Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/15-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trendlines)
Coleman (R) 39
Franken (D) 41
Barkley (I) 18
Razor thin, and don't count out Barkely. Third party candidates have a habit of sneaking in when the top two candidates nuke each other, like Franken and Coleman are currently doing. I don't think anyone really knows what to think about this race. It's a serious clusterfuck.
On the other hand, the presidential is over:
McCain (R) 39
Obama (D) 52
On the web:
Al Franken for Senate
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MINNESOTA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Minnesota Poll was conducted from October 14 through October 15, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 294 (49%)
Women 306 (51%)
Democrats 241 (40%)
Republicans 185 (31%)
Independents/Other 174 (29%)
18-29 114 (19%)
30-44 198 (33%)
45-59 191 (32%)
60+ 97 (16%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Al Franken? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 35% 24% 24% 4%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 48% 48% 4%
MEN 45% 52% 3%
WOMEN 51% 44% 5%
DEMOCRATS 74% 22% 4%
REPUBLICANS 19% 78% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 43% 52% 5%
18-29 53% 44% 3%
30-44 47% 48% 5%
45-59 45% 51% 4%
60+ 46% 50% 4%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Norm Coleman? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 30% 30% 26% 2%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 42% 56% 2%
MEN 45% 54% 1%
WOMEN 39% 58% 3%
DEMOCRATS 22% 77% 1%
REPUBLICANS 73% 25% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 38% 59% 3%
18-29 38% 60% 2%
30-44 40% 58% 2%
45-59 45% 53% 2%
60+ 45% 52% 3%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Al Franken the Democrat Norm Coleman the Republican or Dean Barkley an Independent?
FRANKEN COLEMAN BARKLEY UNDECIDED
ALL 41% 39% 18% 2%
MEN 37% 43% 19% 1%
WOMEN 45% 35% 17% 3%
DEMOCRATS 75% 8% 15% 2%
REPUBLICANS 5% 85% 8% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 32% 33% 32% 3%
18-29 44% 36% 19% 1%
30-44 41% 39% 18% 2%
45-59 39% 43% 16% 2%
60+ 40% 39% 18% 3%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 52% 39% 4% 5%
MEN 49% 41% 5% 5%
WOMEN 55% 37% 3% 5%
DEMOCRATS 84% 7% 3% 6%
REPUBLICANS 9% 82% 3% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 54% 38% 5% 3%
18-29 55% 36% 4% 5%
30-44 53% 38% 5% 4%
45-59 48% 43% 4% 5%
60+ 52% 39% 3% 6%