- Its still a dead heat in Ohio and other essential states.
- Yes, the Bradley (or Wilder) effect -- nobody really knows if this is going to be a factor. The fact that a few political science professors or whomever say that its not a factor just makes me more concerned.
- If we lose, it's because we peaked too soon.
- Irrational, exuberant triumphialism on too many blogs.
- I think Americans like divided government. Everyone knows the Dems are kicking ass in Congressional races, especially the US Senate. Not wanting the Dems to have clear control of the government will give an excuse to many voters who don't really want to pull the lever for Obama anyway.
- In big state primaries like Ohio & Pennsylvania last spring, Obama did not close well.
- I fear that conventional wisdom will be true, again, that the voters we are strongest with will have poor turnout rates.
- Late October surprise, like a YouTube from Bin Laden as we saw 4 years ago.
- While the mainstream media storyline is all about a few lazy ACORN employees, the real fraudsters, the experienced ones, will steal Florida & Ohio again. Paging Karl Rove and all his buddies. Thier side has real experience!
- Somehow, I have no idea how, Sarah Palen does something to capture the public imagination again. Maybe she dumps the first dude and runs off with Joe the Plumber. The media always builds people up and then tears them down. Sarah is getting ready for her second act.
Anyway, I'm still full of hope. Don't get me wrong. It's just that overconfidence sucks. Let's keep our eyes on the prize, keep working like crazy to turn out the vote and get our supporters to Vote Early wherever possible and just hold off on the celebrating until it is signed, sealed & delivered.