in 2006. "Maybe we underestimated just how much Sarasota moved."
He said it is clear Sarasota is not the conservative haven that past Democratic campaigns may have written off. Instead, he said, Sarasota is proving to be a fiscally conservative place that is more socially moderate -- or even liberal -- than once thought.
As one sign of the energy for Obama in Sarasota, the Sarasota Women for Obama-Biden group is holding an Obama "Bridge" Rally this Sunday, October 19, across the John Ringling Causeway Bridge. More than 700 people have already signed up for the rally, and organizers have told city officials to expect double that number to show up. (Details here).
Also, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are going to be in the central Florida area next Monday, October 20, to kick-off the first day of early voting. No details yet, but the Bradenton Herald reports that Obama is expected to do an event in Tampa, Hillary is expected to do an event in Broward County and the two are planning to appear together in Orlando. How cool will that be?
If you live in the I-4 corridor and have any time to spare, please consider doing some GOTV work for Obama. Or if you're outside our area, maybe an hour of phonebanking? Kos has talked about crushing the Republicans' spirit, and in Florida perhaps the best way to do that would be to take Sarasota County!
Here are a few other Florida tidbits you might find interesting:
- You may have already heard the latest about Henry Sargeant, the finance chairman of the Florida Republican Party and a major fund-raiser for McCain. Yesterday Henry Waxman accused Sargeant of
war profiteering. What you may not know is that
Sargeant was a fraternity brother of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's at Florida State University in the 1970s and has raised thousands of dollars for Crist through the years, as the St. Petersburg Times reported today.
- Florida's new "no match, no vote" law has prompted the rejection of thousands of new voter registrations, and it appears that the people most likely to be rejected are college students, Hispanics and African Americans. The Orlando Sentinel reports today that in Orange County,
areas around the University of Central Florida and Rollins College are where the most voter registrations were rejected. In addition, more than a third rejected in Orange County were Hispanic, which is double the proportion of Hispanic residents in the county. And the St. Petersburg Times reports today that
Hispanics and blacks account for more than half of the people in Florida whose voter registration forms were rejected. Democrats were four times more likely to have their registrations rejected than Republicans.
Clearly, the Republicans are not going to give up Florida without a fight. So let's give them a fight.
UPDATE:
Today the St. Petersburg Times posted on its website a list of all the voter registrations in FL that have been rejected under the new state law, as of Oct. 10. Please encourage anyone you know who newly registered to check for their name on this list.