I went to Iraq in 2003, about a week after U.S. troops entered Baghdad. I was there about 6 weeks, reporting on the Iraqi health system. It was before there was systematic violence against Westerners, so I was free to explore Baghdad during that time, riding in local taxis. The only security measures I took were to wear a chador to hide my video camera and a headscarf to cover up my blonde hair.
As a result, I met dozens of people there, both Iraqis and Americans, and taped a bunch of them.
I am still in contact with some of them and they tell me what's going on in Iraq...
So here's what I'm hearing now from Iraqis...
In Baghdad,they attribute the reduction in violence to the restraint of Al-Sadr rather than the American surge. They say the improvement of conditions in the provinces is a result of the Sunni tribal leaders turning against Al-Qaeda.
According to them, significant violence now centers in the northern part of the country, in and around oil-rich Mosul and Kirkuk. I asked my friends about the killing of Christians, resulting in the flight of several hundred people from their homes to neighboring regions and further. It is possible that the the number of fleeing Christians has risen to as many as a few thousand.
The CW is that Al-Qaeda cells are behind the attacks on Christians. But my Iraqi friends tell me that word on the street is that the Kurds are actually responsible. I'm not sure if these rumors truly reflect the facts on the ground or come from Sunnis disowning the actions of Sunni insurgents.
It is difficult to imagine what the motivation of the Kurds would be to attack Christians. Mosul and Kirkuk are Sunni areas; Christians are a tiny minority. I can see the Kurds wanting to move the Sunnis out in order to control the oil resources, but AFAIK Christians don't have anything the Kurds would want.
In any case, the increasing violence in the northern areas of Iraq don't spell much good for anyone. I hope we are getting our troops out of that country in the near future because the place is just another Middle Eastern powder keg at the center of a vast regional arms bazaar.