Watching MSNBC and just saw that Suffolk University has just released polling data for Ohio and Missouri. Needless to say these are two very important states and crucial to our work to break the back of the Republican Party. Follow me below the fold for the info.
Here's a link to a news story on the latest polling from Suffolk University. Here's the crucial part of the story though: the numbers.
With just over two weeks left before the presidential election, voters in the key state of Ohio are giving the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden a 9-point lead (51 percent - 42 percent) over the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.
In Missouri, McCain led by 1 percent (45 percent to 44 percent) statewide. He also led the bellwether test of Platte County, Mo.
The poll also shows some interesting data on what is motivating voters in these two states. Most importantly (for me, at least) it shows that Palin is not as big a help as everyone seems to think. A very small percentage of voters in Missouri and Ohio are voting for McCain because of his running mate. Just goes to show you that people really are voting for the top of the ticket, and they're voting for Barack Obama.
Update: I forgot to make a big deal about the most important number from this poll. Obama is over 50% in Ohio. That is HUGE! So please, don't forget to give to keep the momentum going!
Update 2: There have been some questions about how good this poll is and whether these numbers can be trusted. Suffolk University hasn't posted the crosstabs yet, but when they do (and they seem to be pretty good about doing it), they will be posted here.
In addition, here is some more information on the poll from the news story linked above.
The Suffolk University Ohio poll was conducted Thursday, Oct. 16, 2008, through Sunday, Oct. 19, 2008. The Missouri poll was conducted Friday, Oct. 17, 2008, through Sunday, Oct. 19, 2008. The margin of error on each study of 600 is +/- 4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from both surveys were likely voters from Ohio and Missouri.
Separate from the statewide poll, there were 312 respondents from the Ohio bellwether of Perry County and 204 respondents from the Missouri bellwether of Platte County.
Update 3: There have been some questions about how reliable Suffolk University is. The answer is, well, kind of reliable. They're not the highest by any stretch of the imagination, but they're not the lowest. Here's a link to 538.com's pollster rankings to peruse at your leisure. h/t to RichM
Update 4: Cross tabs are up. I haven't gotten a chance to go through them yet. I wanted to put the link up first so everyone can pore through them together. Here you go!