I'm sure you've seen this very silly SUSA poll from Florida:
John McCain 49%
Barack Obama 47%
Unsure 2%
Other 2%
Source: SUSA
As you probably know, this poll claims that McCain is going to get 22% of the African-American vote?
I'm not simply calling bullshit; I'm calling "What planet are you on?" But then, I'm white (well, Jewish). Maybe I don't know any better. That's what canvassing is for...
This afternoon I went out canvassing in Collier City, a neighborhood in Pompano Beach in northeast Broward County. Collier City is overwhelmingly African-American. I knocked on about 80 doors, and talked to people at 53 homes. Virtually everybody I talked to was nice, friendly, and a few offered me water (we had bottles already).
Of the 53 homes, we had 47 for Obama, 1 leaning towards Obama, 1 undecided, 1 for McCain - and he wasn't African-American - 2 who either couldn't vote, and one woman who "didn't get involved in politics".
Lessee, even discounting the leaner, that's 47-1, with 1 undecided. I brought up the 22% poll number to a few people, and they laughed at it.
More than half the people I talked to will be voting early. It's my belief that the election in Florida will be over long before November 4, but of course that's no reason to stop working and fighting for every vote.
Now, maybe every block in Collier City isn't like the one I canvassed, and certainly the African-American community is not a homogeneous voting bloc. But George W. Bush got only 13% of the African-American vote. Even if we assume McCain equals that figure, there goes McCain's "lead". But if what I saw is typical, then SUSA is off by a country mile, and the 4-point lead for Obama the other pollsters have measured for the state is a lot closer to the mark than McCain +2.
Meanwhile, I can't remember the last McCain ad I saw on television. But Obama is everywhere in Broward. But I digress...
Some of the people didn't know about early voting, and others had heard something but didn't know the whole story. One man didn't get his voter's registration info back yet - he'll now be contacting the Supervisor of Elections to get their cards. I also let them know that by voting early it didn't matter if they had their cards or if they had just moved from a different part of Broward - all you have to do is go to an early voting place with ID and you're good to go.
They all thanked me for coming and for helping getting them the information. A few even said it was divine Providence that brought me and my wife to their doors. People, canvassing works - get out and hit the pavement.