I was listening to the Jim Bohannon last Tuesday Night and he had on Allan Lichtman on his show. Yes, I know he is a righty, but I love to listen and blog the righties when they are in meltdown, sorry I am sick! Professor Lichtman of American University has authored a few books on elections, one of them being "The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency" and he gave his view of the election, to here the program click on the link below:
http://www.jimbohannonshow.com/...
below I have added the 13 keys along with my analysis and poll on the keys.
Professor Lichtman came up with the keys in 1981 as a way of predicting accurately presidential elections well ahead of the election. His keys work for every popular election vote since 1860. The thirteen question must be answered with Yes (True) or No (False), if the incumbant scores false on 6 or more keys they will lose the election.
I am going to do my own interpretation of the questions and predict the next winner of this Novemeber 4th.
1. The incumbent party holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election. False (1-0) Democrats took over in 2006
2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. False (2-0) McCain almost lost nomination to Romney
3. The incumbent-party candidate is the current president. True (2-1) Bush is president
4. There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy. True (2-2)
3rd Parties are not a factor
5. The economy is not in recession during the campaign. False (3-2) Economy is teetering on a Depression
6. Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. False (4-2)
Economic Growth is anemic
7. The administration has effected major policy changes during the term. True (4-3) Financial bailouts and the surge
8. There has been no major social unrest during the term. False (5-3) Foreclosures and Bankruptcy, say no more
9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. False (6-3) Attorney Gate, Scooter Libby, etc.
10. There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term. False (7-3) Afganistan is a big failure and Iraq is a tie at best
11. There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term. False (8-3) Ah, define success . . . Mission Accomplished
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero. False (9-3) POW, old man and spunky VP canidate - not!
13. The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero. False (10-3) Ooooobama!
My score may differ from the Professors, but I think they are subjective and subject to interpretation especially in a close election. I don't know if this system is good in predicting a landslide, but I think my score of 10-3 might be pointing that way! I have provided a poll and would like to see what everyone else scores, but in the end it looks like a Obama victory even Professor Lichtman predicted his victory!