As expected, we are starting to see an incremental increase in polling results as we edge ever closer to Election Day 2008. On a day with a flood of news events (some of which can be expected to dominate the headlines for at least a few days), we get the usual "six pack" of national tracking polls, plus new numbers in 18 individual contests.
The conclusion? If there was a McCain "surge" in the last few days of polling, it already was showing signs of waning even before the Powell endorsement hit the news.
The "six pack" of trackers, that had shown some movement in McCain's direction over the past few days, edged ever so slightly back in Barack Obama's direction today.
Obama had lost over a point off his lead since Wednesday's debate, going from 6.8% on Tuesday to 5.7% yesterday. Today, that Obama lead is at 5.8%. Gains in the Gallup poll (which went from Obama +4 to Obama +7) and the Rasmussen poll (which went from Obama +5 to Obama +6) were offset by drops in the Obama lead by Zogby (which went from Obama +4 to Obama +3) as well as IBD/TIPP (which went from Obama +7 to Obama +5).
Both Research 2000 (Obama +7) and Hotline/Diageo (Obama +7) held steady.
Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%
Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%
Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47%, McCain 42%
Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 45%
We are finally starting to see a variety of state polls that took place after the 3rd presidential debate. The bottom line is that we do not see a great deal of movement here. McCain has a couple of numbers that his team will like (Ohio and West Virginia), but there are also others that show Obama doing very well (Minnesota and Wisconsin).
In all, there were seven states with new numbers. Looking at our measurement of momentum (this poll vs. the Pollster.com trend composite), Senator Obama beats the spread in four of these states, while John McCain does so in three of these states.
KENTUCKY--Research 2000: McCain 53%, Obama 39%, Others 3% (Obama)
MINNESOTA #1--Star Tribune: Obama 52%, McCain 41% (Obama)
MINNESOTA #2--Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 39%, Others 4%
MONTANA--Research 2000: McCain 49%, Obama 45%, Others 3% (Obama)
OHIO--Mason Dixon: McCain 46%, Obama 45% (McCain)
PENNSYLVANIA--Muhlenberg: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, Others 3% (McCain)
WEST VIRGINIA #1--PPP: McCain 50%, Obama 42% (McCain)
WEST VIRGINIA #2--Mason Dixon: McCain 47%, Obama 41%
WISCONSIN--Mason Dixon: Obama 51%, McCain 39% (Obama)
The pickings here, aside from the DKos/R2000 polls diaried on the front page, are reasonably slim. We get a pair of GOP internals, including the one that inspired the NRSC to stick around in Louisiana, and one for everyone's favorite McCarthyite. We do get one public poll of a House race, and it gives us the same result in Wyoming that we got from R2000 last week: Trauner by a point.
KY-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 46%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 42%
LA-SEN--On Message (R): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 47%, John Kennedy (R) 42%
MN-SEN--Research 2000: Al Franken (D) 41%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 39%, Dean Barkley (I) 18%
MN-06--P.O.S. (R): Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) 44%, El Tinklenberg (D) 33%, Others 8%
MT-GOV--Research 2000: Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) 57%, Bob Brown (R) 40%
MT-AL--Research 2000: Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) 52%, John Driscoll (D) 38%
WY-SEN A--Mason Dixon: Sen. John Barrasso (R) 69%, Nick Carter (D) 22%
WY-SEN B--Mason Dixon: Sen. Mike Enzi (R) 72%, Chris Rothfuss (D) 20%
WY-AL--Mason Dixon: Gary Trauner (D) 44%, Cynthia Lummis (R) 43%
Tomorrow's edition of F.T.P. should be awfully interesting, because I fully expect to see the poll volume ramp up considerably over these last two weeks. It would not shock me to see 40 different individual polls tomorrow.
But for today, that's the ballgame. Have a good (rest of the) weekend. As always, if you have some new numbers, throw them at us in the comments section...